Wallace Euro Trades

W

Wallace

I've decided to post here in the Journal rather than Technical Analysis forum since
I'll be posting trades, pip gains/losses in addition to analysis of the eurusd price

as someone who 'does it all in their head', doesn't use a daily journal, write things
down, I found the weekly posts I wrote made a difference to my analysis and my
trading - bottom line profits
writing it out is a concrete action, and I'm expecting that doing so on a daily basis
will be that much more beneficial

I don't plan on making specific Buy Sell recommendations, rather thoughts about
the euro's price movement together with possible price, time, wave targets, but . . .
as a 'trade-by-the-seat-of-my-pants' trader, I trade as the price moves along and not
at all sure that I can produce any useable pre-trade information on a daily basis

currently most of my trading takes place from about 3pm PST to the early morning
and really those hours on the basis I can make the $s I want via the 6E - I'm Not an
early morning person
I won't at this time be trading the 6E but the eurusd via Oanda, although I'll see if
I can also enter Ninja demo trades to duplicate the real trades made in FXTrade

Oanda's 'FXTrade' online order entry/charting program leaves much to be desired
and is somewhat wonky - the Java component it seems. I just installed the latest
Java version due to freezing charts - not sure if the freeze would have prevented any
order entry - and have already had one Java 'warning' msg, and tho the chart didn't
freeze I couldn't open a new chart, will update this aaw
the plus side of FXTrade is the seconds charts and speed of order execution —
instant
let me repeat that
clk
yes, it's that fast

like many other Oanda traders I also use a MetaTrader 4 unlimited demo as well as
MetaStock offline for analysis. MT4 is setup to Tile Vertically the 5 and 1min charts
plus minimized 15, 60, 4H and D charts; the MT4 data is converted into MS.
generally I have the FXTrade 10sec chart displayed

just lost my previous 500:1 leverage fx broker so I'm back to my Oanda account.
the high leverage means a pip is fx $10 , 6E $12.50 at a low sum of money, $200
and $500 margin whereas Oanda's 50:1 is $4,616 depending on the euro's price.
the high pip value 'caused' me to be a nibbler trader - trading small waves for a few
pips tho more so the 6E than fx - low commission v high spread costs.
while futures trading lends itself to many small profits, fx trades lend themselves to
a longer duration, though with Oanda's usually 0.9 pip spread and instant execution
I still find myself trading the mini waves; will I start to hold trades longer ?

I hope to post the daily update at 3:00pm PST and a post on Sundays prior to the
new week's open


regardless of my posted analysis and price, time, wave targets, I trust it's obvious
that I'm just as likely to be incorrect as correct - maybe more so
my analysis is an ongoing revision process while trading, particularly so when I'm
wrong about what's going on — however no revision of the daily update will be made
 
I've watched your posts for a long time, some on the old M'tec. Looking forward to your analysis and trades.

Regards and Good Trading,
 
NB: two times are referred to: 1: my local PSTime 2: MT4's price bar time - eg: H3:00

very frustrated because of FXTrade problems - see: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=210889

the Daily price closed above two 61s 1.3269/1.3234 drawn from the Aug24 & Sep10 LLs
I believe the price has based and a retracement rally has begun, but being so close
to the 61s, have to wonder how far a rally would travel before turning and dropping to
the 61s
we know the Greek tranche is going ahead and it seems a bit of a stretch to think
that the formality of the payment at the month end should be the cause for the euro
to rally back up to 1.365 or higher, then 'sell on news'. that price would see the
completion of an abc OR a small c is on now and we'll see the drop to the 61s
today/morrow
the 50s come in at 1.3434 and 1.3462 and MT SD and LR channels I've drawn on
the 60m chart see the H1:00/0* bar crossed both median lines, first of the outer
lines around 1.3410 next hour - if it gets that far in the time
* the MT demo I'm using is for some reason +1 hour ahead

just wondering if Nov 16-23 is a base

will try and be more punctual tomorrow, oh and discovered 'historical' trades can be
displayed on FXTrade charts - provided the program functions and I can trade
 
apologies, thanks LeeD and Wallet


keeeeeryest
started FXTrade after posting yesterday, changed from ohlc to heiken-ashi chart and
All chart functions frozen including order entry

