Wanted to say thanks to everyone for the feedback this week. It's much appreciated I've got some vacation days to burn this week to avoid losing them and have a staycation planned with some home repair projects, resealing the foundation, installing a Tesla charger for a June delivery, and a decluttering the house project based on some books on minimalist living I've been reading. Amazing how much crap you accumulate over the years. Doing one room a day living room tonight while watching the Cubs climb on the Cardinals. I'm going to dig into some of these indicators that have been mentioned RSI and the Raschke two day indicator. Am going to take to heart comments on pairing down number of positions to be more manageable 10-15 rather than 20 +. Looking forward to the end of the week and putting on some more flies and having a successful week. @Illinitrader thanks for the feedback on TOS. I'm going to look into them this week. I'm pretty loyal to TW but saving on commissions with the volume I'm doing monthly would be appreciated. Maybe my broker would match commissions. Does TOS have access to a wide array of futures? One drawback on TW is there are no ICE products and I've always enjoyed trading seasonal spreads in coffee, cotton, cocoa, and OJ. Or at least buying calls in OJ going into hurricane season and hoping for the big one.
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Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy
- Thread starter caroy
- Start date
I have a watchlist for commodity futures and a while back it quit giving me quotes on the ones you spoke of. I was not interested enough to check it out but maybe I could still get them with an extra fee. Everything I get on TOS currently is free.
Interesting on Tesla as I have been thinking about one myself. My kids tell me the self driving option is awesome and I would be a 10 times better driver on my way to Florida with it. Did you get the self driving feature? An extra 10 Grand from what I understand.
If you get TOS I can get on the phone with you and lead you through some stuff to quickly get up the learning curve.
Interesting on Tesla as I have been thinking about one myself. My kids tell me the self driving option is awesome and I would be a 10 times better driver on my way to Florida with it. Did you get the self driving feature? An extra 10 Grand from what I understand.
If you get TOS I can get on the phone with you and lead you through some stuff to quickly get up the learning curve.
I went with the Model 3 all wheel drive and did add the full sefl-driving for the extra fee. I'm not really a car guy. I had a 2011 hyundai sonata hybrid that was T-boned and totaled out and reclaimed my sons 2011 impala but need to give it back to them for the summer so they can get to their summer jobs / internships. My thoughts are supposedly (not likely) it holds 90% of it's value after three years. Will probably be the last car I buy for fifteen years and I like not paying for gas and oil changes. I've been ubering on the side when bored the last few years and there is the hope that within a couple of years when autonomous cars are approved I can link it to my uber app and then when I'm at work and asleep it can drive around and make me money. Turning it into an asset appeals to me. I can also rent it out on Turo (the air b and b) of cars when I'm traveling for work and make $200 a day with that. Although my friends say I'm nuts for letting other people drive it but I don't see too much risk in it. I'm picking it up in Bloomington when it arrives so if you want a joyride let me know. I'm really not much of a spender being half swiss but it's odd to view this car somewhat as an investment. I have a couple of friends who have them and all they do is rave about it. Maybe I've drank the kool-aide on this one. Time will tell. My mother sends me daily links to articles of them crashing but she's been a perpetual rain on every parade type. Love her but yikes the amount of worry she puts into every ounce of life. She's let me know If I crash to immediately flee the car before I'm consumed by blue flames that fire departments can't put out. Sigh.
I went with the Model 3 all wheel drive and did add the full sefl-driving for the extra fee. I'm not really a car guy. I had a 2011 hyundai sonata hybrid that was T-boned and totaled out and reclaimed my sons 2011 impala but need to give it back to them for the summer so they can get to their summer jobs / internships. My thoughts are supposedly (not likely) it holds 90% of it's value after three years. Will probably be the last car I buy for fifteen years and I like not paying for gas and oil changes. I've been ubering on the side when bored the last few years and there is the hope that within a couple of years when autonomous cars are approved I can link it to my uber app and then when I'm at work and asleep it can drive around and make me money. Turning it into an asset appeals to me. I can also rent it out on Turo (the air b and b) of cars when I'm traveling for work and make $200 a day with that. Although my friends say I'm nuts for letting other people drive it but I don't see too much risk in it. I'm picking it up in Bloomington when it arrives so if you want a joyride let me know. I'm really not much of a spender being half swiss but it's odd to view this car somewhat as an investment. I have a couple of friends who have them and all they do is rave about it. Maybe I've drank the kool-aide on this one. Time will tell. My mother sends me daily links to articles of them crashing but she's been a perpetual rain on every parade type. Love her but yikes the amount of worry she puts into every ounce of life. She's let me know If I crash to immediately flee the car before I'm consumed by blue flames that fire departments can't put out. Sigh.
