Quote from GuyFawkes:
How about this for a scenario.
It seems that the Monday before every NFP this year, the market "anticipates" the number regardless of the headfakes that the other jobs and economic figures bring that precede it.
The market trends in that direction all week.
NFP is released and as if by magic the big players got it right, only the market doesn't move in the direction the NFP implies as the big players fade the market to take their profits.
You know what, when the number 1 tool Paulson said 100 times that they would use all tools available to recapitalise the banks, save the world etc etc, he was just covering himself legally. If he ever had to stand trial then he could say this in his defense when opposing counsel asked him how he could justify giving a select handful of players, the economic releases several days early.
We have seen many rallies in this bear market, and the vast majority have happened on low volume. If today's rally was in fact on high volume ( and this is hypothetical because I am reacting to earlier comments rather than checking the facts) then I would suggest the following hypothesis.
The Tarp banks and HFs that have politician friends played their regular game this NFP week. The only difference is this -they suckered in some new money, perhaps retail, that has been sat on the sidelines for a while, and when these people put in bids they were delighted to offload all the positions that they have been averaging down on courtesy of the taxpayer. More canon fodder came in and they got rid of more and more trash that masquerades as US equities. Hurray hurray hurray, the failed banks took a major step towards financial health today.
Could the market go to 12k? If it had anything to do with the economy then no way. But it's completely detached from reality as it is run by the people who should be fixing your computers.
It's just a game. Who gives a fuck. Enjoy the ride. You'll get better odds at a casino but if you want to invest in the US stock market then more fool you.