Wallace Euro Trades

the Mar 11-16 formation is so large that the run up and pop thru of the higher 1.40421
level seems more of a stretch just to learn where that level is before blowing thru it
the 1.4051 high stopped at the m l, bearing in mind the sdc can be and is adjusted
from time to time, and since I can't see the formation of the last few days as a rever-
sal formation, have to believe the price will continue to rise


Thursday Mar 17 session: 4:30pm

looking at the 15 min chart, the two HCs were a touch above/below the lower level
1.40339 and the LC between the closes on the 50 cf; so the expectation is for the
price to return to the 1.3880 area, complete the correction and then begin the next
advance, possibly with the H 04:00 bar
 
I haven't been posting because I'd developed a major trading problem
I've now discovered that it was a conflict between the timeline that the posts are
related to and the intraday/scalp trading timeline
the posts seem to have moved me a long way from intra/scalp trading, well into the
realm of Day-to-Days trading
now I've solved the problem, I need some demo trading for a while, meanwhile
I'll do a Sunday update, maybe one or more during the week, but concentrate on
getting back into profitable scalping


PIIGS + Others Debt - via CIA World FactBook - data 2010 est
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html

I was amazed at the amount of Ireland's External Debt, also that of the UK, and note
Japan's Public Debt amount

. . . . . . . . . . population . . . GDP . . . Public Debt . . . External Debt
Portugal . . . . . 10.8 M . . . . $247 B . . 83% GDP . . . . . $497.8 B
Ireland . . . . . . 4.7 M . . . . . $172 B . . 94% GDP . . . . . $2.253 T ***
Italy . . . . . . . . 61 M . . . . . $1.8 T . . . 118% GDP . . . . $2.223 T
Greece . . . . . 10.8 M . . . . $322 B . . . 144% GDP . . . . $532.9 B
Spain . . . . . . 46.8 M . . . . $1.4 T . . . . 63% GDP . . . . . $2.2 T
Belgium . . . . 10.4 M . . . . $397 B . . . 98% GDP . . . . . $1.24 T *
Canada . . . . . 34 M . . . . . $1.3 T . . . 34% GDP . . . . . . $1 T
France . . . . . 65 M . . . . . $2.2 T . . . . 83% GDP . . . . . . $4.7 T
Germany . . . 81 M . . . . . $2.9 T . . . . 78% GDP . . . . . . $4.7 T
Japan . . . . . 126 M . . . . . $4.3 T . . . . 225% GDP . . . . . $2.4 T
UK . . . . . . . 63 M . . . . . . $2.2 T . . . . 76% GDP . . . . . $8.98 T ***
US . . . . . . . 313 M . . . . . $14.7 T . . . 59% GDP . . . . . . $14 T
EU . . . . . . . 500 M . . . . . $14.8 T . . . 73.6 GDP . . . . . . $18 T . . . 09 data Wiki


Week's session: Sunday March 27: 2:30 pm

back in Nov/2010 the HH hit a 76 rf from the Nov/2009 HH, and last Monday's HC
was + 1.8 pips above the Nov/2010 HC , and just over the ml of ms secs I have on
the ms D chart

I'm expecting some sell-off again, probably down to the old 1.40421 1.40339 levels
with the possibility of the price dropping to 1.39996 , or in between - or has the down-
side ended ? - ending with the opening of the Europe session, which may see the
beginning of a rally till the week end and NFP release, and still another week to go
until the ECB announcement

while the 2010-11 formation has the appearance of a symmetrical reversal formation
it's much more likely imo that the price will continue to rally, and in the longer term
anywhere up to the 1.50 again
nearer term there's several levels based on pfs and higher rf levels: 1.4375 1.4440
1.4560 1.4665 but a major or significant price may be the 1.44 area, seeing if the
price goes thru that or stops there a while
 
