Weekly Poll: Pullback This Week? PART 3

[S2007S]

Quote from tradingjournals:

My friend: what you showed is bullish. On the verge of a dangerous breakout.

Markets are up nearly 10% in a matter of weeks and you think they are on the verge of a "dangerous breakout"

How many times have we seen this before only to peak and watch stocks collapse again. Strip out the trillions in worthless monopoly money thrown at the economy and point me to a real market catalyst. Bubble Ben bernanke is fucking everything up with the printing of worthless dollars.

 

[shortie]

i see many stocks that are not actively participating in this rally. here is a sample of important large-cap stocks that fully participated in Mar-Apr 2010 rally but are stagnant now. these are just a few that caught my eyes as laggard there must be more. maybe somebody could put up some numbers to quantify #stocks participating/non-participating.

how can this be bullish?

 

[tradingjournals]

Shortie: Could you also list the stocks that are participating? One should not rule out a change in leadership, and therefore one has to to find the current leaders, and from there deciding on whether they could be trusted as true leaders to make a judgment on the rally. QQQQ are the verge of a breakout. One has to have a relook just to make sure. Otherwise, they may have to fall as fast as they went up.

 

[shortie]

Quote from tradingjournals:

Shortie: Could you also list the stocks that are participating? One should not rule out a change in leadership, and therefore one has to to find the current leaders, and from there deciding on whether they could be trusted as true leaders to make a judgment on the rally. QQQQ are the verge of a breakout. One has to have a relook just to make sure. Otherwise, they may have to fall as fast as they went up.

i just eyeball, i don't have a comprehensive list.


amzn, orcl, aapl are skyrocketing

 

[KMAX]

HPQ, INTC, CSCO and MSFT are yesterday. Look at e commerce stocks like TIBX and DRIV.
Look at Internet stocks like AAPL,BIDU, SOHU and NFLX.
Wireless networking: VSAT,SBAC and AMT
Comp Software Svces: RHT, ORCL, BMC, INFY they're hitting multi year highs.

Overextended short term? Yes, but some of these could be bought on pullbacks.

 

[shortie]

Quote from tradingjournals:

Shortie: Could you also list the stocks that are participating? One should not rule out a change in leadership, and therefore one has to to find the current leaders, and from there deciding on whether they could be trusted as true leaders to make a judgment on the rally. QQQQ are the verge of a breakout. One has to have a relook just to make sure. Otherwise, they may have to fall as fast as they went up.

i am not saying that the stocks i listed were leaders in Mar-Apr. my point is that probably many stocks are NOT participating (anybody has a good metrics for that?). if this is true, then the rally, even though strong, is not broad based. thus, the failure could be very sharp. don't know when.

 

[trefoil]

I'm voting flat. Figure follow-through on Monday, because that would be the last day you can buy and show you own it on Sept 30.
After that, it'll be a war between profit-takers and EOM inflows. Figure that'll make for flat to down after that. Overall, a flat week therefore.
This is probably the last time I'll have a definite view I have any confidence at all in, though. This breakout is now four weeks old, so it's time for the market to settle into a more normal, and therefore less predictable, pattern. The bias will continue to be up, of course, but people now have profits to protect, and there's going to be a tug of war between looking for more and taking some off out of a decent regard for prudence.
Besides, politics is going to intervene in a big way this October. Problem here is that confidence in a sweeping 'pubbie victory is so high that anything less overwhelming might cause a hiccup.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from shortie:

i am not saying that the stocks i listed were leaders in Mar-Apr. my point is that probably many stocks are NOT participating (anybody has a good metrics for that?). if this is true, then the rally, even though strong, is not broad based. thus, the failure could be very sharp. don't know when.

So your point is whether the participation is broad, and you got that issue raised in your mind because of your familiarity with some big name stocks. Do I get your point? If yes, you are making an excellent point. It is a very weird rally.

BTW, my post contains many edits, and I am surprised you understood it because I had hard time understanding it and I wrote it.

 

[shortie]

Quote from tradingjournals:

So your point is whether the participation is broad, and you got that issue raised in your mind because of your familiarity with some big name stocks. Do I get your point? ...

yes

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

i am not saying that the stocks i listed were leaders in Mar-Apr. my point is that probably many stocks are NOT participating (anybody has a good metrics for that?). if this is true, then the rally, even though strong, is not broad based. thus, the failure could be very sharp. don't know when.

I posted a couple of months ago we are now in a stock picker's market and some idiot slammed that idea because his trailing indicator said it wasn't. I was definately right to some degree, certain sectors are blowing away others and individual stocks there are some that are strong even on weak market days. The only question might be are the stocks in certain sectors still heavily correlated with each other.

This is not a bearish change in fact its a healthy change for the markets. The fact that weaker companies are not participating means those weak stocks are not propping up the indexes. I'd hate to see a rally based on C, BAC, etc because to me that would be a false rally. I personally think C will drop to a $1 within a few years.

I don't expect indexes to move much until April 2011 its basically range bound with possibly the latest rally pushing the overall range up to a higher band. Nothing extraordinary will happen in either direction in my opinion ( except perhaps Nasdaq up is possible on big cap tech rallying ).

What I do think is all this talk about low volume and lack of volatility will dissipate because there are excellent opportunities to make short term money in both directions. This is an easier market to trade, forget the indexes its just guess work now and find the real opportunities in special situations. For example, I like RIMM because its not participating in the rally.