Quote from tradingjournals:
But those who shorted the market on Thursday did follow the then downtrend similar to what you explained. We know what happened to them today. Where does one draw the line?
For me Thursday morning was very unclear because the bad US news came out but Copper and Silver were basically unchanged. Most of the downdraft occurred premarket and those kind of isolated moves generally don't have lasting effects on the overall market direction.
The financials I shorted hit major support levels and held easily.
This seemed very bullish to me at the time. It suggests that there aren't many sellers out there and people are holding their positions.
So I am again back to the catalyst point. There are already strong catalysts for the market to go higher. So it will go higher until such time something changes. If the pace is slow but steady that is very bullish. If there is a sudden huge move up I would consider shorting because a normal corrective day might be triggered somewhere around a 5% drop.
Of course, the market could do anything we just have to react accordingly and toss our theories if the parameters change one morning ( Monday mornings are sometimes game breakers ).