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Weekly Poll: Market Is Flat Year-To-Date, Where To Next?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Quote from tradingjournals:
I am more concerned about a sharp rise tomorrow, so I hope you will be right so that I can hedge to neutral and reverse if needed, as I have some shorts. A sharp rise would make sense to confuse the bears now that the bulls are "confused"?
They did the confusion work!
Quote from tradingjournals:
At what price? (or at what ET time?)
I usually swing trade because I work full time but once in a while
I'll check in at lunch around 1:15 and take a short term trade if I see something and can follow it during the afternoon so that I can get out if it goes against me.
On a 3 minute chart, after the double bottom between 12 and 1 pm the q's headed higher and flattened out at 1:15.
That is where i went long, around $45.58, but i bought Aug calls.
I was a little late getting in but I had just logged on so I had to take what was there.
I thought the market would close strong at the time and it did rally but started to reverse at 3:30 so i closed out with a small profit.
Quote from piezoe:
The dollar continues to move lower. A YTD daily chart shows a steady decline from June 6. There is a way to go before the next meaningful support. It would be difficult for the U.S equities market to have a sustained decline in this environment of a steadily weakening dollar.
I use the ETF UUP as a dollar proxy. Do you think there's anything better? I'd appreciate knowing.
Stocks usually have a bad time in the first part of August I just wonder if the dollar will bounce here and take stocks down.
Quote from KMAX:
I use the ETF UUP as a dollar proxy. Do you think there's anything better? I'd appreciate knowing.
Stocks usually have a bad time in the first part of August I just wonder if the dollar will bounce here and take stocks down.
We are all wondering the same thing! I use the dollar futures "DX" which measures the dollar relative to a basket of currencies, with the Euro weighted at 58%. I don't think it makes much difference whether you monitor UUP or DX.
Quote from piezoe:
The dollar continues to move lower. A YTD daily chart shows a steady decline from June 6. There is a way to go before the next meaningful support. It would be difficult for the U.S equities market to have a sustained decline in this environment of a steadily weakening dollar.
The merit of the arguments you made is that they are fundamental sound. However, this does not mean they can make money, or that the market does not do the opposite or remain defiant. The last three days showed a disconnect between reality and that theory. I know that one can argue that if the dollar did not go down, it could have been worse, but those who support opposite/different arguments could also similar cases in the defense of their views. Using relative prices, there can be cases where two opposing theories could be both justified.
I believe that financial markets not only assess/price assets, but can influence/make the fundamentals on which the assets are priced. It is a two way street. So what other things make those moves? It could be random outcomes, butterfly effects, humans feelings, major sport events, half moons, etc.... The reason is not important, but the consequence of a new price can effect the economies.
Quote from tradingjournals:
The merit of the arguments you made is that they are fundamental sound. However, this does not mean they can make money, or that the market does not do the opposite or remain defiant. The last three days showed a disconnect between reality and that theory. I know that one can argue that if the dollar did not go down, it could have been worse, but those who support opposite/different arguments could also similar cases in the defense of their views. Using relative prices, there can be cases where two opposing theories could be both justified.
I believe that financial markets not only assess/price assets, but can influence/make the fundamentals on which the assets are priced. It is a two way street. So what other things make those moves? It could be random outcomes, butterfly effects, humans feelings, major sport events, half moons, etc.... The reason is not important, but the consequence of a new price can effect the economies.
You are absolutely correct, and all the more so the shorter the time scale.. As traders, we only monitor the markets that are correlated with the market we trade. If I notice a deviation from the expected I'll want to pay close attention. That deviation might be be telling me something important -- for example one market may be lagging creating a trading edge, or the correlation may be breaking down, it's up to me to try and figure out what is going on. The other thing to note is the time scale for any two markets being compared. Are they comparable?