Weinstein Trading and Fading

Bob,

Do you ever fade the pullbacks? I'm having a tough time this week with "reversion to mean", as the stocks I'm trading have been caught in strong trends. However, if I were able to catch a pullback, then I would have been o.k.

Of course, the million dollar question is how to distinguish a pullback from a reversal...

Walt
 
I thought yesterday was a great day after I closed out the 30Y futures option but today was even better

The real amazing thing is the numbers in regards to the number of shares I am trading. I am trading small and will continue to do so until the end of the month. Next month if this month is positive I will increase size. I am still long C and it continues to do great. No plans on covering anytime soon. Even with the news of the fed looking at liquidating their shares the stock is still moving higher. Nothing like tons of cheap money washing around to keep a bull happy. The 30Y Ts though took it on the chin again today. It looks like the bounce I thought we would get today did not materialize. I thought a day later the Portugal downgrade would be shaken off but with Greece about to implode it doesn’t take a math wiz to figure out where interest rates are most likely going to go with the US. The good news for Americans is that their health care costs will be going down with the new law in place. I am sure the hard working people in DC will be able to keep the costs down much like the costs of college tuition is kept down year after year. Maybe the government will save money like some are saying they will. Look at all the savings from the hugely profitable post office that has a monopoly on first class mail ( The USPS is losing billions of dollars every year while private companies like UPS and FedEx have to compete without first class mail and still make a profit).

Ok, off the soap box and on to todays trades.
AMZN intraday overbought but I only traded 50 shares and then became busy with another so I just closed it out as I was about to enter into another trade and didn’t want to mess with it when I could just walk at breakeven. + 4

BBY wow, what can I say. Great BW1 setup and made full target as well as scalped some shares. super trade the whole way. + 231

BMRN my only B8 signal today that was fully qualified. Great trade but gain was limited due to small size traded. + 209

CAAS unqualified gapup small size + 44

GRMN unqual B8 that broke trendline and took it for a small ride before having to leave early today + 76

HGG intraday overbought stopped out + 6

ITMN B8 almost qualified but after its run up I took the trade at a lower level but kept the size small. Missed getting fully qualified by pennies two times and I was able to get a lot more than full target with it. + 179

LULU unqual gap up and also a long when it started to show a base of support. I made some gains both on the short and the long. I would have liked to have traded it into the close but had to leave early. + 175

TGI intraday overbought that I hit right at the top and while I left a huge amount on the table I was able to get a lot more than target so I am happy. Only 200 shares for a gain of over 80 cents. + 162

left early for a sons school program and flat other than C which is doing well. yesterday was the best day of the month and I get to say the same thing again today.

+ 1090
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

BBY wow, what can I say. Great BW1 setup and made full target as well as scalped some shares. super trade the whole way. + 231
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yupp BBY, BMRN was just your type of setup :D

for me too good day, played only on the short side in morning- RTN, LULU, BBY, NTES

best day it may be for this month, but we are waiting for some real fireworks :) congrats
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Nice one, Bob! A while back someone here discussed trading ZB with me. But right now I'm addicted to POT, which I've always said is a gateway trade. I'm starting to believe it because I've been hanging around the crack addicts at CL Redux and am getting an overwhelming urge to inhale. :D
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LMAO....gateway trade......lol

Its official, POT is going to get a prop vote November in Cali. I would have waited until 2012 when they really need the money and obama running full speed in the land of sunshine trying to get the vote but it should at least be a race if the pot heads dont forget to vote........LOL

Just what ever you do. make DAMN sure that if you see someone pull out a needle and say try this its great and we call it ES options where you get more leverage that you just say NO
 
Quote from taclander:

Ahh, we have you slipping slowly to the dark side of futures. Next thing you know an es trade will slip in there, and then we have you. :D I used to trade the ZB most everyday. It was a great intraday trend contract.
Hope the little one is doing great, as well as the rest of the family, and school too.
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Futures have been a very very bad thing for me at times. It proved to me in no uncertain terms that you can be sooooo right on the money but if your timing is just a little bit off your in a world of hurt.

I learned about a place called Tienanmen square in the summer of 1989 when I was short the dollar against the Yen because I felt the yen would continue gaining over time (it was about 130ish to a dollar then). along with geography lessons I also learned the term "flight to safety"

Years later I would visit Tienanmen Square several times and I have to give that kid credit for standing in front of the tank like he did.

Anyway, interest rates will tend to go up in my opinion. either the economy grows and the rates go up or we just borrow until the rates go up. either way I think the odds favor it and I am selling calls on any rally.

Thanks for asking, Lil Mike is doing great and growing fast. He seems about as happy as can be and he should. He hit the mom lotto even if he doesnt know it yet. (kinda makes up for me....) LOL
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

in the summer of 1989
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if my memory is still working i think we met in the summer of 1989 in water street ... (i remembered watching the tiananmen square's incident on T.V during my summer school holidays) i had no idea you already started trading in 1989?? wow ... i started trading much, much, much.... later than you.

anyway, those were the crazy, foolish, naive, silly, care-free days ...:D

so we known each other for about 21 years now (we lost contact for 18 years) but still you are my old buddy lol :)

glad to hear you're doing better in trading and pls send my regards to your wife and your 3 boys ... if you and your family are visiting the shanghai world expo 2010 ... just let me know ... don't have to worry about booking hotel etc... coz you have a friend in asia and baidu helps her to buy properties in china and Japan... and she's a great host to all her friends and their family from overseas.:D
 