I have to say this whole Oanda platform issue has been very upsetting, I felt like crying
because there was noone around I could beat and stomp on - I'm not that kind of guy
no seriously, never cry
but my wa (?) had definitely flown out the window into the record low temperature of
- 6° C here in Hollywood North

the bad news: Oanda Canada's current maximum 50:1 leverage will be dropping to
the IIROC required maximum 33.3:1 leverage - for some not all pairs - others lower
the good news: FXTrade is now RELIABLE - see above thread/link for details , and
Oanda Will - sooner than later but no date yet - be offering clients MetaTrader

an expected 30m nap turned into 3 hrs and I finally got around to placing a trade at
about 3:40am - MT 1m chart attached. I closed the trade early just satisfied that I'd
finally made a profitable trade after several losers over the past few days, satisfying
my hunger was more important than satisfying my wallet
Grob ??? is/was Grob . . . . . ? anyway I remember one of his posts talking about
making 30-50 'wash trades' before he started 'real trading' as a way of dumping the
adrenalin and getting one's head in the right place. course it can be done on a demo
so no money is used, and all but one of my previous losers were my 'gotta trade'
clicking to Sell at the bottom and Buy at the top angst ?? not something I've really
examined, except, I haven't done sufficient prior analysis
a 60m chart's attached - in addition to the FXTrade shot of all my trades to date and
I'll post 4H, D on the weekend. while I'm still doing a lot of analysis in MS I am using
MT more and started to add projection fibos - not 3 but 2 point - and charts are virtu-
ally the same, and MT is definitely much faster to operate but on this demo, I can't
figure out that 4H bar being +1H
7:15am I'm usually asleep at this time, just finished desert, Safeway've had donuts
on sale for weeks now and I've turned into a donut junkie, anyway
the price has boynged the off the 238.2 60min proj fibo and come back up to the
176.4 below the major 50s between which sits the 161.8 - 1.3445 and its the 176.4
to 200 that the price has been spending a lot of time between, like they're like the
legs of Ms Thunderthighs 2004 - white fibo on attached
9:40am must have a sleep - not enough

Analysis: 2:24pm
D: price dropped thru last outer sec, bottom on the outer diagonal down sec, just
above the first 61. an Up day starting today ?
4H: with the median line of a sec moved to the HC of Nov 22, the price has bottomed
on the outer line. I could use a LC on the higher major fibo and bingo, gotta a visual
touch in ms, in mt that level is 1.32915 and the LL 1.32834 - penetration - and C
above the 61
geeze, they're on the 25th already
raised the lower fibo, 61 is 1.32585
60m: has to go down to that lower 61 doesn't it ? 1.32585 and would it then rally ?
low around 10pm ? a smaller pfibo's 261.8 comes in at 1.2335 just above the lower
61 - white fibo. going to have to recheck the charts

trades pics will have to wait
 

Attachments

3:36pm phew, it's a push waiting till 2pm before starting an analysis.
this rambling probably isn't what most readers want so as you've probably noticed
the Analysis part is clearly marked toward the bottom of the page.
just a few conventions:
b = Buy
s =Sell
c = Close - close of price also exit of B/S
ll = Lowest Low
lc = Lowest Close
hh = Highest High
hc = Highest Close
lrc = Linear Regression Channel - mt
sdc = Standard Deviation Channel - mt
sec = Standard Error Channel - ms
pf = projection fibo
cf = down correction
rf = up correction - retracement
add m - mc= major - usually a fibo on the Daily
fxcc = Forex Control Center
fxt = FXTrade
mt = MetaTrader
ms = MetaStock
nt = NinjaTrader
I'm using FxPro's mt4 and their Daily open - 0:00 price bar - is 2pm rather than 3.

meanwhile, I'm out of donuts 6:48pm They're out of donuts

'Forex Control Center' http://www.forexcontrolcenter.com/index.php is a program to
analyze account performance. the free version allows one account, purchase is multi
imports fxt and mt trade history. I'll use this and post a file/s on the weekend but won't
start until I've added funds to my account, probably next week before it's in.