Your mom sounds like my mom who of course has been gone now for 15 years. One time in my mid twenties I went on a weekend fishing trip with some buddies to Wisconsin. She called and asked me how my trip went and I told her it was next weekend. She said oh no, you mean I worried all weekend for nothing. Yeah, the Tesla ride sounds like fun.
I went with the Model 3 all wheel drive and did add the full sefl-driving for the extra fee. I'm not really a car guy. I had a 2011 hyundai sonata hybrid that was T-boned and totaled out and reclaimed my sons 2011 impala but need to give it back to them for the summer so they can get to their summer jobs / internships. My thoughts are supposedly (not likely) it holds 90% of it's value after three years. Will probably be the last car I buy for fifteen years and I like not paying for gas and oil changes. I've been ubering on the side when bored the last few years and there is the hope that within a couple of years when autonomous cars are approved I can link it to my uber app and then when I'm at work and asleep it can drive around and make me money. Turning it into an asset appeals to me. I can also rent it out on Turo (the air b and b) of cars when I'm traveling for work and make $200 a day with that. Although my friends say I'm nuts for letting other people drive it but I don't see too much risk in it. I'm picking it up in Bloomington when it arrives so if you want a joyride let me know. I'm really not much of a spender being half swiss but it's odd to view this car somewhat as an investment. I have a couple of friends who have them and all they do is rave about it. Maybe I've drank the kool-aide on this one. Time will tell. My mother sends me daily links to articles of them crashing but she's been a perpetual rain on every parade type. Love her but yikes the amount of worry she puts into every ounce of life. She's let me know If I crash to immediately flee the car before I'm consumed by blue flames that fire departments can't put out. Sigh.
if they crash, the repairs are CRAZY expensive and take a CRAZY long time. I put my tesla back primarily for that reason (and the customer service sucks).
Week 18 - updates and totals
AAPL 8:16:8 127-130-133 call bot @ $0.88 sold $0.04 -$672
ABNB 2:4:2 135-150-165 call bot @ $2.49 sold @ $0.16 -$466
BABA 5:10:5 215-220-225 call bot @ $1.88 sold @ $0.01 -$935
BLNK 7:14:7 27.5-30-33 put bot @ $0.90 sold @ $0.20 -$490
BTX 4:8:4 15-20-25 call bot $1.81 sold @ $0.05 -$704
DASH 6:12:6 131-135-139 call bot @ $1.31 sold @$1.55 +$144
DDOG 7:14:7 87-90-93 call bot @ $1.04 sold @ $1.34 +$210
ETSY 2:4:2 170-180-190 call bot @ $3.18 sold @ $1.45 -$346
FUTU 4:8:4 127-134-141 call bot @ $1.58 sold @$0.50 -$432
GME 2:4:2 170-200-230 call bot @ $3.01 sold @ $6.60 +$718
MARA 5:10:5 20-24-28 call bot @ $1.80 sold @ $2.05 +$125
MSTR 2:4:2 430-450-470 put bot @ $4.85 sold @ $1.00 -$770
NFLX 5 495-500-505 iron fly sold @$3.52 bot @ $3.30 +$110
NVAX 7:14:7 145-150-155 call bot @ $1.09 split fill average sold @ $0.80 - $147
RBLX 7:14:7 75-80-85 call bot @ $1.09 sold @ $3.00 +$1337
SPY 6:12:6 417-413-409 bot @ $1.00 sold @ $0.44 -$336
TSLA 1:2:1 575-600-625 call bot @ $8.74 sold @ $10.02 +$228
VXX 5:10:5 39-42-45 call bot @ $0.69 sold @ $0.42 -$135
YALA 5:10:5 15-20-25 call bot @ $1.40 sold @ $3.00 +800
ZM 3:6:3 320-330-340 call bot @ $2.50 sold @ $3.17 +201
Total P/L -$1560 commissions P/L net
Winning Trades: 9/20 Winning Trades ytd: 54 / 82
Return YTD: up 3.2%
Reflections:
- First losing week since leveraging up the account size.
- No excuses some flies did not work out win rate much lower.
- I think I did a poor job of legging out of some losers.
- Kicking myself on MSTR going off the board pinned at 17.30 and what did I do but took a loss exiting early near the open. I need to remind myself the wider the strikes give them more time to pin. That would have been a huge winner had I followed my own principals. Waiting on this one alone would have made it another winning week.
- The nuance of this strategy is without a crystal ball you really don't know when to exit. On the open on the close midday certain price? Flies move all over the place on expiration day.
- Thinking of forgetting about the hedging components with vxx or spy if I have a mix of puts and calls.
- Hurts to take a losing week but part of life part of trading. Will reflect and live again to trade some flies next week.
- Wishing all a good weekend.
- View attachment 259399
I appreciate the intellectual honesty in this thread.
