Weekly Poll: Entering September - The Weakest Month For Stocks
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Bulls caught another huge break today, it seems the market is still going to trade sideways for probably weeks to come.
Since early May the market has traded sideways and will probably do so for the next few months as well, I know the bulls and all the money managers like to scream that the markets are going to rally into the election but what else does this market have to continue any uptrend besides bubble ben bernanke throwing worthless dollars at the economy. Everyone is anticipating a November rally leading into the election but what many need to question is what happens to the economy if there is gridlock in the house and senate.
Since early May the market has traded sideways and will probably do so for the next few months as well, I know the bulls and all the money managers like to scream that the markets are going to rally into the election but what else does this market have to continue any uptrend besides bubble ben bernanke throwing worthless dollars at the economy. Everyone is anticipating a November rally leading into the election but what many need to question is what happens to the economy if there is gridlock in the house and senate.
Smart money is out of the market IMHO.
This is just a knee jerk reaction to a about 1% increase in SMI, Manufacturing index. Autos see a huge drop in sales, and its even bigger because they are comparing the sales to this time last year, Cash for Clinkers rally.
There are a lot of key indicators saying the economy is very weak still.
Not sure why so many fall for the idea that a Generation of Unleveraging will take only 3 years?
This is just a knee jerk reaction to a about 1% increase in SMI, Manufacturing index. Autos see a huge drop in sales, and its even bigger because they are comparing the sales to this time last year, Cash for Clinkers rally.
There are a lot of key indicators saying the economy is very weak still.
Not sure why so many fall for the idea that a Generation of Unleveraging will take only 3 years?
I do very classic trend following and see no point in hedging. My initial stop was at the lows of 1042 when entering the trend yesterday (now adjusted to 1057, so no risk for me anymore). I figured the break and quick reversal of the H&S pattern beginning July was fake and the 1040-45 area would be absolutely crucial for the long term trend. The risk/reward ratio was extremely compelling because if it broke support, I'd get out with minimal loss while if it bounced, gains can be huge in relation.
People here can nag about the economy however extensively they want. I'm staying long and I'm looking for 1130 at minimum with this trade. Risk management will do the rest for me.
In my Graham & Dodd type account, I went all in about two weeks ago, at a low for the Rus2k, the only index I really pay attention to.
I am extremely bearish over a very long term horizon, but in the medium term, 2 years in the Graham & Dodd universe, I'm bullish. I expect a minimum of 10% annualized, and figure 20% is both doable and realistic. Beyond that I don't care, since I'd take profits if it went beyond that.
For the week and my trading account, the bullish case is looking good, but it will all come down to Friday morning and the reaction to that. A coin flip if ever there was one.
I am extremely bearish over a very long term horizon, but in the medium term, 2 years in the Graham & Dodd universe, I'm bullish. I expect a minimum of 10% annualized, and figure 20% is both doable and realistic. Beyond that I don't care, since I'd take profits if it went beyond that.
For the week and my trading account, the bullish case is looking good, but it will all come down to Friday morning and the reaction to that. A coin flip if ever there was one.
Elections coming up. Crooked ass government of ours will do anything to keep the status quo.