well the above was another correctly wrong analysis
it was also only this morning I heard the talk about the ECB rate increase possibility
but doubt it would have changed what I was thinking - or would it ?
my gross oversite was not having considered THE basic currency fundamental â
interest rates, will they be lowered ? will they be raised ?
checking back I now realize the 294 pip rally on Jan 13 was the result of Trichet's
comments - which I didn't read - nor the interpretations that followed:
Peter Garnham January 13 2011 23:34 - Financial Times UK:
"Mr Trichet struck a hawkish tone after the central bankâs policy meeting â at which
it left its main lending rate at 1 per cent â emphasising that the ECB was prepared
to raise interest rates to keep prices stable."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cee9c1c4-1efc-11e0-b3ba-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CvtIKYDv
then yesterday's statement which appeared to have the hawkishness removed, and
perhaps some back-peddling is being done, and here's his problem:
'Trichet Battling With a Knotty Problem' Alen Mattich Wall Street Journal
"Trichet is doing a fair imitation of a pretzel. The European Central Bank's president
is having to tie himself in knots to square euro-zone monetary policy.
On the one hand, the German economy is belting along. Throw in rising global
commodity prices and there's a serious risk of an ugly inflationary cycle kicking off
in Europe's biggest economy.
On the other, crisis-crippled countries at the periphery are barely managing to stay
afloat. The ECB is having to make sure they have enough liquidity to keep their
banking sectors from foundering and low enough interest rates to keep the countries
from falling into a cycle where deflation makes the existing debt burden ever harder
to eliminate."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703652104576122202590183960.html
who'll raise first ? the ECB or the Feds ?
Friday Feb 4 session: 4:00pm
the immediate question is: has the major Buy changed to major Sell ?
my bet is it hasn't, but in part how this session closes the week may help to confirm
the answer
currently the M has changed to a Sell, the W is still a Buy, the D we know is Sell
we've previously seen the price penetrate the 1.36264 gap line and close in the gap
but not on any level that I had on my mt charts, excepting ms projection fibos
I'd done that before, been late applying pfs, and while they don't take over c/r fibos
they can be more accurate since they're based on the trend itself, even tho the price
at present is traveling down to the levels
on the way up, the level based on the close back into the gap on Jan 25 on the 4H
08:00 bar is 1.35914 , and while the dip-in on Jan 28-31 had higher closes, the low of
bar 4H 00:00 on Jan 31 was 1.35701 compared to Jan 25's 1.35725
so presuming this session to be quiet, that is a price collapse won't occur, can we
expect the price to continue a now slow decline to the 1.35914 and 1.35701 levels
or pass thru them ?
subsequent levels are 1.35590 , 1.35429 , 1.35342 then the gap at 1.34981 , but the
one that matters at present, is the 1.3570 , can the price hold that level ?
