This retreat is boring, in addition could they lift it up to shake the ET pickers who just started to short?
Weekly Poll: Market Is Flat Year-To-Date, Where To Next?
- Thread starter shortie
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i looked at it again: the article's tone is very bullish. they just threw in a couple of counterpoints to balance the extremely bullish stance.
actually yesterday i did not think about it carefully. it is important to know when the data they are talking about was collected. i think it comes from yearly july (the bottom area). so the institutions got it right and the retail got it wrong at that time - fine. but the market has moved up considerably since then.
now the important questions are: has the retail switch their stance? have the institutions switch their stance?
the little guy sentiment has just turned bullish (the street.com poll, ET poll) and i doubt that the institutions had the time to bail out because they are slow to unwind their positions.
i conclude that we are likely in a similar situation as in Apr-2010 when the institutions are over-invested and there is nobody left to buy.
one difference with Apr is that we don't have the optimism that is totally through the roof. so i expect only a small correction based on the above sentiment readings.
Shortie: I believe you are over analyzing it. In fact there is nothing to really analyze. I would just learn to follow someone who is drank. He may be irrational, but if you know the guy for sometime, you can pick some repetitions.
As for comparison to April, I do not think that as of now at least, they compare (which you alluded to). I consider this as slim pullback (like 3%) if we fully get it. I believe the margins are slim for both sides.
All what I wrote should be viewed as worthless hot air.
PS: If you want me to delete my earlier post, let me know. I did not want to watch the market and make mistakes, so I was typing some remotely related material.
As for comparison to April, I do not think that as of now at least, they compare (which you alluded to). I consider this as slim pullback (like 3%) if we fully get it. I believe the margins are slim for both sides.
All what I wrote should be viewed as worthless hot air.
PS: If you want me to delete my earlier post, let me know. I did not want to watch the market and make mistakes, so I was typing some remotely related material.
With leverage or without? With SPAN margin a small move can become really big, but dangerous as well.
Quote from tradingjournals:
With leverage or without? With SPAN margin a small move can become really big, but dangerous as well.
right now i short but adjust position with short puts as the stock moves around. in essence i end up equivalent just short calls at various strikes. maybe i should just short calls in the first place...
we probably gonna get a quiet Aug with the volatility drying out. i would like to strangle this market into Aug expr but don't have good feeling when to start building legs for my short strangles. maybe i will eventually build short strangles out of my current position.
That sounds scary. Do you go for necks or for guts?
Now for a happier analogy, I like her to straddle me, while I enjoy the time and the view of her above me. I enjoy the time she spends moving around, as well as her move getting closer to me.
As for calls and short+puts, I would say that while things can be the same, they can also be different depending how you look. A number of interesting things that can be done with options. They have two world: the seen, the unseen.
In relation to your short puts, which range of strikes do you go for? Do you sell July as well? Do you make other time gaining strategies?
If you are well capitalized, you can do a number of interesting things, such as strats where you harvest while the stock moves around.
1. If you wrote take profits at break of 110.50, I would have started to think you are reading my mind, but you are getting close. Good call! Now should we short the rally as it gets near 111?
2. I have found out why people were very bullish after monday's close, and on Tuesday's open. Do you want to know? I will give time so that folks can try to find the reason before reading it--- it is a famous reason.