Weinstein Trading and Fading

fading is not a good trading style if the market is in a relentless rally or drop, i.e., trending market.

better find some no-where (range-bound) stocks, like selling the resistance or buy supoort will be more productive using fading strategy.







Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Increased size a bit and took a hit

REV gapped up this morning and I tried to fade it and it never retraced until it then later on gave a overbought signal. The actual overbought signal turned out to be fine but it was too late and more importantly Interactive brokers didn’t have shares for me to short. I did start to cover some at a loss during its one and only retracement and that actually lowered my total loss. REV moved back up and I covered most of the rest near 14.55. some thing of note, the daily MAs really don’t offer much support for the trade to begin with and in dollar amounts the gap was not that big either so I will be backtesting to see if this requires a change in requirements or this was just one of those I have to take with the good ones. My biggest frustration was the lack of shares though as others in the chatroom where able to short.
- 6115

EWBC was much like REV in that it moved up a lot today but the trade worked out well for me. This was a gap up trade as well.
+ 345

TRW was an trade based on being overbought. I am still short and carrying over until tomorrow. I made a mistake in size and corrected it with one trade near breakeven. I expect to be in pretty good shape with this tomorrow and its possible I could end up covering some in AH as I left my bids live.
+ 1
RSH was a gap up trade that I stop loss exited with. It actually met my target but I was looking to see if it would give more and when it didnt and when back up I exited out.
+ 19

So it was a setback today but not great compared to how I have done in the past 7 weeks.

- 5749
- 2442 Month
 
Quote from trader_david:

shorted some from IB today at 15.23 REV with 3kshares, REV is really way too much. will fall.

now it is shortable! will lbe loose quickly

Nice short. i looked at it also when it went above 15 today but IB was showing only 15K shares available to short which seemed like a very small amount compared to others when I check. Also the traded float is so small that I did not get to excited to jump in that one again. Seems like the same 200 shares are just going back and forth. So I took a pass

Traded for a large part of the day but not much to show for it

Started out with closing out TRW at a small gain.
+190

didn’t get much for signals and the gap ups didn’t look so good except for PCLN which is a monster price stock at now over 200 per share.
Took a small loss but perhaps I could have done much better if I would have been more aggressive. The moves are so big that $1 price moves in under 10 seconds where not all that uncommon.
- 167
QGEN + 3
FOSL + 38

+ 64
- 2378 Month
 
Quote from plan:

Ok I understand your day now, you're a reversion to the mean trader so of course trend days are going to be the hardest.

You might want to add an early warning system for trend days to your system. Not perfect but might help you with the big drawdowns.

Good journal.

Hello Plan,

Thanks.

tough loss but its the first big loss in a few months with this signal so I guess I have to take the good with the bad. The bulk of my gains from last month (and for going back even further) is from this signal.

Best

Robert
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

Probably he did nothing wrong assuming he honored his stops and is profitable over the year, there is no way to win 100% of the time.

Most people don't post their losses so it may seem like everyone here makes money, its not true.

Also, remember, he decided to increase size today and sometimes you just get unlucky since if he had been doing the same size throughout the month, his loss for the month would have been less.

Yes, the biggest factor in the loss was sizing higher along with IB running out of shares when I wanted to short more.

today was back to smaller size trades and will stay that way until I am up for the month again.

Thanks

Robert
 
I like your style, good solid head you have.

You're one of these guys one can have faith in that even if one strat ends up losing edge over time, he'll come up with another, and always stay ahead of the game.

Good work.
 
too bad, you did not reshort it. I covered it at 13.67. yesterday the market is too strong. I saw REV is shooting, but too late. so this morning I was prepared to gow with those profit takers. the whole market is strong, not good for shorting. be cautious.


Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Nice short. i looked at it also when it went above 15 today but IB was showing only 15K shares available to short which seemed like a very small amount compared to others when I check. Also the traded float is so small that I did not get to excited to jump in that one again. Seems like the same 200 shares are just going back and forth. So I took a pass

 
Question that I received that I thought was worth posting

Robert,

1. I am confused by this statement on yesterday's trading:

"REV gapped up this morning and I tried to fade it and it never retraced until it then later on gave a overbought signal."

I would think you want to wait until getting your overbought signal before going short.


2. Also, would you please clarify what you mean by "the daily MAs really don’t offer much support for the trade to begin with"?

I see the last time it was at this price was Nov 2007.




Hi

Yeah, I make my posts pretty fast these days and often make mistakes as a result. I have a two month old son along with my two other sons and I am talking 16 credits at Penn St along with trading so I am busy

I had two signals with REV. a gapup signal and an overbought signal. The actual gapup signal was a mistake due to overlooking a "detail" so I should never have been in it until about 14.45 in the first move higher which would have made it profitable. This is a result of not codifying the entries in absolute numbers with the gapups. The loss sucks but I keep in perspective that I made well over 30K on this signal for the year and this is the first loss of any size and total drawdowns with the signal is about or under 7K so I take the good with the bad.

Best to you

Robert
 
Quote from plan:

I like your style, good solid head you have.

You're one of these guys one can have faith in that even if one strat ends up losing edge over time, he'll come up with another, and always stay ahead of the game.

Good work.

Hello Plan,

Thanks for saying so and taking the time to make the post.

I guess if you beat your head against the pavement long enough it gets to be pretty solid in one way or another......

Since some of my recent life changes (another jr trader added to the family and taking some classes) my strategy development has slowed down but I just started beta testing (no real money yet) and back testing a new variant to one that did not work in the past but may have an edge with some adjustments that I made.

I should have a good idea about it by the end of the year.

Best to you

Robert
 
Made some adjustments to signaling and it resulted in a profitable trade for the day.

It wasn’t much of a day but at least it was something and it worked out well but very few shares.

SFD + 44

+ 44
- 2334 Month
 
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