Wallace Euro Trades

I'm wondering if we'll now see a down week, not a large sell-off you understand, just a
go-down to . . . 1.3760 area ? - revisionable

with the threat or promise of a rise in ECB rates, it's a 'buy on rumour sell on news' rally
to come with All Fools day this year falling on April 7 , the next ECB announcement
I can see Trichet unendingly threatening a rate increase without actually doing so
meanwhile, the $ will continue to fall, the euro rally, the EU PPP will increase, and
everyone's happy


Monday Mar 7 session: Sunday 1:45pm

might the price rise into the 1.4030s/40s ? a close on or just above those levels ?
then the beginning of a correction down ?
 
so far I'm looking for downside till the Wed/Thur session, but nowhere near that
1.3760 area I wrote yesterday

Tuesday Mar 8 session: 4:05pm

price currently has bounced off a 38 cf and may go back up to the 1.3970 area again
before dropping to a lower fibo level which would coincide with the old 1.38947 and
1.38815 levels which would end the drop/correction ?

however; I can't neglect the idea that this simple correction is it, and the price may
continue to rally, so 1.3976 has to be watched to see if the price begins to accelerate
past it, re-newing the buy side, potential new highs
 
the price movement so far has been a fairly straight forward correction, and while the
price dropped thru the 1.38815 level, did bounce off a cf level then close on one
what I'm thinking now is some upside then a decline to a new low


Wednesday Mar 9 session: 4:15pm

the upside idea is till bar 2:00 ? 1.3920 ? then the decline, although now the price
is falling, could continue dropping, or only go up as far as the 1.3910 area
and there could be a longer more complex sideways correction that takes the time
target out to bar 4:00 , bar 8:00

the next downside old levels are 1.37752 and 1.37578 , between here and there is a
pretty good level around 1.38413 , then 1.38114 , the old levels and a 61 at 1.37217

the possible time targets are bar 16:00 this session and bar 8:00 Thursday

then again, one might ask, 'is the correction over ?' - 'could a base be forming ?' -
'will the price stop at 1.38815 ?' - 'has a retracement started ? - a new rally ??'
 
one perspective is that the formation between the lows of the previous 2 sessions is
a base, inferring a retracement rally, or, a new rally - new highs
another perspective is a complex correction ended in the previous high session and
the price has started to fall, will continue till it completes the next leg down
and, a drop down and close on or about 1.38715 might be a third leg of a base


Thursday Mar 10 session: 4:55pm

what Should the price be doing ?
should it be going lower, or has it gone as low as it needs to
should be starting the next rally higher

yesterday's high was a 61 rf of the Tuesday high, if the price were to retrace the high
of the 7th, then another 61 would take it to the 1.39577 / 1.39684 levels
but as the current price completed a 61 of the previous high, will it now dump ?
 
with the last day of the trading week session, we may have a somewhat quiet time
while heading to that 1.3760 area


Friday Mar 11 session: 3:30pm

you'll remember the 1.37752 level which has been hit and the 1.37578 to come
that higher level coincides with a new cf 50 , the 61 of that is around 1.37217 while
the next lower old levels are just above the upper gap line

we may see a new low, and possibly and up close on the day, another down week
to start next week. expanded analysis Sunday
 
this weekend is 'spring forward' and some MetaTrader providers will be starting an
hour later than the North American markets, depending on the country the broker is
located in. not sure yet if my Alpari NY demo will start at 3pm pst or not, Alpari have
different account types with different trading hours. FxPro, Cyprus and now the UK
I see had a 2pm pst start for some reason so they may start at 'normal' hours
all MT brokers will be on regular trading hours after Friday, March 25, 2011

I'm wondering if we'll have another period of correction like the Feb 1-15 period
I don't think it's necessary from a price pov, rather the time pov since there's still 4
weeks till the ECB announcement, so the price has to do something till it presum-
ably rallies into April 7
the $ on week Mar 4 held the 76.41 area matching the Nov 5/10 LC forming what
currently looks like a base and the possibility of the $ flying back up, maybe 81+
again; the Daily tho still provides the down scenario and I think part of this week at
least will see a dollar rally before it turns and begins to head down


Monday Mar 14 session: Sunday 2:50pm

Oanda's price has been as high as 1.3982 some 80+ pips above the Friday close
and even tho the price has come off that high, there should still be some opportunity
for a 'close the gap' trade
the price may go back up to that high again, and may go higher but overall I'm still
expecting a decline
 
hmmmmm
Bernard111: "but"
'but' what ?
the Fed announcement is for me a non event, although, perhaps I was cavalier in not
having referred to it
I was also expecting the price to decline, however the predominant question for me
was after the price bottomed on Friday, what was the price going to do next ?
and what exactly was the previous formation ? was it part of a correction ? was it the
whole correction ? would the price rally to a retracement level ? rally to that previous
high - form a reversal formation ? continue rallying ?
but hadn't I already 'decided' this would be a down week ?
it may well be that the FOMC has been a 'buy on rumour sell on news' since Friday's
bottom, so let's do that, " let's see "


Tuesday Mar 15 session: 6:45pm

the price has hit the 85 rf level and appears to be in decline mode; it's topped ???

but I think it's a bit of a toss-up which way the price will go
a correction down to the old 1.39577 , then more upside ?
next correction leg down is underway ?
down until the FOMC ?
price'll only go higher . . .
 
typo yesterday - 1.39577 should have been 1.37578

hot for a drop I never thought to list the old levels the price dropped to last night
both the D and 4H highs have stopped against the median line of the sdcs drawn on
those charts. while the lower tfs suggest the price has topped and begun a decline
both the D and 4H look as tho they could continue rising up the m l making a new H
in the process
if the Mar 7-11 formation was a complete correction then it's possible we on a new
rally that will break the Oct 2010 H


Wednesday Mar 16 session: 6:30pm

the price could go thru the upper old 1.40421 level and still retain what currently
appears as a reversal formation. the next higher levels 1.41617 have already been
crossed by the outer sdc line so if the price were to run to the levels it might break
them and go up to the 1.4190s to hit the upper sdc line
the downside is the price could stop here or anywhere down to yesterday's low and
then take off in rally mode
watch what's going on if the price does go down to yesterday's low to learn if the
price will continue a drop thru those levels
 
did you also experience the NinjaTrade problem ? which has now gone away —
at least till the next one: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=217104
but no feedback from NinjaTrader


currently my mt4 Daily chart is printing a second down day and still looks as tho it
could drop down to the 1.37578 area, the Weekly too is down
the HLH of previous sessions has I believe been a reversal formation and I think the
decline will continue to, but end in the Friday session


Thursday Mar 17 session: 4:30pm

well that 44 pip spike just before the close upped the price above the 1.39577 level
but just short of the 1.39684 level, and I'm wondering if those levels will come into
play again; another sideways correction again similar to Mar 8-9 ? then break the
1.38947 and 1.38815 levels - when ? before, at, during the Friday session ?

wrong ! correction over - rally from here
 
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