Wave Five Target = 1559.09

[Landis82]

Quote from rcanfiel:

OK, clever man

Interview with Paul Tudor Jones in 2000:

http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/Paul-Tudor-Jones-interview.html

Not a single mention of Elliott Wave, which you seem to purport is the center of his investment being, even when he is asked questions such as:

Q: How would you describe your general investment philosophy?
Q: What's your competitive advantage as a trader?
Q: Do you have any specific catalysts that you're looking for?
Q: Is there more risk in the stock market now than ever before?
Q: Can you comment on the life of your fund's returns since you began investing?
Q: What are some perceptions and priorities of yours that have changed over the years?
Q: Are you more naturally bearish or bullish?

EW is not presented as his guiding principle, but rather, many other well accepted principles, including proper money management and risk assessment.

I think the person who needs to do the homework is the person who speaks with foot in mouth.

Again, people defend these things, they "know people" who do these things, but the evidence remains elusive.

Now, about this track record and evidence which you think you have offered?

Your pretty funny.
You strike me as the little kid on the playground in grade school that always got picked on, but then became a police officer as an adult in order to "get-even" with everyone that "wronged" him and look like the pillar of society . . . trying to overcome poor self-esteem issues in the process.

I worked for PTJ as the COMEX floor-broker for Tudor Investment in 1986.

I am all too aware of the methodology that he used to trade with when it came to the use of pattern recognition, analogs, fibs, cycles, and Elliott Wave. Pabst, who I have a great deal of respect for and who was a former CBOT floor trader also chimed-in with his confirmation that PTJ used Elliott Wave as part of his trading methodology. But for some reason, you choose to disbelieve two former veteran floor traders, let alone someone that actually worked for Paul.

That's ok, because I really couldn't care less what you think, or what you believe has not been substantiated. And I certainly don't need to offer his track record because I (as well as others) are well aware of his incredible performance (well-documented and audited in the managed futures industry) and what "tools" he used that went into producing such performance.

You may feel a need to get in some sort of "pissing-match".
My time is more valuable than that. Besides, I was there.
I worked for the man.
Have a nice day.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from OldTrader:

My understanding was that PTJ used various techniques, not just EWT. But I don't know the guy, just repeating what I heard somewhere.

On another note, you evidently have an initial target of 1559, a mere 12 points above where we closed (I'm assuming you're talking cash here). So as a trader do you waiting for that 1559? Or do you get short now, thinking that 12 is pretty close?

Just wondering how you would trade this type of analysis.

OldTrader

OT, I would not be surprised to see the market consolidate tomorrow with some backing and filling and perhaps a moderately lower close. Not a big deal. Monday and Tuesday's action will be more key in my opinion.

What is a bit troubling is that NYSE breadth is really lagging badly. While the volume of NYSE up to down ratio was the best since March, the breadth was pretty lackluster at roughly 2.5:1 We have had weekly breakouts in the SPX in the past, only to reverse the very next week. As is usually the case in a mature uptrend as this, we have a "mixed" bag of internal indicators. Nothing really surprising here.

In answer to your question, I would not short "in front of" 1559.

We still need to see 5-waves up from the late June lows at SPX 1484. And thus far, we only have a (1), (2), and a 1,2, currently in 3 of (3) in this final Wave 5. We need to see the end of 3, followed by a 4 pullback, and then a 5 up to complete (3). At that point, I will be taking a very strong look at market internals.

Market internals next week will be most interesting.

There is probably another week or so left in this advance.
There will be plenty of time to play the downside when the market "shows" itself. Until then, the trend of the market is still up, and we have yet to complete 5 waves up in this sequence.

I have noticed that there seems to be a preponderance of people on ET that try and play "pick the top". Unfortunately, in anticipating such an event to occur they fail to see the market CLEARLY anymore, only looking for things that help convince them that their opinion is indeed correct. They then make matters worse by averaging into their trade, which then clouds their ability to see the market CLEARLY, even further. One then winds up going through an extraordinary amount of pain, only to then cover their shorts way too early. It's a viscious cycle, and one that I try to avoid by not trying to put the blinders on and anticipate too much. Using the WEEKLY charts tends to help me avoid this pitfall. In any event, I think that we have all been "there" and can agree that it's easier said than done.

In any event, there really is no need to anticipate the coming target and top. There will be plenty of opportunity to play the downside. In fact, I would surmise that at some point in the future one could do extremely well being short below 1532 SPX, should that level not hold, looking for a "test" of the 1484 lows of late June. If my count is correct, that low will break and we will then see an increase in selling that will take the market back down to the March 2007 lows in a larger degree Wave IV.

Thus, no need to get short ahead of 1559, or, before we see 5 waves up in this advance.

Good Luck to All.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from johnpinochet:

Landis,

I'm looking forward to your assessment after today, Thursday 12 July 2006.

When are you targeting the corrective phase? In any event, for those of us sitting on remarkable profits in our 401K's since October 2006, isn't it safe to say that the risk:reward ratio as of today favors cash, or at a minimum taking money off the table and perhaps an allocation shift?

Excellent work, by the way.

John

John, thank you for your warm words.