Today started out well and then I was beat up

Faded VTIV and was my best trade of the month. nice gap up trade but I did enter in early and Will be adjusting to not have that happen in future trades. + 1134

What I thought was going to be a great trade ended up chewing me to pieces all day. After just getting done with VTIV I traded FINL with larger size as the setup appeared to be about as good as it gets. I did not notice that the opening price was not qualified and so I should have taken a pass. When I did notice it I ran some numbers and decided that it should still more likely than not retrace so I continued with the fade. I did start to stop out when it hit 17 a share but it didn’t go any higher so I didn’t fully stop out. I also looked at covering during the close but actually added a few more shares to the short as the odds still favor it retracing on Monday. I think I would have been ok had I not been so aggressive with the gain I wanted or more aggressive with trading around the core. It did move back and forth a lot in a very tight but increasing range which is why I started to stop out at 17 but that also could have been great for scalping if I was more aggressive. I will probably take a little bit more of a hit on Monday as I scale out of it but hopefully at a lower price than the close today. – 2708

Closed out C at a nice gain but wanted to trade around the core and it didn’t move back down. Will try to get back long on Monday again
SMOD gapup trade small size and stopped out + 13

- 1240
 
sorry to hear your story.
if I did a nice trade in the opening. I will stop. the human brain is kind of odd: like to generalize experience.
that is the reason why the first trade will affect the next trade. if I faded the first one, I failed, then even there is a perfect fade there, and I strongly felt it, I will hesitate. if I did a nice one in the first place, even there is a nasty one there, I see a perfect one and I go ahead without any second thought, then you know I gave back my gain, or in the worst I am so sure about that just like you and double my size, ooops

the best way is stop after the first winning or failure, let the mind clear. I shorted SMOD too. but when I saw ABIO shoot so nicely, I saw sweet crude was dropping, I could not hold my short any more, so I walk away from the market after I done with crude and smod.




Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Today started out well and then I was beat up

Faded VTIV and was my best trade of the month. nice gap up trade but I did enter in early and Will be adjusting to not have that happen in future trades. + 1134

What I thought was going to be a great trade ended up chewing me to pieces all day. After just getting done with VTIV I traded FINL with larger size as the setup appeared to be about as good as it gets. I did not notice that the opening price was not qualified and so I should have taken a pass. When I did notice it I ran some numbers and decided that it should still more likely than not retrace so I continued with the fade. I did start to stop out when it hit 17 a share but it didn’t go any higher so I didn’t fully stop out. I also looked at covering during the close but actually added a few more shares to the short as the odds still favor it retracing on Monday. I think I would have been ok had I not been so aggressive with the gain I wanted or more aggressive with trading around the core. It did move back and forth a lot in a very tight but increasing range which is why I started to stop out at 17 but that also could have been great for scalping if I was more aggressive. I will probably take a little bit more of a hit on Monday as I scale out of it but hopefully at a lower price than the close today. – 2708

Closed out C at a nice gain but wanted to trade around the core and it didn’t move back down. Will try to get back long on Monday again
SMOD gapup trade small size and stopped out + 13

- 1240
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No two ways about it. I hated the trade almost right after I saw an errror in it. BUT the chart looks so overbought I felt it was the best thing to do to ride out the storm. Monday will either show it was right or I will dump it and take the hit. barring a gap up I will at least walk away with being up for the month.

So with that being said how can I be upset with it. Granted it was not totally qualified but it had many things going for it that what would otherwise be qualified do not. It has the classic blowoff top and the news is out so I have to go with what I have seen so many times. It looks like a lion on the day of and a big pussy ...cat on the next trading day.

Again, not fully qualified but the gap up trades have been so great that even if I do take a hit with this one I am still very happy with the results overall and will not change a thing. I will however write up the code for the signal so the chart gives a yea or nay without me doing math on the fly and messing it up like this one. Although I think I would have ended up short this stock at one point anyway

I dont allow a good or bad trade in a day change the way I decide if I am going to trade another signal. If I get the signal I trade it and nothing else matters. I did trade it in much larger size though and that was a problem to be sure in this case. overall though I was planning on increasing size at the end of the month as this one was and still is going well.


Quote from trader198:

sorry to hear your story.
if I did a nice trade in the opening. I will stop. the human brain is kind of odd: like to generalize experience.
that is the reason why the first trade will affect the next trade. if I faded the first one, I failed, then even there is a perfect fade there, and I strongly felt it, I will hesitate. if I did a nice one in the first place, even there is a nasty one there, I see a perfect one and I go ahead without any second thought, then you know I gave back my gain, or in the worst I am so sure about that just like you and double my size, ooops

the best way is stop after the first winning or failure, let the mind clear. I shorted SMOD too. but when I saw ABIO shoot so nicely, I saw sweet crude was dropping, I could not hold my short any more, so I walk away from the market after I done with crude and smod.
More...
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

No two ways about it. I hated the trade almost right after I saw an errror in it. BUT the chart looks so overbought I felt it was the best thing to do to ride out the storm. Monday will either show it was right or I will dump it and take the hit. barring a gap up I will at least walk away with being up for the month.
More...

FINL was sustaining near highs so well around 11-11:30 at price 16.40 I got a BUY signal.... ofcourse I did'nt, it's a thin wild stock, personally I trade such charts only on the short side. But RW, it was really strong at that time and too dangerous to hold short.
 
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