Weekly Poll: Entering September - The Weakest Month For Stocks

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 26 50.0%

  • Flat

    Votes: 7 13.5%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 16 30.8%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    Votes: 3 5.8%
  • Total voters
    52
  • Poll closed .
ISM better than expected causing stocks to skyrocket, if tomorrows weekly job report and fridays big monthly job report are good the markets could be up over 5% for the week erasing all of losses for August.
 
Quote from S2007S:

ISM better than expected causing stocks to skyrocket, if tomorrows weekly job report and fridays big monthly job report are good the markets could be up over 5% for the week erasing all of losses for August.
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yeah..looks like bulls are just went crazy..trying to use whatever bull news they can find..


let's see what the news are for today..


08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +27.00. Stock futures continue to sport a strong lead over fair value after recovering from a modest pullback. The recent dip and subsequent recovery follows a disappointing ADP Employment Change report for August. The report indicated that private payrolls fell 10,000 last month, when an increase of 13,000 had been expected among a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls for the prior month were revised downward to reflect an increase of 37,000 payrolls.
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Stocks have pushed through resistance to their best levels in more than a week with the release of the August ISM Manufacturing Index, which improved to 56.3 from 55.5 in July. The August reading had been expected, on average, to slip to 52.9, according to a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com.

Construction spending data for July was also just released. Though spending fell 1.0%, which is sharper than the 0.7% decline that had been widely expected, the number has been overshadowed by the ISM reading.
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looks like going into holiday weekend nobody give a shit about bad news anymore. only good ones are counted.
btw-i always wondering-why there is no circuit breakers on upside?
:p
 
Hm, strong indeed. Profits don't look too bad either, for the efforts of a single mouse click. Staying positioned. (Sorry I'm too cheap to subscribe to realtime market data. I rather keep it for my daily bread.)

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Quote from Marcell:

Hm, strong indeed. Profits don't look too bad either, for the efforts of a single mouse click. Staying positioned. (Sorry I'm too cheap to subscribe to realtime market data. I rather keep it for my daily bread.)

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not bad! did you use any hedge for this position?
 
Sep is weak historically but we jump up huge on the first day. One way to rationalize this is that massively oversold Aug may lead to unusually positive Sep due to mean reversion. Turns out that the history indicates that a weak Aug does NOT lead to a strong Sep. One day does not make a trend as they say.

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''How September Has Performed After August Has Been Weak
September has a well-earned reputation as the worst month of the year for the stock market. But with August performing so poorly I wondered how that might affect September’s performance. The SPX finished August down 4.7%. Below I conducted a study showing how September has performed following August returns worse than X%.'

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/09/how-september-has-performed-after.html
 
Sep is weak historically but we jump up huge on the first day. One way to rationalize this is that massively oversold Aug may lead to unusually positive Sep due to mean reversion. Turns out that the history indicates that a weak Aug does NOT lead to a strong Sep. One day does not make a trend as they say.
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Good point. Today's up move could be the only move this week.
Could trend sideways tomorrow and friday as many prepare for the holiday.

Sept 6th will be interesting.
 
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