Warming is over as El Nino fades - Models failing.

J

jem

even using the nutter nuttiest chart... with the big fake temperature adjustments... (the one fc relies on) ... temperature is declining from the highs...

01-giss.png


So of course the models modeling increasing temps based on their assumption co2 causes warming are failing to new highs.



11-model-data-difference-hadcrut4.png




https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/11-model-data-difference-hadcrut4.png
 
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/07...lower-troposphere-temperature-anomaly-update/

.....

As noted above, the models in this post are represented by the CMIP5 multi-model mean (historic through 2005 and RCP8.5 forcings afterwards), which are the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report.

Considering the uptick in surface temperatures in 2014, 2015 and now 2016 (see the postshere and here), government agencies that supply global surface temperature products have been touting “record high” combined global land and ocean surface temperatures. Alarmists happily ignore the fact that it is easy to have record high global temperatures in the midst of a hiatus or slowdown in global warming, and they have been using the recent record highs to draw attention away from the growing difference between observed global surface temperatures and the IPCC climate model-based projections of them.

There are a number of ways to present how poorly climate models simulate global surface temperatures. Normally they are compared in a time-series graph. See the example in Figure 10. In that example, the UKMO HadCRUT4 land+ocean surface temperature reconstruction is compared to the multi-model mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report. The reconstruction and model outputs have been smoothed with 61-month running-mean filters to reduce the monthly variations. The climate science community commonly uses a 5-year running-mean filter (basically the same as a 61-month filter) to minimize the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events, as shown on the GISS webpage here. Using a 5-year running mean filter has been commonplace in global temperature-related studies for decades. (See Figure 13 here from Hansen and Lebedeff 1987 Global Trends of Measured Surface Air Temperature.) Also, the anomalies for the reconstruction and model outputs have been referenced to the period of 1880 to 2013 so not to bias the r
 
It's yearly data, all you had to do was click on the NASA link.
You really don't understand what you're posting. I doubt the models had predicted that recent spike. Eyeballing regression lines through the data would still point upward.
Answer this: At the end of the year, will the mean temperature anomaly of 2016 be higher or lower than that of 2015 ? (No one in their right mind would say lower.)
 
The people who push these models are liars. We have busted them lying on countless other 'scientific' endeavors. Why would these liars start telling the truth now?

Global warming is a means to a political end. The left wing anti-American folks use global warming to push anti-capitalist policies. Just look at the idiots who support the pseudoscience of global warming.
 
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