Is the performance what you expected? What is the weekly volatility of the pnl? If the performance is lower than you expected, what do you think is the root cause?
My goal is to keep the journal as honest as possible. Come profits come losses hopefully it will provide some valuable information for others who trade the fly. Hard to say on what I expect in terms of returns. I started trading primarily flies in a much smaller account last year and had good returns but I was using much more of the buying power on a weekly basis. I'm trading another account for a friend with the same strategy but it's smaller and his risk appetite is larger with 25% of his capital at play each week. It doesn't exactly mirror my positions but his account is up 20% in two months. With this account capital preservation is a goal so I've only been trading with around up to 5% of the original mount exposed each week to risk. If i can continue making 3-4% a month and it compounds I'd be pretty happy with the results. Ideally I want to double this account in a year to a year and half and take out the profits to start a small business that is non-trading related and then rinse and repeat each year. I work a day job that demands a good deal of travel in the non pandemic world so I need a strategy that allows me to execute it with a minimum time commitment. In Thursday afternoon and out Friday works for me without carrying any positions to monitor. I like the flies for these short term plays as they have their biggest moves either moving towards the body or they don't while the greeks converge or collapse. I want to keep refining the selection process for my flies to hopefully boost the success rate. Figuring out a set of operating principles for exits is proving elusive as some open on expiration day as winners and turn to losers and others the opposite.I appreciate the intellectual honesty in this thread.
Is the performance what you expected? What is the weekly volatility of the pnl? If the performance is lower than you expected, what do you think is the root cause?
My goal is to keep the journal as honest as possible. Come profits come losses hopefully it will provide some valuable information for others who trade the fly. Hard to say on what I expect in terms of returns. I started trading primarily flies in a much smaller account last year and had good returns but I was using much more of the buying power on a weekly basis. I'm trading another account for a friend with the same strategy but it's smaller and his risk appetite is larger with 25% of his capital at play each week. It doesn't exactly mirror my positions but his account is up 20% in two months. With this account capital preservation is a goal so I've only been trading with around up to 5% of the original mount exposed each week to risk. If i can continue making 3-4% a month and it compounds I'd be pretty happy with the results. Ideally I want to double this account in a year to a year and half and take out the profits to start a small business that is non-trading related and then rinse and repeat each year. I work a day job that demands a good deal of travel in the non pandemic world so I need a strategy that allows me to execute it with a minimum time commitment. In Thursday afternoon and out Friday works for me without carrying any positions to monitor. I like the flies for these short term plays as they have their biggest moves either moving towards the body or they don't while the greeks converge or collapse. I want to keep refining the selection process for my flies to hopefully boost the success rate. Figuring out a set of operating principles for exits is proving elusive as some open on expiration day as winners and turn to losers and others the opposite.
thanks for the reply. the ytd return is 3%. are you saying that you are only risking 5% of the account each week? that is you are up 60% on return on total risk?
that's a lot more impressive than i thought.
Week 19 - Update
ABNB 6:12:6 135-140-145 call bot @ $1.98
COIN 8:16:8 245-250-255 call bot @ $1.50
DASH 12:24:12 140-145-150 put bot @ $0.95
FUBO 20:40:20 21-23-25 put bot @ $0.57
LULU 8:16:8 320-325-330 put bot @ $1.65
MSTR 2:4:2 485-500-515 call bot @ $5.57
NFLX 8:16:8 500-505-510 call bot @ $1.57
PTON 8:16:8 106-110-114 put bot @ $1.68
QS 7:14:7 25-28-31 call bot @ $1.21
RBLX 8:16:8 95-100-105 call bot @ $1.47
RIOT 8:16:8 26-30-34 call bot @ $1.50
ROKU 3:6:3 340-350-360 call bot @ $4.16
see what tomorrow brings.
ABNB 6:12:6 135-140-145 call bot @ $1.98
COIN 8:16:8 245-250-255 call bot @ $1.50
DASH 12:24:12 140-145-150 put bot @ $0.95
FUBO 20:40:20 21-23-25 put bot @ $0.57
LULU 8:16:8 320-325-330 put bot @ $1.65
MSTR 2:4:2 485-500-515 call bot @ $5.57
NFLX 8:16:8 500-505-510 call bot @ $1.57
PTON 8:16:8 106-110-114 put bot @ $1.68
QS 7:14:7 25-28-31 call bot @ $1.21
RBLX 8:16:8 95-100-105 call bot @ $1.47
RIOT 8:16:8 26-30-34 call bot @ $1.50
ROKU 3:6:3 340-350-360 call bot @ $4.16
see what tomorrow brings.
Looks like an exciting day tomorrow but I am scratching my head a bit on DASH. It looks more like an OTM put speculation rather than your usual strategy.