Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy

caroy said:
Week 18 - updates and totals

Winning Trades: 9/20 Winning Trades ytd: 54 / 82
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Hey Caroy I think to get more value from your stats that you need to add average winner average loser to your winning trades % cause on its own it doesn't really tell much.
I agree with others to ditch the hedge as flys are fixed loss bets so scale accordingly to match the same outcome as a hedge would add.
 
caroy said:
Is there a way to see how many were temporarily profitable that turned into losers with your software?
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Yes there is. It takes two days for the days action to be available on demand so TOS will have Friday's data available on Sunday. You can go to any point in the day to see the option prices as they are changing by the second. NVAX almost reached its PIN 150 in the first 5 minutes so it is possible to see what the FLY could have been sold for at that time.

On my FB FLY I had the 317.50 -- 320.00 -- 322.50 bought at .53 it was over 1.00 for a while and started dropping and I sold at 10:59 for .68. I was pleased because even though the price got down to 317.50 I still got a profit as shorts at 320 lost more than the long at 317.50.

NFLX did surprise me on the day. At one point I was looking at it and the price was exactly 500 but the pin did not hold to the end of the day. I will go back tomorrow and see what it could have been purchased back at that exact moment in time.
 
I think this is an after the fact coincidence and will not repeat,
but if you had used Linda Rascke's 2 day momentum or 2 day RSI
over sold/over bought indicators, It would have reversed almost all
of your put flys to calls and call flys to puts and all NR3 (narrowest
day in last3) fly strike unchanged, all your flys would have worked.
Maybe try adding such an indicator in your call/put fly decision.

Also, I tried selling (buy mid strike calls) fly because I want
to trade it after it announces its vaccine EUA. IB paper
trade account would not fill any NVAX flys except at the
ridiculous bids to sell and asks to buy during Friday. How
do you get fills?

You can see my trading problem. I am a great in the past
price action trader.
 
vanv0029 said:
I think this is an after the fact coincidence and will not repeat,
but if you had used Linda Rascke's 2 day momentum or 2 day RSI
over sold/over bought indicators, It would have reversed almost all
of your put flys to calls and call flys to puts and all NR3 (narrowest
day in last3) fly strike unchanged, all your flys would have worked.
Maybe try adding such an indicator in your call/put fly decision.

Also, I tried selling (buy mid strike calls) fly because I want
to trade it after it announces its vaccine EUA. IB paper
trade account would not fill any NVAX flys except at the
ridiculous bids to sell and asks to buy during Friday. How
do you get fills?

You can see my trading problem. I am a great in the past
price action trader.
More...
Thanks for this post. I'll check out her indicator.
 
I prefer the RSI-2 but they are about the same. Extrema reading maybe over 65 and
under 35 are just one piece of inoformation. For example, late Thursday there
are usually 2 options with high open interest. One above current price and one below.
If there is an extrema I would assume over bought or oversold and choose the lower
if over bought and the higher for over sold. The pin one day fly trade idea is
good.
 
vanv0029 said:
I prefer the RSI-2 but they are about the same. Extrema reading maybe over 65 and
under 35 are just one piece of inoformation. For example, late Thursday there
are usually 2 options with high open interest. One above current price and one below.
If there is an extrema I would assume over bought or oversold and choose the lower
if over bought and the higher for over sold. The pin one day fly trade idea is
good.
More...
Good thoughts on RSI and the often occurring situation of high OI above and below. I'm going to work this and some other info commenters have shared into the selections this week.
 
Illini Trader said:
Yes there is. It takes two days for the days action to be available on demand so TOS will have Friday's data available on Sunday. You can go to any point in the day to see the option prices as they are changing by the second. NVAX almost reached its PIN 150 in the first 5 minutes so it is possible to see what the FLY could have been sold for at that time.

On my FB FLY I had the 317.50 -- 320.00 -- 322.50 bought at .53 it was over 1.00 for a while and started dropping and I sold at 10:59 for .68. I was pleased because even though the price got down to 317.50 I still got a profit as shorts at 320 lost more than the long at 317.50.

NFLX did surprise me on the day. At one point I was looking at it and the price was exactly 500 but the pin did not hold to the end of the day. I will go back tomorrow and see what it could have been purchased back at that exact moment in time.
More...
i think i need to open an account with TOS to have access to these tools. I don't believe TW has similar tools unless I just don't know how to access them. I'm somewhat tech savvy but my twin 20 year old sons refer to be as a boomer (I'm only 42) and presume I can't figure anything out. Sosnoff built TOS but I'm guessing he had to leave some of the functions or couldn't copy them in opening up TW. Guy's a genius. We had him speak on campus a couple of years ago.
 
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