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10-17-07 01:06 PM

Selling all China/Hong Kong/Taiwan Large Cap and Nasdaq traded ADR's......CHU, CHA, CN, CHL, LFC, PTR, SNP, HNP, ACH, AUO, EDU, STP, SNP, YGE, GSH, YZC, CEO, QXM, JST, JRJC, GIGM, BIDU, HMIN, MPEL, SNDA, SINA, SOHU, UTSI, CTRP, COGO, NTES, XING, CSUN, FMCN........

CEF's and ETF's------TDF, FXI, PGJ, TWN

India gets the boot as well.........HBD, IBN, IFN, TTM, SYNT...

All great things come to an end......I don't feel that today is the day, but for me it's time to call my top and wait for better prices to re-enter.......I always ask myself when I sell a stock that I really like "Would I buy more at this price?".....That one question answers much of my doubt.........

$COSTAverageMAN....


Lets look at the call 4 weeks later!!!!!!!!
((((All stock prices will be 10/17 closing price and 11/12 closing prices)))))

Listed from worst to first....I left India stocks out of list.....

ACH(-40.54%)
CSUN(-40.23%)
UTSI(-37.29%)
JRJC(-35.56%)
CHA(-35.47%)
HNP(-32.30%)
YZC(-31.69%)
SNP(-30.06%)
PTR(-30.01%)
QXM(-28.91%)
LFC(-25.87%)
CN(-24.81%)
JST(-24.73%)
MPEL(-24.40%)
XING(-23.68%)
GIGM(-23.68%)
GSH(-23.08%)
FXI(-22.41%)
PGJ(-21.83%)
CHU(-19.20%)
CHL(-18.28%)
COGO(-17.65%)
CEO(-17.22%)
SINA(-16.19%)
YGE(-15.11%)
TWN(-14.38%)
HMIN(-13.42%)
TDF(-13.12%)
SNDA(-12.20%)
FMCN(-10.40%)
EDU(-8.98%)
NTES(-5.25%)
AUO(-4.70%)
BIDU(-4.64%)
We have 3 winners
CTRP(+5.50%)
SOHU(+10.32%)
STP(+26.96%)

Well that felt great just typing it all in....
Thinking about all those gains wiped away because of greed.....

So what did we learn from this example?

Answer: When the story sounds too good to be true and everyone is all aboard already....You need to get off the "Money Train" and re-evaluate.....

Monday was a brutal example of just that.....So lets name the industries that experienced this massive selling today..

1st on my list is Infrastructure Plays:
Jeffery Gendell reported on 10/26 that he was selling SGR and that was my signal to get off the train in this industry...
http://myway.brand.edgar-online.com/default.aspx
search for Gendell in comapny name!!!!

All sold on 10/26.....SGR, URS, KBR, FLR, JEC, ACM

And yes I own a small position in TWRT.ob (If you went to the J. Gendell SEC page, but I bought when he first filed those warrant purchases back in march)...It's my best performer of the year!!!!!

2nd on the list is SOLAR STOCKS: the day to get off the train was 11/08 when FSLR reported that it's stock was trading at 125 P/E and north of 60 P/S... you know one of those I'm an "8 billion dollar company last month, but I'm still cheap at 16 billion today"----Total sell signal in my book for the whole industry that I was still in.....
which was FSLR, SPWR, JASO, ESLR, TSL, CSIQ......on a side note OCTL was a heater in that industry that went undiscovered in the summer months...now look at it!!!!!!

3rd on the list goes to the best industry in the market over the last 18 months...ANYONE....ANYONE....Fertilizer

Got caught holding some of these today, but all my 4% stop loses fired before most of the pain came...

TNH, CF, MOS, POT, TRA, AGU

SQM was sold around 196...a few weeks back

AG, CNH, DE needed to be sold last tuesday when AG was up 9% in this market....

I could go on and on about steel, gold , mining, coal, oil, hot tech.....The momentum index I created to gauge market over bought and over sold scenarios in momentum names got crushed today...

If you think the one to five day whipping to the momentum names was it just look at those invincible dry bulk names you loved earlier this year...EXM, DRYS, TBSI, DSX, GNK to name a few....ouch

On a side note it will be a traders market today with all that weakness yesterday!!!!!!!

Good Luck and best wishes to all

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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09-18-07 03:46 PM

I would be selling right now at the 1520 level on the S&P 500.....Technical resistance to the upside.....If you forgot to sell in July today is your day in my own opinion.....

I can't see how a 50/50 point move says the economy is healthy.....

SDS entry is at 51.42 as a hedge to the portfolio.....
I am selling everything again....

Some of the Cash that day went into the TLT and $COST sat on his hands as we climbed higher....I hope some of the investors out there heard the call....My market timing has been pretty good this past year or two.....I'm patting myself on the back right now as I see the Futures looking the way they look....

