Wallace Euro Trades

gawd ! Friday already, where'd the week go ?

bouncesay, bouncesaaaay
I was asleep when the price dropped to and thru the 1.4372 level
if the past week is an example of what the price is going to do until the FOMC then
I just might get my gun out and shoot someone
mind you, 100+ pip bouncesay, bouncesays are nothing to sneer at, almost as good
as straight trends


Friday April 14 session: 3:40pm

I 'think' we may have downside again, a slow one, but no up afterwards, a setup
possibly for a rally next week
if the price does drop, watch the 4H 12-16:00 bars to see if the price bases and a
rally begins. possible low again the 1.4372 level
 
if last Thursday saw the completion of a top - reversal formation of the Feb-Apr wave
it's likely the price will continue declining till the FOMC
a lot is being made of the meeting as a time target, and pure conjecture that some
action or announcement by the Feds will move all markets significantly
while the EU debt situation continues to be factious and fractious, no critical change
has occurred that would see a collapse of the euro and timelines there stretch out for
a couple of months before a major problem may occur
altogether I don't 'expect' a large move down, only a correction


Monday April 18 session: Sunday 5:00pm

I don't think at this time there's upside potential for the euro
the next major lower levels are 1.4174 , 1.14134 and while various cfs can be drawn
on charts, I'm not going to start quoting levels from those but stick with the idea the
price will decline to the major levels

down to 1.4372 area, rally ? till H07:00 ? at least 1.4416 ? 1.4430s ?? then down ?
 
weaker than I'd anticipated
it's difficult with a top as complicated at this one to know where to draw fibos from
but one pf I've drawn seems to have worked since the price closed 1 pip below the
261.8 level on the 60 min chart - which for me means the fibo is correct
what's in question now is if the price will go back down and base or continue up in a
correction move, and then later, break thru the previous lows and go to the next lower
levels at 1.3931 and 1.3895


Tuesday April 19 session: 2:40pm

no easy call here
a base doesn't necessarily mean the price will go back down to the previous lows nor
for that matter a new low wouldn't be made
a corrective action could last several days and there may be some clue what form
the correction may take based on the price basing or not
draw cfs
 
question is, having had several cs on the 50 rf level, will the price now decline or run
up to the 1.4372 level - which is just 10 pips above the 61 rf level ?

Tuesday April 19 session: 3:00pm

yesterday's 'draw cfs' was meant to be 'draw rfs'

difficult to know if a declines starts here, is it a correction prior to a new high, and
how low it should go and remain a correction - rather than a down move, or will the
price simply take off up ? the next 2 4H bars may tell the tale to come
and then what ?
the price could go thru a reversal formation presuming it continues to rally
Friday the markets are closed for Good Friday - excepting most fx brokers will still
be trading - so there's a possibilty of there being a sideways correction period thru
Thursday and a decline beginning on Monday, alternatively a decline starts Thursday
 
a holeday for my charts, 6E v spot, hmmm, what's the difference ???

I gave a thought yesterday to the price running up to the 1.45 again, a reversal form-
ation was what I thought but my speculation ended there, in part because of think-
ing about Wednesday being The day
my thinking was also influenced by the price drop on the 4H from the 1.45 which for
all intents is a straight angle down, fast market running corrections, and even on the
D it's the first correction without an up day since last year
depending on how the sdc is drawn - outer line on lows or ml thru last hc, the price
has gone thru the ml and could go to 1.47 or, topping at the ml 'may', start a decline

my inclination to the downside is looking for a correction, not a continuing rally
if the price were to drop all the way back down to the 1.41 area I'd have to think that
beginning Wednesday there'll be an explosive rally - or has it started already
the alternative continue rallying suggests the Fed announcement will be a non event


