Wash Post - 82 % chance of Senate for Repubs

[jem]

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...erms-will-likely-send-democrats-into-a-panic/

Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate in November, according to the Washington Post’s new Election Lab model.

The model, put together by political scientist John Sides, takes into account problematic issues hurting Democrats as well as the fact that the president’s party tends to do poorly in midterm elections.

 

[Clubber Lang]

That model is racist.

 

[wjk]

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...erms-will-likely-send-democrats-into-a-panic/

Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate in November, according to the Washington Post’s new Election Lab model.

And yet, for some reason I can't get excited about it.

 

[DHOHHI]

That model is racist.

I guess whoever did the poll was the person who fired Odumbo's brother in law as b-ball coach at Oregon State. It's a conspiracy .... EVERYONE who is not a Democrat is racist.

 

[Trader666]

The Insiders: Left-footed Democrats try to dance to the right
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...t-footed-democrats-try-to-dance-to-the-right/

 

[Tsing Tao]

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...erms-will-likely-send-democrats-into-a-panic/

Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate in November, according to the Washington Post’s new Election Lab model.

The model, put together by political scientist John Sides, takes into account problematic issues hurting Democrats as well as the fact that the president’s party tends to do poorly in midterm elections.

I just want to make sure - is Wapo using the balanced Jem Algo?

 

[jem]

nope... they are using far more alchemy. Their model includes the Presidents approval rating. I believe, from reading the stories, the author of the election lab went back and looked at a few previous elections and found the President's approval rating to be important (as one would expect). However, he then seemed to pick an inflection number.. approval above and approval below. To me it looked very contrived. In trading you would call "curve fit". Additionally, to me, it is far too limited a sample size to draw any real conclusions. However if you were a discretionary trader you would probably make similar calls. You would expect lousy poll numbers for the pres and an energized republican base to spell trouble for the Ds.

However, the polls themselves do not put the Republicans chances that high at the moment. There are a 3 to 4 "swing seats" and we have very limited polling data. The jem algo can not bring us clarity outside the margin for error... at the moment. It needs more data from recent polls which reveal their samples composition.

I just want to make sure - is Wapo using the balanced Jem Algo?

 

[futurecurrents]

This way they can fuck-over the US a little more. Great. It amazes me how many stupid people there are in the US. It's embarrassing. Yeah, let's put another dumb Bush in office.

 

[Lucrum]

...It amazes me how many stupid people there are in the US. It's embarrassing....

Obama certainly got elected - twice.

 

[Tsing Tao]

This way they can fuck-over the US a little more. Great. It amazes me how many stupid people there are in the US. It's embarrassing. Yeah, let's put another dumb Bush in office.

You are quite the rabid moonbat.