Friday's NFP consensus info:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . . Consensus . Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change . . 192,000 . . 200,000 . . 150,000 to 310,000
Unemployment Rate - Level . . . . . 8.9 % . . . .8.9 % . . . . 8.7 % to 9.1 %

not a lot to say, obviously the price didn't rally like I thought it might
I'll leave additional analysis till Sunday but you have to wonder if we've already seen
the top for the euro

Thursday Mar 31 session: 4:15 pm

I'm presuming that the price is just going to drift down again until the NFP release
down to the 1.4030 area levels, possibly, , , those around 1.3960s or an in between
 
another one to remember - ESM - European Stability Mechanism

he ? said the US debt to gdp ratio was more like 500% and that interest rates going
to 6+% would be a result of the debt, not inflation

bets are on the ECB Will raise the EU interest rate from 1% to 1.25% on Thursday
7:45am EST. but, perhaps more, or as significant may be a statement whether or
not there will be More rises to come, 2% by year end
'buy on rumour sell on news', either way, if there's no increase a sell-off, raise, still
a sell-off ? but an aggressive/assertive 'rates will continue to rise' statement ought
to result in a rally, ought it not ?
meanwhile, Ireland are already lobbying for a reduction of debt loan rates and an
ECB rate rise further harms the economy, hitting the rising mortgage delinquencies
but Germany wants the increase; PPP increases with the higher valued euro and
imports cost less, but exports cost more
emerging countries and including China and India have been increasing rates and
the ECB is expected to be next, UK in May ? and the US ?
the HC of the W and M are well above the Oct 2010 HC and the D Nov 2010 HC but
the Oct/Nov 2010 HH has yet to be breached. there are many lines the price is on
that penetrating will see a rally; when it comes to time targets, obviously in order to
reach 12 o'clock, time has to pass 9 , 10 , 11 o'clock, and so while this week is a
time target, there are other future time targets, and one of those is the last week of
April, and the month end, the week of the FOMC announcement on April 27 , which
brings into consideration, will the Fed raise the FFRate on the 27th ?

Monday April 4 session: Sunday 3:30pm

the price movement/formation of the previous 2 weeks was a toughie to keep track
of with the double whammy of NFP, plus the forthcoming ECB announcement result-
ing in an extended period of 'correction'
I don't see any reason why the price couldn't decline again to the 1.4100 - 1.4050
area, and I don't see any reason why the price couldn't rally to the 1.4400 area
60/40 on a continued rally
 
'Gird Up Your Loins'
get your pointy stick, your banana, fish - fish ? and remember to
squeeze tight at 7:44:59am EST


Thursday April 7 session: 4:00pm

finally. we're rid of that ziggy wiggy waggy zaggy correction
my charts and perhaps yours look empty without the fibos that the price stepped
up these last many months
there are of course more fibos, additional rfs and pfs; the previously stated 1.44
target is based on various lines other than fibos, and the following prices are new
rf levels: 1.43724 , 1.44480 , 1.45194 , 1.46665 should be enough for now
I'll leave the pf targets till the weekend - presuming there will be a rate rise ;

!!!rEEEaKsHUn
a bit tough to call, does it depend on what sort of statement is made about future
rate increases ? and how soon they may come ? but overall, I'll bet even if there is
a bear trap sell-off at first, the rally is likely to continue
 
as and when ECB live broadcasts: http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

want an mt4 with the 6E contract ? most futures + etc, unlimited demo:
http://www.brocompany.com/brokerage-services/open-demo-account/broco-trader/

attached is my 'T3 Scalp' 'system' - Not a set of how-to trading rules but a ramble
about my recent trade/analysis conflict, resolution and current scalp charts setup
zip contains pdfs and indicators for nt 6.5 - 7 and mt4

