Wallace Euro Trades

notwithstanding this Friday's an NFP day and the BoE and ECB announce Thursday
I think the trend will continue up, and probably for the whole of May

Monday May 2 session: Sunday: 3:15pm

the DX has broken thru D mls and approaching outer channel lines which the price
will usually bounce off, with or without a penetration of the outer line/s; estimating
the bounce area around 72.40

if the euro price is to rise, it's likely the downside will continue its correction
if the price only goes as low as the Thursday low, that'll be around the 1.4755 area
possibly completing 4H bar 8:00 , while a weaker price could have it going to the
1.4710 area. the major upside target is the 1.5140 area

an alternate is the Thur-Fri formation was a reversal and the price declines thru the
week in a correction before the rally renews
 
aaaaaahaaaaaa
what do we have here ?
mmmmmm, looks suspiciously like a reversal formation, again - W formation

are we Now going to see a decline of the price ? say until the NFP on Friday ?
Weekly's printing RED

Tuesday May 3 session: 1:35pm

4H bar 4:00 nicked the lower sdc line and bar 20:00 is approaching it again, will it and
bar 0:00 drop thru and below it ?

if so first 2 major levels below 1.4786 are 1.4717 and 1.4667 , then 1.4519 and then
1.4416 and 1.4372
spot's - currently + 14 pips - are 1.4785 , 1.4752 , 1.4666 , and 1.4448 and 1.4372
 
interesting that the spot D is printing one more red bar that the 6E, actually two more
now the Tuesday session has closed
and I think we're going to see downside again and possibly, possibly this session may
see the 1.4717/s1.47518 levels broken thru


Wednesday May 4 session: 3:10pm

basically yesterday's levels
Close line gives the appearance of the first series of correction waves complete and
the start of the next wave down, which should be definitive
 
another ziggy-wiggy-Whoops-waggy-zaggy - complete ?

will this session see a break down ?

Thursday May 5 session: 3:10pm

with the price now sitting on the lower sdc line, we must first see if the 1.4786 level
is taken out
next level around 1.4750 which is a previous LC area, then 1.4718 and so on

neither the ECB nor apparently the BoE are expected to make any rate changes, so
everything now is leaning toward Friday's NFP
 
Finally. some downside

the z-w-W-w-z was similar to the one that occurred during Apr 8-14 including the sell-
off that followed-on after its completion
I've too many charts to update to go into a detailed analysis so I'll leave that for the
weekend and post it on Sunday. the main matter is whether the price is correcting
and by how much, or, is THE top is in and it's all Down from here

NFP 8:30am EST - larger increase expected in part due to auto parts related layoffs
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . . Consensus . . Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 216,000 . . 185,000 . . 140,000 to 325,000
Unemployment Rate - Level . . . . 8.8% . . . . . 8.8% . . . . 8.6 % to 8.9 %


Friday May 6 session: 2:50pm

the spot v futures spread is still around 12 pips - prior to the 10 pip Close dump
the price breached the 1.4519 s-6E level and the 50 cf level of Apr 18 LL-May 4 HH
and rallied to close at 1.4518
major lower levels are 1.4439 for the current cf and 1.4416 for the rf, 1.4456 , 1.4448
for spot, quite a difference between the 6E and spot

the $ did then bounce off the outer line and has crossed back over the ml on some
channels as expected
so how much lower/higher will the euro/$ go ?
6E 1.4416 doesn't seem out of the question, since the euro price has also crossed
back across mls and one outer line intersects the 1.4416 level - Weekly
since there's likely to be a 'negative' NFP number later this session, it may be not be
until next week that The low and possible base forms - mostly a 'correction session'
 
April's Monthly spot Close was 1.48043 , one 76 is 1.48232 , and the 6E 1.4790 and
1.4792 for the 76

under consideration is: the euro has topped - permanently, or, begun a correction

aside from the fact that the price has intersected various lines, fibo levels and time
targets, what's causing the price to decline ? 'sell in May and go away' ?

while the Buy's off, it'll take a long time to confirm we're into a Major downturn
the current move as correction can last till July, down to around 1.3655 and remain
a correction with a rally to new highs to follow
this also means the $ could, rally back up to the 78.0+ area


Monday May 9 session: Sunday: 2:45pm

the price closed on the ml of a large longterm sec and hit a fibo that in turn is also
suggesting the much lower price
next lower levels are 1.4175 and 1.4140 with upper levels of 1.4352 , 1.4440 , 1.4461
but the price may not get above the 1.4532 only hit that area reverse and continue
down toward the 1.41 levels, from which there's a possibililty of a base and reversal
 
the price held up better than I thought it might
possibilities are a base has formed or it's completing the correction before starting
the next wave down


Tuesday May 10 session: 1:45pm

the price has retraced 2 pips short of a 61 which is a good level to reverse from, but
could still go up to the 1.44+ area and still remain an rc - retracement correction
time wise, the price could start to drop right away, and could continue to the second
4H bar if it travels higher toward yesterday's H
breaking the previous H of 1.4430 means a base did form and the price is at least
retracing to some or all of last Thur's H
 
the Mon-Tue 4H LC were 1.4276 and 1.4275 forming what appears to be a base, as
well as stopping at the major 61
I'm not sure what to make of the differences between the 6E and spot, the 6E has
now had 2 up days whereas spot only yesterday's session, which adds to my thinking
today will be a down session and new lows, but contradicts the idea a base has formed
and the price is on its way up in a rc


Wednesday May 11 session: 2:50pm

the price could drop anytime between the open and the European open
a high could be the 1.4440 level
so the best I can say is if Long watch for a possible price reversal
 
Bernanke's doing some testifying at 10am ? nothing market shattering expected


Thursday May 12 session: 2:55pm

I'm expecting the downside to continue now until Monday

there's a previous L at 1.4138 which nearly coincides with a fibo level, plus there's a
lump of prices from Mar 18 thru 30 at the base of which is Now, a fibo level around
1.4022 , while a 61 is around 1.3997 , which may be a stopper
 
Trichet addresses 'Reform of the Financial System' conference in Madrid, which may
not in itself be significant, only if he otherwise talks to reporters - 'loose lips' . . .


Friday May 13 session: 3:30pm

in yesterday's update I had written then deleted some info that I thought 'they don't
want to read that', and now you're going to have to

on Wednesday while updating charts, I made a small adjustment to one of my time
targeting methods. this Immediately changed my interpretation of what the price was
going to do, or might be going to do
having no prior experience with the adjusted time targeting method, I was and am as
yet uncertain if the adjustment is Reliable, and has any significance that is useful to
profitable trading, as well as having to review this change thru all tfs-charts - weekend
but, since the price 'downside to continue' stopped, I have to think that the price is in
a corrective process that will last into Monday, possibly Tuesday, before declining

this interpretation is solely a result of the 'adjustment', and thereby the need to have
to write the above

IF the 'corrective process' interpretation is correct, it's possible the price could rally
back up to, or towards the 1.4413 area, and while it may go lower, shouldn't drop to
the 1.4115 level but may say drop to the 1.4170 area, then rally in an irregular series
of waves
 
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