We can now see clearly to the outcome of Trump's Tariffs.

[Nine_Ender]

Not really. It's the other way round.

OPEC got away with it until they didn't. Now they play games with how to hold down production to drive up costs but it just causes the Americans to produce more and more.

Your economy is dependent on selling oil to the Americans, and if you cut back you will wake up and find that we have backfilled with our own production. Plus there are plenty of new sources around the world and- once Maduro is moved out in Venezuela- we will partner with them to bring their production back on line. So don't get too cocky. As the saying goes: "when America gets the flu, Canada gets pneumonia."

In regard to trade surpluses or deficits with Canada, trade negotiations are and should be around sectors- not just a snapshot of the whole country-to-country picture. Trump will look at all of that as part of NAFTA.

Also, if Canada thinks it wants to play games with the Americans in regard to oil prices or availability, just let us know. We can kill the completion of the Keystone Pipeline in a New York minute.

I don't live in Alberta and Oil means nothing to me. I also have zero personal exposure to US trade deals. So don't get "cocky" making empty threats. Canada is on the upswing and saw much tougher days in the 1980s when inflation was huge, the federal debt was huge, and we had even less diversity in our economy. We got through that and we'll get through whatever happens with US trade. Like many Americans, you think you are big enough not to fail, yet in 2008/2009 you failed miserably. The economy today is international in nature, the most lucrative US firms are global firms that require global markets.

Go ahead, kill NAFTA and kill the pipelines. I don't personally care, you want to be stupid well it should be entertaining watching the aftermath. Look at all the Americans on here bitching about their health care premiums who posted for years how good their medical system is. You make your choices, you have to live with the consequences.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

You are wrong, we run a trade deficit with the US and without NAFTA on the Canadian part your economy wouldn't be as strong. The more you talk about getting railroaded or taken advantage of by Canada ( a ridiculous claim ), the more you encourage Canada to just decide you guys are nuts let's find other partners. Trade deals exist because BOTH parties benefit from them. This fundamental aspect seems to be lost on many Americans. So we get a clown like Trump supporting a monopoly like Boeing with 300% tariffs on a company like Bombardier that is barely solvent in a market they don't even make planes for. That's not the market driven economy that helped build both our economies.

Many of your business and regional political leaders know this already. They know losing a strong trading relationship is bad for their state, city, or company. It doesn't impact me personally at all, but the lack of common sense and awareness on the topic bothers me.

Don't get so jumpy. Trump and others are just saying that everything is going to get looked at anew. Just be ready to have something good to say when the issue of Canadian Steel a/k/a Chinese steel comes up.

And you say: "Trade deals exist because BOTH parties benefit from them. This fundamental aspect seems to be lost on many Americans." But not necessarily, a trade deal does not necessarily end out benefitting both parties simply because it exists. It needs to be reviewed as needed and a little "portfolio rebalancing" might be required. I am rooting for both Canada and Mexico. Just make sure you have something good to say and you are all set. Obama's approach was that he would just find out that the other side wanted and then do that so as to not piss anyone off. Sorry, those days are over.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Go ahead, kill NAFTA and kill the pipelines. I don't personally care,.

Oh, I got that.

You don't have the same concerns as real Canadians do.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Earlier you mentioned that Canada would ship the oil elsewhere -- this is not so.

Until Canada builds either an eastern pipeline or western pipeline to ship the oil to one coast or the other (plus add shipping facilities for oil) then your only large scale customer for oil is the U.S. -- especially in view that all the refining capacity for Canadian oil is down in the gulf states.

So either Canada builds the pipelines (after paying all the taxes that Provinces and First Nation tribes are demanding for each barrel of oil crossing their land it would be over $100 per barrel currently) -- or Canada keeps shipping to the U.S.

BTW - ask the people of Lac-Mégantic how shipping oil by rail worked out for them.

I never meant we'd ship all the Oil elsewhere. We'd shutter a big part of that industry. Jobs would be lost and it would be bad for Alberta. Our economy would take a short term hit but so would yours. We'd adapt as we always do, our economy was in much worse shape in the past. The US buys the Oil because it wants it, not as a favor to Canada. However, if a country goes out of their way to be difficult by design, as Trump is doing, there are legit ways we can retaliate and Oil is not one of them. Professional services would be a big one.

Canada is expanding it's trade with Europe and Asia the last 10+ years and our businesses in things like iT are expanding from tiny to something meaningful. At 36 million people we don't need to be on the scale of the US, we just need to be much better then we were in the past. I'm not a trade expert, but we are trading more with those areas of the world and new large deals were signed.
Even Trump seems to have noticed declining to be in the TPP may be problematic to the US, a reversal from his post-election stance.

BTW Ask the people in Lac-M how using a regional US rail carrier with spotty management worked out for them.

 

[gwb-trading]

I never said we'd ship the Oil elsewhere. We'd shutter a big part of that industry. Jobs would be lost and it would be bad for Alberta. Our economy would take a short term hit but so would yours. We'd adapt as we always do, our economy was in much worse shape in the past. The US buys the Oil because it wants it, not as a favor to Canada. However, if a country goes out of their way to be difficult by design, as Trump is doing, there are legit ways we can retaliate and Oil is not one of them. Professional services would be a big one.

Canada is expanding it's trade with Europe and Asia the last 10+ years and our businesses in things like iT are expanding from tiny to something meaningful. At 36 million people we don't need to be on the scale of the US, we just need to be much better then we were in the past.

BTW Ask the people in Lac-M how using a regional US carrier with spotty management worked out for them. There are problems at times with the US corporate world. We had a multi-day blackout in Toronto one year because of some shitty US firm on the grid.