about 8:00pm I'm in angst mode, doing trades I just shouldn't to be doing. It's pretty
obvious the price would go higher than my s entry, to a sd channel, the trade should
have been a b at least. also wondering if I should be trading here at all, start of the
holiday, be interesting to see what the today's volume is. Just got out of trade 2 with
a 20 cent profit, price rallying back up to the line. playing with fxcc missed an entry,
actually the price didn't go as hight as I thought it would, down now breaking the 223.6
next is support by previous prices at 1.33099 , dancing with the fibo level
time for dinner
. . . . .
Thur Nov 25 snow !
after 2 losing s I finally got one and exited gun shy after 10pips, and disgusted went
to bed when the price dropped 20 more pips, and as I see now @ 9am an additional
30 hitting that red '?' and completed the base that I'd estimated would be a lot earlier
breaking out of the sdc at 2:00am and finally rallied another 80 - Up day - and is now
heading toward that 176.4 level again - 40pips away at present

Analysis: 2:45
have to consider if the 176 is an area from which to reverse, then drop to new lows
or a barrier to be broken continuing a rally until at least next Tuesday ? —
it appears now the price is going to continue down
the 4H bar 16:00 rose from the ms 4H chart adjusted sec, tho there was a c below it
if the formation's a base it's a lopsided one and looking as much like a reversal as
anything else. diagonal down 2&1 secs from the nov 4 hc are in play as are the D
secs.
ahaa, I see I missed a s 10:05am. this is the new 4H 20:00 bar which may drop to
the secs median line then continue to rally; ahaa again as I see the h 60 19:00 bar
hit the sec median line, the c above 200. mmmmm. now see a couple of sdcs on
the 5 min would have clearly shown that s. will the outer larger one be broken ? yea
and it rallied back up, kissed it and it's down again.
so it's very quiet trading but may pick up in turn with the opening of the Asian then
European markets.
Just looked at the updated D and seems like the price could drop to the lower 61 at
1.32585 in ms where a sec median line has been adjusted to the Nov 19 hc causing
the outer line to intersect the outer diagonal down line and the 61. could do it today
or . . . oops ! forgot ! 'today' IS friday. that would be good, next week starts a rally
just checked the 6E volume and it lists nov 25 as 0, nov 26 as 103,397
 

Attachments

average daily range of the eurusd in June was 146 pips, October 163 pips per day
what I think I'll do is try and call the day's - next day's Close - ie Up or Down which
is more about my change to longer term trades than any change in my analysis

Analysis
I now have an MT4 demo installed that uses 3pm PST as the new day start time
downloaded from MetaQuotes: http://www.metaquotes.net/en/metatrader4/trading_terminal
and when calling particular bar hours believe they'll be the same for the majority of
MT users

as you know the euro penetrated both 61s and closed above the upper one —
both were re-set to their lls - and, closing below the Aug 6 high which I believe does
confirm a bear market and not a correction prior to a W 5, in fact it's more clear to
me now that the top formation was a large H&S and weak one at that - see chart

also closing just above the Jun 6 lc to Nov 4 hh cf 50.0, and intersection of secs,
and a new sec c 3 positioned with the upper channel on the Nov 4 hc resulting in the
lower channel intersecting the Jun 61 and 76s at the 1.305 - 1.298 area — a straight
drop till Tue/Wed ? or rally first ?

the $ of course is the reverse of the euro, closing above the 61 rf with the 76 just
below 81.5 . is this current rally C of an ABC ? or W 3 ?
going back to That low, I can see the $ bull market's begun, and if the PIIGS are to
be sent to slaughter which is looking increasingly more likely - Greece, now Ireland
and not a completely done deal from the pov of retaining a government and finalizing
the Dec 7 budget, Portugal's 'no, no, no, no, no'; Spain and finally Italy, oh and the
UK ?