I would agree with you that we are getting to a point where the risk/reward ratio will favor a shift towards cash and out of the major indexes. While a hurricane this season could very well make for some isolated "plays" in the oil and gas drilling patch, I would certainly want to be out of the major market averages after we see a completed sequence of 5-waves up. A simple correction of this advance will take us back to the Wave 4 of the previous degree, which would be back down to the March 2007 lows.

If I was long like you from October of 2006, I would not want to go through a decline like that. Besides, the month of October is infamous for making major lows, with incredibly seasonal strength in the following months of Nov, Dec, and January.

A trip back down to the 1400 area would certainly put a scare into the current complacent sentiment, and probably set things up for the usual seasonal strength that starts the first week of November.

 

[dtan1e]

can someone explain why EW is not 3 waves only or 7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 21 waves, why 5, & exactly how do you fit the waves, namely, you can try to draw it a big wave or a small wave depending on the range of period you are looking at

 

[arealpissedgoy]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:



As you know the parallels to '87 are numerous. While it's quite possible we're forming a rolling top (as you describe) I think it's equally possible we're about to go parabolic.

.

I agree, there is a higher probability that the markets are at the cusp of a parabolic move than a prolonged pull back. Strong wave 5 movements will often have an extension after the orthodox top ( see the 1929 crash chart).

Every new high has been fueled by a short covering rally. Each subsequent pullback from a new high has been shallower than the prior, indicating motivated speculators buying. With the massive short interest at these prices, the parabolic move could start sooner than later.

I belive because of inflationary conditions and excessive global liquidity, 2200 ( or there abouts) on the SPX is probably where the current secular wave will terminate.

rcanfiel, thanks for sharing your excellent work on the EW.

 

[ghostzapper]

Quote from Landis82:

I worked for PTJ as the COMEX floor-broker for Tudor Investment in 1986.

My time is more valuable than that. Besides, I was there.
I worked for the man.

waggie it's nice to see you back on et, re-inventing yourself w yet another new alias landis82.

My question is: if your time is soo valuable, why did you call Baron on a sat night to complain about ET ?

Now you go around telling everyone w over 10 posts a day that they really work for Baron, and as such, are encouraged to post crap. maybe true.

So can i surmise that your sat night chit chat w Baron didn't turn out the way you wanted ?

 

[BoyBrutus]

Quote from Landis82:



We still need to see 5-waves up from the late June lows at SPX 1484. And thus far, we only have a (1), (2), and a 1,2, currently in 3 of (3) in this final Wave 5. We need to see the end of 3, followed by a 4 pullback, and then a 5 up to complete (3). At that point, I will be taking a very strong look at market internals.

Landis82, thanks for the great thread.

If you have time can you post a chart of the above.

Thanks

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Landis82:

Your pretty funny.
You strike me as ...

“You obviously have little insight. PTJ used Elliott Wave in a most successful manner. I should know, I worked for him early on in my career in NYC.”

OK, lets recap:

YOU: “Paul Tudor Jones' track-record is readily available. I suggest that you take it upon yourself to do your OWN homework and research his independently audited results. If you don't believe in his use of Elliott Wave”

ME: [Did your suggested research, no evidence of EW anywhere in Tudor’s own philosophy/testimony. Posted results of thorough interview with PTJ]

YOU: [ignoring this lack of support for your claim, but clings to “I am all too aware of the methodology that he used to trade with…”]

ME: [Well, you certainly don’t evidence that since his interview doesn’t even bother to bring EW up]

YOU: 1) “And I certainly don't need to offer his track record because I (as well as others) are well aware of his incredible performance” 2) “Pabst, who I have a great deal of respect for and who was a former CBOT floor trader also chimed-in with his confirmation that PTJ used Elliott Wave as part of his trading methodology”

ME: Funny, earlier you bubble over with his "readily-available track record". Your Pabst is also the one who earlier said that PJT’s track record is readily available. If so, then where is it? PJT himself didn’t think EW worth a single mention in a several page interview of his methods. Anecdotal evidence only is offered.

REASONABLE CONCLUSION: EW is still unfounded. Believers like you cannot get beyond anecdotes and testimonies for evidence, but point to things that have little to do with your remarks. So it remains, that EW believers can only point elsewhere to vague people who are successful or someone they know, since they have no convincing evidence of their own.

As you said, have a nice day. Based on what a few others are saying here about you, I have serious doubt about your high standing as working with PJT. You are incapable of even following up or defending your own empty words.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from rcanfiel:

As you said, have a nice day. Based on what a few others are saying here about you, I have serious doubt about your high standing as working with PJT. You are incapable of even following up or defending your own empty words.

Wow.
You really are VERY obsessed with proving how "right" you are, eh? You have proven yourself to have some serious issues in this thread. I think that everyone can clearly see that.
Did someone kick sand in your face?

Why you actually think that I need to defend myself (and the track record of legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones, let alone his use of EWT) because of someone like yourself, is actually quite funny. Next thing I know, you'll be asking me for a scanned photo of my business card from 1986 when I worked for PTJ.

I think most people here see the humor in your absurdly insecure ego.
For some reason, you clearly don't.

 

[2006]

Alright rcan --- how about you step up and let us know what "works". Since you seem to be Mr. Know it all.

Do you even trade?