Weekly Poll: September 11 - Does It Matter?

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 14 37.8%
  • Flat

    Votes: 9 24.3%
  • Bearish

    Votes: 12 32.4%
  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • Total voters
    37
  • Poll closed .
Quote from trefoil:

NYSE market internals summary (16:16 EDT)
Volume is very heavy for this time of day. Breadth is bullish across the board. Advancing Issues: 2312 / Declining Issues: 700 -- for a ratio of 3.3 to 1. Advancing Volume: 775,313,000 / Declining Volume: 110,845,000 -- for a ratio of 7.0 to 1. New 52-Week Highs: 275 / New 52-Week Lows: 9. :theflyonthewall.com

It was a true break-out week.
The drying up of new lows today is especially significant.
Next week will be up, just not as much as this week. The week after will be up bigtime.
This is the start of the next phase of the bull that started back in March 2009. Be there or be square.

if you're long that doesn't mean market will move up
break out will count if spy goes above 114
now we're still in range
 
bullish last week, rode up some gains,
bearish since spy109.5, didn't get the type of reaction to job report as i expected even though the numbers were actually quite neutral. two positions going into tuesday, i bought some tza on thursday and more on friday... and i bought some vxx at fridays close. willing to sit with these for as long as it takes until they show a significant profit as I believe this bull run is unsustainable. september, october are not good months for stocks, we will find a reason to sell, whether it be congress, problems in europe, financial reform, war, peace, housing slowdown...something. If you believe it will be all rosy from here on out then you are delusional. spy will retest 107.10 by friday.
bearish
 
Quote from GuyFawkes:

How about this for a scenario.
It seems that the Monday before every NFP this year, the market "anticipates" the number regardless of the headfakes that the other jobs and economic figures bring that precede it.
The market trends in that direction all week.
NFP is released and as if by magic the big players got it right, only the market doesn't move in the direction the NFP implies as the big players fade the market to take their profits.
You know what, when the number 1 tool Paulson said 100 times that they would use all tools available to recapitalise the banks, save the world etc etc, he was just covering himself legally. If he ever had to stand trial then he could say this in his defense when opposing counsel asked him how he could justify giving a select handful of players, the economic releases several days early.
We have seen many rallies in this bear market, and the vast majority have happened on low volume. If today's rally was in fact on high volume ( and this is hypothetical because I am reacting to earlier comments rather than checking the facts) then I would suggest the following hypothesis.
The Tarp banks and HFs that have politician friends played their regular game this NFP week. The only difference is this -they suckered in some new money, perhaps retail, that has been sat on the sidelines for a while, and when these people put in bids they were delighted to offload all the positions that they have been averaging down on courtesy of the taxpayer. More canon fodder came in and they got rid of more and more trash that masquerades as US equities. Hurray hurray hurray, the failed banks took a major step towards financial health today.
Could the market go to 12k? If it had anything to do with the economy then no way. But it's completely detached from reality as it is run by the people who should be fixing your computers.
It's just a game. Who gives a fuck. Enjoy the ride. You'll get better odds at a casino but if you want to invest in the US stock market then more fool you.

Buddy, you are so out of touch with the fundamentals !!!

WHAT BEAR MARKET ???? The Bear Market ended March 2009.
If you are unclear please note the level of all major markets then and now.

You want facts how about the major Canadian banks. They all made a cool BILLION dollars profit this QUARTER !!! That's not funny money that is real money that adds EQUITY for their shareholders. Meanwhile, Potash is being valued as a takover target at a minimum of $39 BILLION dollars !!! Their suiter has approx. $180 BILLION value btw, so they can afford it, and they are making large profits every single quarter. ONE MIGHT ASK WHY YOU IGNORE THESE ECONOMIC REALITIES.

The one thing you have right is there is a ton of retail money on the sideline that has been severely underutilized since March 2009. Why is that ? Well, a lot of people believe people like you who told them to bail from the markets and they missed out on a 40-50% return ( on average ) since. Yes, there is MORE likelihood of a market drop now then March 2009. But no, it is not likely until at least April 2011. And this is precisely why the markets may rise another 10-20% over the winter. People are not happy making 1% in their bank accounts, and Mutual Fund managers who believe the bear market crap cannot continually underperform their peers waiting for the "inevitable" sell off they believe in.

In conclusion, I happen to agree there are some headwinds the US market has to deal with in the future. But I'm thinking we're at least a year from those headwinds, and it is pointless to predict what will occur before it starts to occur. At that point, I will happily short as needed in what will no doubt be a much healthier time to do so.
 
Quote from shortie:

" September is typically the weakest month for stock market performance, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The S&P 500 has declined 0.7 percent on average during September in the years since 1950, the Almanac says.

However, on the day after Labor Day, the Dow has risen in 12 of the last 15 times, the Almanac notes."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0515188520100905


Tuesday is free money day for the bulls!!!

10500+ close would be great.
 
Brokerage analyst "BUY" recommendations reached a level last week not seen since 1997. The amount of Investor's Intelligence newsletter writers who are Bulls fell to 29.x% last Wednesday. The Rydex/SGI Investment Advisor Confidence Index hit a 16-month low in August.

There have been $48 billion in net OUTFLOWS out of equity mutual funds since April 2009. Meanwhile, Bonds have seen net INFLOWS of $450 Billion. Gee, I wonder where all of that "bond" money will flow to once the asset allocators see their quant models turn???

Recently, we had every blogger in the world talking about the "Death Cross" and the "Cardinal Climax" and the "Hindenberg Omen" all within one month's time . . .

And still, the Bears could NOT TAKE THE MARKET BELOW 1040 SPX. But please don't let that get in the way of S2007S telling everyone how much money he's made by watching his inverse ETF's and assorted PUTS expire worthless month after month after month since the Summer of 2009. He and Robert Prechter have blown-out more TD Ameritrade accounts that you can shake a stick at!

:D
 
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