the US CAN'T stop the $ shooting up like a Saturn 5 rocket, the $ hit the 74 and like
the euro is past the Aug 6 low, and if the slaughter occurs ? where ya gonna go ?
gold's topped, stocks topped, the yuan ? rouble ? potash ? copper ? soybeans ?
this leg Might be b - w 1 a doing b c to come and a dynamic abc w 2 complete
w 3 , 86.5 ? of 5 waves of - - - w 1 of W 3

news: ECB thurs, NFP fri - expect positive release

latest: 12:15pm the Irish bailout's accepted tho don't know what the interest rate is
some talk of it being 7% v Greece's 5%, the budget tho is yet to come - Dec 7
fxt first trade on 9am PST bar, euro rallied 100+ pips to 1.3357 currently 1.3305



charts: $ W Bull . euro D H&S . 4H . 60m .


I've afternoon appointments tomorrow and won't be able to post until the early evening
 

Attachments

for Tuesday Nov 30/10 early for once

first, the Sunday opening
being on the west coast of North America means I have an extra 4 trading days in
the month - average 22 trading days per month + 4 Sundays = 26 trading days
not everyone wants to trade on a Sunday of course, other people in other parts of
the world will be sleeping etc but 'Sundays' can be great opportunities not only for a
specific Sunday trade, but sets one up for the week with proits
one especially good scenario is a gap open
usually - but Not always - gaps are 'closed', that is the price will travel down or up
through the start/end of the gap. it may do so right after the session opens - today
or take several or many hours - like last week's 12 hours - before beginning to make
the close.
attached is the 5m 80 - 100 pip trade 'available' after the open - no I didn't -
had to go out - the channels and fibo lines were on the chart prior to the opening
. . . . .
have my trading system now and Will trade intraday, my usual hours for now
but what I'm still doing wrong is trading too short a time period - the 1min chart which
is ok for the 6E and using nt's 1 click market order, close and reverse buttons but not
fx - 3 clicks per and where's there's the additional spread cost
have to try and move up to the 5m that has far fewer signals - drudgery

Analysis: 2:30pm
change of plans, just one appointment later

I'm thinking a rally until the 4H4/8:00 bar, more likely the 8 during the european open
target prices: 1.3154 a 38 rf area, 1.3182 the 50 , lots of sideways
don't think it'll get all the way back up to the 61s, but do think it'll go down to the
76ers - at least
see where the 60m bounced off that outer sec ?
and that mcf 61 is just below the 76s at 1.29653 , 1.61 pf at 1.29393 and the 2.61 a
touch above 1.21 - a while away; this pf is based on the nov 4 hh and nov 16 ll

so there may be a bottom for a while and possible run-up correction to that Irish
budget next Tues Dec 7, mind you just thought about the NFP which is probably
going to be positive again, maybe it'll turn out to be a non event
 

Attachments

for Wed Dec 1

DaytoDays trading
M: new month, initial rally but continue Down
W: may see an up week now into next week but overall Down
D: should see a rally begin Up
4H: H00:00 bar should see the beginning of a rally Up

Analysis: 2:40pm
the price has I believe formed a base and will soon begin a rally
both the 60m and 4H have positive positions within secs and while penetrating that
lower 76 , stopped above a 1.61 primary pf
currently the first rfibo I'm running is from the H14:30 ll to H02:15 hh bar so the first
test will be to see if it takes out the h of the H17:45 bar - 38 at 1.30417 and then
continues on up

based on a rfibo from the hh of Nov 19 the 23 would be 1.31634 and 38 1.32824 this
latter which would create a nicely formed retracement w 4 ? / w 2 ? to the wave

I'm still hanging onto the Dec 7 Irish budget and for the upside scenario running till
Monday: http://www.budget.gov.ie/RecoveryPlan.aspx
of course whether or not a budget is passed or held to means little in the overall
EU/PIIGS debt problem, it's just a near-term fundamental, but puts the cat among
the pigeons if it doesn't pass - 'cat among the pigeons' ???
'well what would you put among PIIGS to spook 'em ?'
 
cant see any live trade posted.... except you mention that you trade off 1 min charts.

Do you determine on longer timeframe likely direction of eurusd for next few hours and then scalp in this direction ?

do you use DAX/oil... divergences ?
 
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