Just thought I would come back and get this thread going again..I haven't been posting in this thread much cause I haven't had anything good to say about getting long these markets and I would hate to ruin all these amazing calls I made with a bunch of poorly timed bottom calls that I have been playing with..Since the investors out there are looking for a place to chit chat .....Lets get it started again!!!!!!!!!!!

Not much to say about how we open except...I hope you got some cash on the sidelines....

To think the Fed will step up early is a joke and the thought that they are only going 50 on the Fed and 50 on the discount again makes me really rethink all that North American Union(AMERO) conspiracies stuff....

I mean the only way people would agree to some new currency is after about a year or two of just thrashing of their 401Ks, Down sizing left and right and another Elite in the White House....Basically the markets would have to go to a full on depression... And the North American Union would be sold to America as a bailout plan (Like the NEW DEAL)......I may not be around to see the day, but if the elites really have this plan in play THEY ARE STARTING IT RIGHT NOW....Never think the ELITES
can't accomplish the impossible....

BTW...If I was voting I would vote for Wayne Allyn Root...

MLK WAS A GREAT MAN AND I HEARD HIM SPEAK BACK IN THE DAY....God bless a true American liberator

Any thoughts....

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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Looking forward to it Cost Average Man!

How about Rogers. (New york - RCI) (Toronto RCI-b.to)

Out performed nicely today.

Has been beaten down from 54 to 37 over the last few months.

Company has quite a bit going for it.

Cash-Cow like...
 
J. Gendell info anyone....

You know I'm always watching this man and his fund...


BTW the PCR (Perini Corp) purchase was another no brainer....Like Deutsche Bank was going to get stuck with a half finished building in Las Vegas...And if you were watching the stock on the open yesterday It opened down even after the news broke that it was going to get paid for.....

Perfect swing trade that I'm still very long....It was nice to see Gendell playing it with me.....

$COSTAverageMAN
 

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Well I'll give you one more I'm currently playing for a swing trade....($Cost defines swing as 3 days to many months long)

TRN (Trinity Industries)

This was my catalyst to get long....

AP
Citadel Takes Trinity Industries Stake
Friday January 18, 10:04 am ET
Citadel Investment Group Reports 7 Percent Passive Stake in Trinity Industries

NEW YORK (AP) -- Hedge fund Citadel Investment Group LLC on Friday reported owning a 7 percent passive stake in Trinity Industries Inc., which owns construction, transportation and energy service groups.

Citadel beneficially owns 5.6 million shares, or a 7 percent stake based on 81.5 million shares outstanding as of Oct. 26, it said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Citadel disclosed its stake in the Dallas-based company in a Schedule 13G filing, which indicates the investment is passive, and the shares were not acquired to change or influence control of the company.

$COSTAVerageMAN
 

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Quote from $CostAverageMAN:

Well I'll give you one more I'm currently playing for a swing trade....($Cost defines swing as 3 days to many months long)

TRN (Trinity Industries)

This was my catalyst to get long....

AP
Citadel Takes Trinity Industries Stake
Friday January 18, 10:04 am ET
Citadel Investment Group Reports 7 Percent Passive Stake in Trinity Industries

NEW YORK (AP) -- Hedge fund Citadel Investment Group LLC on Friday reported owning a 7 percent passive stake in Trinity Industries Inc., which owns construction, transportation and energy service groups.

Citadel beneficially owns 5.6 million shares, or a 7 percent stake based on 81.5 million shares outstanding as of Oct. 26, it said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Citadel disclosed its stake in the Dallas-based company in a Schedule 13G filing, which indicates the investment is passive, and the shares were not acquired to change or influence control of the company.

$COSTAVerageMAN
More...

man that thing has been hammered. what do you think costman is the worst over for the market after todays reversal?
 
I think this ABK, MBI bailout proposal (If real) could be the right kind of catalyst to get us moving back in the right direction....

Now on another subject....I was a big seller of the TLT today to free up some cash and that should clear in a couple of days, my short positions I was getting out of last week have finally cleared so I did put some of that capital to work today and a little yesterday, but I truly believe you have to go with sound companies in this market....

I'm still cautious just like everyone else, but moves are getting made in last years worst sectors...ie housing, banking, transports, Retail, Restaurants, Small Caps.....It just makes you sick when you think that these are our leaders.....Draw your own conclusions, But it's been fun/profitable to trade.....I want to thank those members of ET that have shown this old man the way to intra-day trade....Reading some of my old post from 2006 I was a pretty stubborn investor, But ever since those double 2X long/short ETF's came out I have a new passion with trading/investing/hedging my capital.....

On a side note this past year I have learned to obey, yet hate Reg. T when moving around some serious size in those products....Making me always think 3 days out about what my game plan will be...and in this market that has been very difficult

I have been getting long recently, but will hedge myself on any sustained weakness with either TWM or options...

$COSTAverageMAN
 
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