Wave Five Target = 1559.09

[Landis82]

Quote from rcanfiel:

Not a single mention of Elliott Wave, which you seem to purport is the center of his investment being, even when he is asked questions such as . . .

ME: PJT himself didn’t think EW worth a single mention in a several page interview of his methods. Anecdotal evidence only is offered.

ME: Did your suggested research, no evidence of EW anywhere in Tudor’s own philosophy/testimony. Posted results of thorough interview with PTJ.

I've really tried to be a gentleman about this, but you are without a doubt, the most IGNORANT poster to ever post on ET. Try reading Page #117 of Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards" in which Paul is interviewed by Schwager. I believe that Paul talks about his use of Elliott Wave on Page #130 in which he attributes "a lot of his success to the Elliott Wave approach" when responding to Schwager's question about,
"What do you mean by opportunist?"

Most traders have read Schwager's most popular interviews of successful traders.
In fact, his book has been out since 1989. But for some reason, this book and PTJ interview seems to have escaped you. As a result, most here would undoubtedly seriously question your background, let alone your intelligence.

Attacking the track record of PTJ, let alone his well-documented use of Elliott Wave is analogous to running around and shouting to anyone that will listen, that the Earth is "flat".

Congratulations on providing us with a good laugh.
Have a nice weekend, Sir!

 

[myminitrading]

Quote from Landis82:

OT, I would not be surprised to see the market consolidate tomorrow with some backing and filling and perhaps a moderately lower close. Not a big deal. Monday and Tuesday's action will be more key in my opinion.

What is a bit troubling is that NYSE breadth is really lagging badly. While the volume of NYSE up to down ratio was the best since March, the breadth was pretty lackluster at roughly 2.5:1 We have had weekly breakouts in the SPX in the past, only to reverse the very next week. As is usually the case in a mature uptrend as this, we have a "mixed" bag of internal indicators. Nothing really surprising here.

In answer to your question, I would not short "in front of" 1559.

We still need to see 5-waves up from the late June lows at SPX 1484. And thus far, we only have a (1), (2), and a 1,2, currently in 3 of (3) in this final Wave 5. We need to see the end of 3, followed by a 4 pullback, and then a 5 up to complete (3). At that point, I will be taking a very strong look at market internals.

Market internals next week will be most interesting.

There is probably another week or so left in this advance.
There will be plenty of time to play the downside when the market "shows" itself. Until then, the trend of the market is still up, and we have yet to complete 5 waves up in this sequence.

I have noticed that there seems to be a preponderance of people on ET that try and play "pick the top". Unfortunately, in anticipating such an event to occur they fail to see the market CLEARLY anymore, only looking for things that help convince them that their opinion is indeed correct. They then make matters worse by averaging into their trade, which then clouds their ability to see the market CLEARLY, even further. One then winds up going through an extraordinary amount of pain, only to then cover their shorts way too early. It's a viscious cycle, and one that I try to avoid by not trying to put the blinders on and anticipate too much. Using the WEEKLY charts tends to help me avoid this pitfall. In any event, I think that we have all been "there" and can agree that it's easier said than done.

In any event, there really is no need to anticipate the coming target and top. There will be plenty of opportunity to play the downside. In fact, I would surmise that at some point in the future one could do extremely well being short below 1532 SPX, should that level not hold, looking for a "test" of the 1484 lows of late June. If my count is correct, that low will break and we will then see an increase in selling that will take the market back down to the March 2007 lows in a larger degree Wave IV.

Thus, no need to get short ahead of 1559, or, before we see 5 waves up in this advance.

Good Luck to All.

I was also concerned and quite displaced by the divergence shown in the attached chart.

It appears to have resolved itself, or either my data is inaccurate.

 

[ghostzapper]

Quote from Landis82:

I've really tried to be a gentleman about this, but you are without a doubt, the most IGNORANT poster to ever post on ET.

If waggie's directing his best bs (ie when I was on the floor, when i worked here...etc etc) towards rcanfiel, there's only one thing he can do...rcanfiel, pat yourself on the back for a job well done !

 

[amtrak]

Thanks for a good thread with good analysis, Landis82.

EWT's definitely on to something.

Objective Elliot Wave blog also has an interesting viewpoint.

With long-term direction changing in one to several months
there should be some easy profit potential
(but my first attempt was early piddling around with DXD and SDS
-- dumped 'em this morning).

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Landis82:

<i>I've really tried to be a gentleman about this, but you are without a doubt, the most IGNORANT poster to ever post on ET. </i>

Funny, I was about to award that honor to you.

<i>Attacking the track record of PTJ, let alone his well-documented use of Elliott Wave is analogous to running around and shouting to anyone that will listen, that the Earth is "flat".</i>

No one questioned his track record, only the person who talks without evidence, balks when someone actually follows their suggestion, drops names about "working with the big guy", and tries to weave and bob rather than address the realities.

I see nothing but an empty shirt. EW remains garbage, and your thorough analysis is little more than pig manure.

Your "only one possible outcome" the other day was enough to paint you as sufficiently clueless to be the successful trader you claim.

When it comes to ignorance, I am just a humble duffer standing in the shadow of yourself, His Holiness, the Eminence of Cluelessness and the High Priest from the Land of Foolhardiness...

 

[Landis82]

Quote from rcanfiel:

No one questioned his track record . . . [/B]

You questioned whether or not Paul Tudor Jones used Elliott Wave in his approach to trading the markets. I offered Page #130 of his interview by Jack Schwager in his book, "Market Wizards".

Asked and answered.

And once again it made you look incredibly ignorant.
And once again you find yourself sitting in the corner and crying out for more attention, like a 4-year old who had his candy bar taken away from him.

Congratulations.
You are now on ignore.
Thanks for playing.

 

[Landis82]

Friday's sell-off into the close of trading was the "a" wave down of Wave 4. The subsequent rally this morning to 1555.90 SPX was a "b" wave and we are now in "c" of Wave 4.

After this pullback, expect another push back up in the Sept. S&P Futures contract beyond the 1563.50 area towards 1575 to complete the entire rally sequence.

In the meantime, the pullback should not drop any further than 1553.00 on the ES.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Landis82:

You questioned whether or not Paul Tudor Jones used Elliott Wave in his approach to trading the markets. I offered Page #130 of his interview by Jack Schwager in his book, "Market Wizards".

Asked and answered.

And once again it made you look incredibly ignorant.
And once again you find yourself sitting in the corner and crying out for more attention, like a 4-year old who had his candy bar taken away from him.

Congratulations.
You are now on ignore.
Thanks for playing.

"Asked and answered." trying to sound like an attorney as well as a trader now?

the best you can do is generate a stream of unrelated insults, since obviously, Elliott Wave remains without value. As well stated by another technical analyst:

"The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong."

 

[j1900q]

On a daily chart I count 3 pushes up since March 5th.
On a 60 min chart there have been 3 pushes up since june 27th.
On a 15 min chart there have been 3 puches up since July 11.
Draw your own conclusion.
Keith

 

[Landis82]

Quote from j1900q:

On a daily chart I count 3 pushes up since March 5th.
On a 60 min chart there have been 3 pushes up since june 27th.
On a 15 min chart there have been 3 puches up since July 11.
Draw your own conclusion.
Keith

Yep.

On the 60-minute chart, the DJI has traced out a nice A-B-C-D-E Wave (IV) correction with the (E) ending the correction at 13,435.45 on July 11th.

Since that low, we have seen a (i), (ii), and (iii).
What is less clear is whether or not we have started a (iv) yet in the DJIA.

The SPX on the otherhand, cleaerly shows an a-b-c (iv) in progress.