Wallace Euro Trades

Thursday Jan 13 session: 7:00am

obviously not a down day

the EUers/Germany/Merkel are now kissy-kissy with the PIIGS and buying the bond
offerings, and committed to doing so. whether or not this eliminates default by any
single member remains to be seen, the EUers will tho extend every effort to prevent
that from happening, and it seems to be working

I've been using the fibo fan a lot more, but there isn't or I don't know of strict rules of
its use as the channel and fibo tools have, so their use is arbitrary and since waves
are not standardized, ffs are frequently adjusted, but do serve quite well on many tfs
as levels or at least guides the price will move to, provided one can get the 'throw'

I've one on the 60 in ms that runs from the Nov 4/10 HC to the top of the Jan 4/11
and -as I write - about 6:15am, the price is moving - is just above the 'current' price
and it is thereby a major diagonal 'resistance' level; price is below the Jan 4 H but
only horizontally, so here's a point that broken thru should, again see the eurusd fly

the weekly - this week is obviously Up - - and, 'oh my goodness', just ffed the W and
a similar line is stretching from July 13/08 , running thru tops, so Have to 'believe'
the Bull is loosed and will go a Long way - Major Buy - yes. I Know I'm only a week late
but now I've got my WWs sorted : )

it's difficult to be accurate at present - analysis 'on the go' - see weekend update but
the 'cleared the hurdles' last resistance - ffs Weekly - will be around the 1.3500 area
depending on how soon the price gets up there

meanwhile, the 76 rf at 1.3299 , oh, see it's been passed

not going to bother trying to pick levels - 'it's gone'
 
this 1.3340 through 1.3380 level should be tough. cycle gurus say we'll see a temp peak by end of week before a retracement, then perhaps as high as 1.3550 before the decline that is to last the rest of the year begins.
 
Tsing Tao, don't know your 'cycle gurus', more relevant to me is the gap starting at
1.3498 - see the weekend analysis.


Friday Jan 14 session: 3:30pm

possible correction down to about 1.3300 area, maybe 4H04:00 , 1.3258 4H08:00
but more upside - I think, possible target of 1.3498 ?
 
Friday Jan 14 session: 8:00am

really not sure what the price is doing, going to do, or how it'll close - hold around
the 1.3340 area ? ? ?

while the session high didn't close on the Dec 14 H, the DX did break the 79 level
and make a LL for this Nov 30 current formation, not that that says a hell of a lot
it's not until next week that there may be some resolution of whether or not the euro
goes higher or has topped. see you then
 
Thursday's 6E record volume - bostin' 500k for the first time - 518,037 contracts


Monday Jan 17 session: Sunday 2:15pm

faced with writing these updates particularly at such points as the eurusd is now at
a simple question to ask myself is, 'am I still holding the 'Jan 11' Buy' ? — yes
and the same and more so applies to the Weekly chart

Mon-Tues sees EU Finance Ministers meeting/discussing but not finalizing a further
debt planning; whether or not any statement is issued Wednesday, that's the day
I'm noting as a . . . correction over day ? or, will it be the day the price breaks thru
the upper gap level ?

the gap I'm referring to occurred on April 9-12/10 between 1.34981-1.36264 and I've
no info relating to why the price gapped, unlike the May 7-10 gap that was related to
the Greek debt financing being placed
the possibility is that the price can rally from here and continue rising; the attached
chart illustrates how the price has interacted with these gaps since they occurred
and most recently on Dec 14/10 the HH came within an exact 1 pip of touching the
beginning of the gap

Oanda who appear to have made a permanent reduction to their 'weekend spread'
currently at 5pips - 2:05pm are displaying a price declining from 1.3417 to 1.3377
so there's a possible gap down for the open and a correction is on, possibly lasting
till the Euro open ? hold the 1.3310 area ? drop to 1.3270 ? or lower ??? 1.3210 ?
 

Attachments

Tuesday Jan 18 session: 5:50pm

looking for 1.3234-1.3216 ? area during the 4H04:00 ? bar, then a rally ?

longer term 1.3200 , 1.3150 - will see about those late this session or tomorrow's
 
Tuesday Jan 18 session: 7:25am

missed on that last one ! ! !

next rally's on

there's a last level at 1.3467 before the gap starts at 1.3498
levels after are 1.3534 1.3559 , and after the gap end at 1.3626 , a coinciding level of
about 1.3624 ; additional levels are at 1.3633 1.3655

not sure if the price will 'close the gap' this session, may update prior to close
 
Oanda clients know the company will be providing MetaTrader 4 in the near future.
my concern is will they use their '24/365' hour data feed, the answer so far is yes.
I don't want that feed because it will create large empty spaces between price bars
on charts, add unwanted price bars that occur prior to the rth Sun/Mon open, and in
turn change charts considerably rendering them from mpov unusable.
I've emailed Oanda about my concern and asked them about providing 2 MTs, one
with the 24/365 hours feed and one with the rth feed, tho of course their concern is
for trading not charting. if Oanda only provides the 24/365 feed then I'll continue with
the Alpari demo, I won't in any case use the Oanda MT to enter trades but continue
using fxt due to its instant execution.
if you have similar concerns, email them to: frontdesk@oanda.com

Wednesday Jan 19 session: 3:00pm

I seem to have been well out of synch with the price

looking at the Daily the price could continue down completing a correction while still
retaining the Buy. if the price breaks 1.3334 the next level is 1.3269 for support -
tho it could stop and reverse anywhere before then - and below that, 1.3234 and
1.3216 , and if those levels, possibly taking until the Thursday session to hit

another consideration is a reversal formation has completed, a top is in, and the
price has now become a Sell. I think it's a Sell anyway - or am I still out of synch ?
as I write the price is going up - a temporary Sell if the price is going to correct down

upside, previous high, gap . . .
 
Wednesday Jan 19 session: 6:00pm

the price managed a couple of 60min closes in the gap but stopped after hitting the
the 1.3534 level, but it did make it up there
while neither the 4H or D made a close in the gap, it's no big deal; recall the idea
that at 'significant' levels a close will occur below the level - as the 4H did and then
pass thru it later. presuming that'll be the case, the resistance level above 1.35643
will be 1.3559 but don't expect the price to stop there as it may just blow thru

more pertinent is what sort of correction is occurring, and it could be over with the
completion of this 4H00:00 bar - or is it already over ??

we could also see a drop to the 1.3365 and/or 1.3334 area, or for that matter have a
down day depending how slow such a move could be, say bar 17:00 , although I've
repeatedly over-estimated such corrections
 
it is of course the Thursday Jan 19 session: 7:35am

the current price formation is another of those 'go on, try and figure me out, I dare you'
the price looks as tho it's going to close down, maybe into the 1.3365 and/or 1.3334
area, but the way it's been holding around the 1.3434 level area, it's quite possible
for it to go sideways into the close and begin a new rally from there, or even earlier,
anywhere from 'now' into the close
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top