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

the $ is continuing its decline and you've probably noticed a pickup in references to
the Apr 26/7 FOMC
likewise I'm mentioning it early because of time targets, and it will also be a month
end, but more relevant is on the Daily where the price is hitting mls, which previously
the price has bounced off, and very close to ml on the W
then there's the about 74.50 price that's previously held in 09 and 10 . for the price
to hit the M ml it will have to break 74.50 and it would then be a question of will the
price go to 70 ?
what 'could' stop the $ decline around 74/73+ is a surprise FFRate increase, or a
'strong vigilance' type statement from the Fed

what I'm expecting then for the euro is more upside this week then a period of corr-
ection until the FOMC, and depending what comes out of the announcement may
setup another month of rally during May
there remains the possibility the price Continues to Rally Into the week of the FOMC
orrrrr, decline this week, rally next week ?


Monday April 11 session: Sunday: 3:00pm

remember that gap - 6E April 9-12/10: 1.3506 - 1.3628

now that I have a full set of 6E charts I'm switching to those and don't plan on keep-
ing the eurusd charts up to date, except for the the 60 4H and D maybe on Wed and
the weekend, so will be quoting 6E prices and levels, while any time targets will be
the same for both spot and futures; if that's a problem for eurusd traders, pm me

that said but because I'm updating charts - Lots of them here's new prices and one
spot 1.4667 s1.46820 - 85 rf, and together with pfs, 1.47 to 1.48 areas - for now

those 60 min bars on Friday - H15 thru H20 were all closing on or around 1.4416 -
which just happened to be the higher rf 61
 

Attachments

this journal works as a sort of confessional, confessing analysis or trading sins and
I sinned last night while demo trading, another rogue trader session
I'd made one sell that was profitable and re-entered expecting the price to drop to or
thru the 61 . I should have been extra cautious of course because we know don't we
that the price doesn't always drop to/thru the lines, in fact more often than not they
Stop prior to reaching them. so 35 seconds after entering the short in comes 410
contracts and the price jumps from my fill of 1.4424 to 1.4436 and besides the fact
the rally is now on, there's nothing one can do when such volumes hit
so then I went on a rogue trader spree with a last entry of 5 sell at 1.4450 bringing
the total contracts to 10 and the average at 1.4441
I could have gotten out with profit several times but was determined to have my pound
of flesh - blood and all, but eventually closed the trade, reset the sim account and
went to bed
playtime over, no more rogue trading, down to business


Tuesday April 12 session: 3:00pm

more downside to the 1.4372 level ? 4H bar 8:00 ? 12 ? or earlier ? then rally ?
 
some profitable demo trading, renewed my aquaintance with the REV button, quite
like it, should be one on fxt
not really trading the secs chart alone, might try that this session


Wednesday April 13 session: 3:15pm

thinking the price may decline again to the 1.4416 , similar timing as yesterday -
then up ?
don't think the rally's topped, the D crossed an sdc ml last week and is still above it
we'll see
 
GO CANUCKS ! ! !

both the W and now D have the price sitting on their respective sdc mls, and whereas
spot has hit the 1.4519 level, the 6E hasn't; so in some respects I guess one Has to
keep an eye on both instruments and their charts
the formation based on the Cs of the D look like a reversal or at least a corrective
formation. the price on the 4H has penetrated the lower sdc line and come back up
to close above the 1.4416 level

in a complete reversal of what I wrote yesterday, I think serious consideration has
to be given to the idea that the euro Has, Topped
not only the current trend and W and D charts, but the whole 2008-to date formation
when considered as a retracement formation prior to another leg down

this is not to say the price couldn't - after the FOMC continue up to a new high while
going thru a possible reversal formation - which the euro is prone to do, with the most
recent exception being last year's May-June immediate turnaround from 1.18+ after
the Greek crisis

I'll leave it at that for the present


Thursday April 14 session: 3:15pm

downside
how much ?
hmmmmm . . .
first obvious level is 1.4372 , then 1.4174-34 , these are the major rf levels the price
shold interact with on the way down
will wait to see if - when the price breaks 1.4372 before I start drawing cfs
 
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