Thursday April 21 session: 3:15pm (got the day correct this time)

today's 74.55 close of the DX is below the Nov 09 LC, that bar's LL 74.01 , so the DX
is at a make-or-break level, but, no reason why a new low couldn't occur and a rally
begin after the low
so there's a could-be scenario for the euro that it continues to rally till Wed but,
begins a decline from whatever high it reaches

the price just keeps going up, or, watch if the price breaks 1.4470 which presumes
the price continues down
 
back again to the DX - charts attached
3 possible interpretations:
- price is completing w 2 of the new $ bull market
- price will base around 0.71 , possibly higher
- price is going to drop below 0.71
Wednesday 12:30pm EST is soon to arrive and I expect the euro to drop some prior
to the FOMC announcement
the US is one of the last countries to make any rate adjustment, resulting in a re-pricing
of its currency - or at least the beginning of a re-pricing. many believe the Feds won't
raise till next year, which means the $ will continue to fall. corporate earnings are at
extreme highs again and if the US still manufactured, the International Trade figures
would be even higher
the next FOMC meet isn't until June 21-22 , so whatever is said on Wednesday has
to last a while, and it may be the Feds will squeak by not having to do anything this
month but make a polite and insipid blancmange statement


Monday April 25 session: Sunday: 5:00pm

2 upper levels, 1.4717 and 1.4667 whereas spot is 1.46665 and will the price rally to
then complete a reversal formation during most of this session then begin a sell-off
alternate is the top is in and the next 4H will see the price beginning its decline
 

Attachments

well the price has been a lot slower than I'd thought it would be, on the other hand
it's to be expected, or is it ?

Chairman Bernanke will meet the press on Wednesday at 2:15pm EST


Tuesday April 26 session: 3:00pm

at present the 1.4519 level seems to be the base for the price
I hadn't expected to be looking at spot everyday as I'm now doing, mostly because
of the backwardation - will that ever catch up ? - which has produced different levels
or at least some differences in fibo levels. the 1.45194 spot level is what the price
came up to between the 12th and 15th which is why it's strong, whereas the 6E has
the appearance of floating in noman's land between levels

wondering if the 6E will drop down to the 1.4416 - 1.4372 by way of a completing ? a
correction by the week end; has a reversal formation completed and will the decline
now continue ? or just more sideways ?
 
FMOC announcement - 12:30 pm EST - press questions - 2:15pm EST


Wednesday April 27 session: 2:50pm

having reached 1.4640 I think the 6E price will finally hit the 1.4667 level, not sure if
it'll get to the 1.4717 level tho
the spot high was even closer - 11pips from the 1.46665 level, what's the possibility
of the 1.47518 level being hit ?

higher highs first, and watch out for a possible fast sell-off
 
well the road ahead's pretty clear isn't it - UP

many have already said there'll be no rate increase until 2012 which leaves a large
amount of time for the $ to continue down. the M LC is 72.25 - lower for the W and
D , but long term analysis will have to wait till the weekend


Thursday April 28 session: 2:55pm

next three 6E levels: 1.4905 - 1.5017* - 1.5144* - 1.5202
* 'major' levels; the 1.5144 you may know is the Nov 2009 HH

spot has had a close just above the 1.47874 level and dropped below it, next up are
1.49050 and 1.50557

spot and the 6E Ds have the price right against upper sdc lines, and on the Ws the
price is now well above the ml looking for the 1.5168 spot Nov 2009 HH

some downside prior to more up ?
 
today's the first I've noticed the 6E - spot price has narrowed, last check they were
about 13 pips apart. not sure what that means, will have to do some research but is
it that the overall price momentum ? / value ? is weakening ?


Friday April 29 session: 2:50pm

the current formation - looking at the 30min has possibilities of rallying back up to
the 1.4855 area to form a top - reversal formation; also the possibility of a decline
after the market opens, dropping to a new low, completing a correction prior to a
new rally

this current trend that began on April 18/19 hasn't printed a down day even during
its mid rally correction, and it's possible this session may be a down day that also
doesn't print red at the close of business

sdc wise the price remains strong both in the larger and narrower channels, mid way
between fibo levels is also ok too

downside - 1.4717 level and 1.4710 which is one 61 cf level
but, has a correction enough completed for the rally to now continue ?

look both ways before entering the trade ;)
 
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