Actually a good portion of the Alberta oil is sent to the U.S. to be refined and then sent back to Canada as gasoline, home heating oil and other products.

When you have no gas for your car and no heating oil for your home then what are you going to do?

"Professional Services would be a big one" - you do realize that Canada imports many IT and professional services people from the U.S. each week to work. Very few Canadian professional services people do work for the U.S. -- good luck with your assertion.

 

[RRY16]

I feel like 99 percent of the people commenting on TV or in the press are a bunch of economic morons not qualified to speak on this subject because they don't understand open markets and floating currencies. (its important that currencies float and are not pegged)

For the purpose of our analysis...
Lets look a a dynamic model with floating rates.
Lets also state the Federal Reserve is not printing dollars and thereby diluting its strength.

Do you all realize that by making things here that those around the world desire... would increase demand for the dollar. Thereby making foreign goods cheaper for Americans and American industry. So its possible we could keep jobs and get cheaper foreign goods?

You all might not be old enough. But European and Asian goods once seemed super cheap to americans. Instead of raw materials going to China and then sent around the world.... They were sent here and we sold them around the world. Japan competed on price and their things were once considered poorly made. Made in Japan was an insult. We had a very strong dollar and things were cheap for us.

For instance...

In 1984 or 1985 I went to England on Laker airways. I crossed the channel by a fast boat. I skied in Chaminoix for 5 or 6 days. I went to paris, ate well and I purchased the finest leather jacket I had ever owned for 740 dollars in 1985. That is 740 dollars for the everything the whole trip... plane, hotels food, lift tickets etc.

That was in part because the dollar was really strong and our economy was booming. I had also been invited to Vail by a roommate. The airfare would have been 400 dollars and lift tickets would have been much more expensive than the 11 dollars a day they were in Chaminoix. I calculated the trip to Vail would have been twice as much even though I had a place to stay whereas 5 of us stayed in Chamoix in a suite for 35 dollars a night.

All this told us is you skied in France, great post! Currency Wars are part of the equation and so is specialized efficient low wage labor.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Actually a good portion of the Alberta oil is sent to the U.S. to be refined and then sent back to Canada as gasoline, home heating oil and other products.

When you have no gas for your car and no heating oil for your home then what are you going to do?

"Professional Services would be a big one" - you do realize that Canada imports many IT and professional services people from the U.S. each week to work. Very few Canadian professional services people do work for the U.S. -- good luck with your assertion.

In a trade war scenario, Canada would end the right for US professionals to work in Canada taking away employment opportunities for qualified Canadians. That is how protectionism works. Don't worry, we'll somehow find Oil for our cars and IT guys for our companies, we aren't really short on either in reality. Nobody is saying trade wars are good, except Trump and some of his fans. However, Canada won't roll over and play ball.

 

[RRY16]

In a trade war scenario, Canada would end the right for US professionals to work in Canada taking away employment opportunities for qualified Canadians. That is how protectionism works. Don't worry, we'll somehow find Oil for our cars and IT guys for our companies, we aren't really short on either in reality.

Nobody is saying trade wars are good, except Trump and some of his fans. However, Canada won't roll over and play ball.

They import lazy overpayed US IT so-called professional, I say they can find many elsewhere.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

I never meant we'd ship all the Oil elsewhere. We'd shutter a big part of that industry. Jobs would be lost and it would be bad for Alberta. Our economy would take a short term hit but so would yours. We'd adapt as we always do, our economy was in much worse shape in the past. The US buys the Oil because it wants it, not as a favor to Canada. However, if a country goes out of their way to be difficult by design, as Trump is doing, there are legit ways we can retaliate and Oil is not one of them. Professional services would be a big one.

Canada is expanding it's trade with Europe and Asia the last 10+ years and our businesses in things like iT are expanding from tiny to something meaningful. At 36 million people we don't need to be on the scale of the US, we just need to be much better then we were in the past. I'm not a trade expert, but we are trading more with those areas of the world and new large deals were signed.
Even Trump seems to have noticed declining to be in the TPP may be problematic to the US, a reversal from his post-election stance.

BTW Ask the people in Lac-M how using a regional US rail carrier with spotty management worked out for them.

Your thinking is ten fifteen years behind the times. The U.S. has plenty of oil to the point where we exporting lots of it. We get Canadian oil for price and convenience- not need. You aren't going to shut anything down here by playing oil games. We would just cut back on exports. American oil production is at record levels, and global spot prices are down due to global surpluses, and lots and lots of natural gas is being produce in the U.S. as another factor to lessen demand on oil.

You would be better off trying to form a Maple Syrup Cartel to play your strongest hand.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...world-as-shale-boom-powers-record-oil-exports

 

[Nine_Ender]

Your thinking is ten fifteen years behind the times. The U.S. has plenty of oil to the point where we exporting lots of it. We get Canadian oil for price and convenience- not need. You aren't going to shut anything down here by playing oil games. We would just cut back on exports. American oil production is at record levels, and global spot prices are down due to global surpluses, and lots and lots of natural gas is being produce in the U.S. as another factor to lessen demand on oil.

You would be better off trying to form a Maple Syrup Cartel to play your strongest hand.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...world-as-shale-boom-powers-record-oil-exports

Again, I couldn't care less about Oil, I don't live in Alberta and my immediate family is in IT related careers. Toronto has an expanding IT sector ( 4th largest IT hub in North America ); maple syrup isn't even on the map. We also have the banks which seem to be buying up US interests since 2008; maybe not huge operations but pretty successful.