Wallace Euro Trades

Thursday Dec 30 session: 9:00am

will make this the last update for this session and it may serve for the opening of the
Friday session - in case I'm still asleep

with the presumption the price won't make a new high, has rather started a correction
I'll suggest that the price will fall to 1.3220 or 1.3184 - strongish support levels, tho
the price may dither in between them, until - anywhere between 22:10 and 00:00 and
possibly some evidence of a base formation, the expectation being a new rally begins
if the price moves primarily sideways then the low may only be around 1.3256


although a new daily high has been made, it doesn't necessarily negate a reversal
formation - based on the 4H ; there could also be a larger correction down to 1.3190
or 1.3160 with the possibility then of a new rally to new highs, however it'll be during
the next session that we may learn which of these various scenarios will play out
 
Friday Dec 31 session: 11:30pm

the price has broken several resistance levels and doing running corrections in the
direction of the trend, an obvious strong move notwithstanding the holiday week and
still low volume on the 6E

having broken the 1.3334 and 1.3365 resistance levels the next set are 1.3434 and
1.3462 , and these levels relate with the Dec 3 and 14 highs, and while those highs
have yet to be reached and surpassed, the geometry of the current price has actually
passed them suggesting a Lot more upside

I don't have upside targets except those stated above; the price is so strong at this
time it could keep going like the Energizer bunny and until the Dec 14 HH of 1.3497
is taken out I don't see a 'lengthy' correction occurring before next week
 
Friday Dec 31 session: 5:30am - last update this year

the last HH passing the 1.3365 level to 1.3389 may have been one leg of correction
that might see the price drop to . . . 1.3349 ? or back to the lower level 1.3334 and
taking until bar 15:45 to do so, although 15:05 is also a possibility , then another charge ?

another interpretation might be a top is in and a major correction has begun, if not a
change of trend to Down


Happy and Prosperous New Year — and reviving Polar Bear Swim
 
Monday Jan 3 session: Sun 1:30pm

there's two major scenarios for the eurusd:

- major Up trend, the price will equal or break the previous 1.43 high
- major correction, the price will turn Down and break the 1.30 low

I favor the correction scenario but for how much longer and higher is the price going ?

this week has several notable economic releases - Fed Minutes, ECB, and on Friday
an expected huge increase over last month's NFP, plus Mr Bernake testifying

the euro didn't completely match the $'s move last week but there's the possibility of
it climbing some more until Wed/Thur, maybe making 1.3510
of course if the $ doesn't hold its current levels and breaks down then the euro is
going to fly regardless of the NFP and we'll see 1.36-7-8 , but still a correction

at this time Oanda's low is 1.3328 current 1.3348 so once the session opens it May
open down and that Might be the completion of a correction, but might require a few
more hours to complete

I still see upside and believe the overall trade is still a Buy
 
Monday Jan 3 session: 00:00am

the current correction is I believe of the whole Dec 23-31 move, and will possibly go
down to the 1.3234 area, possibly just above it ? - 1.3239 ?

a larger question remains 'has the uptrend topped ?'
what I should have done last Friday is said 'correction coming - possible top'
so 'I still see upside and believe the overall trade is still a Buy' is the wrong thing to
have written
the trade is a Sell, regardless if it's a short term correction or, what may turn out to
be a major turn Down

an additional support level is 1.3195 area, which doesn't have as much price support
as the 1.3234 level, and it's possible 1.3195 is the 'make-or-break' level that make =
correction while break = topped
 
Monday Jan 3 session: 6:30am

price has held up quite well, but it's likely to drop again to either form a base around
1.3269 or drop to the lower level of 1.3234 , maybe 1.3195
Sell is on

6:40am
oh ! I'd better add since I'll be asleep at the Close/Open that if the price bases at
1.3269 in particular, it may then start to rally back up to the 1.3420s for what may
be a reversal formation
 
Tuesday Jan 4 session: 3:00am

Everyone's back at work

Fed Minutes will be released at 2pm EST +/-

expecting the price to begin to decline in the next couple of hours into the close
maybe to 1.3282 , 1.3269
however, I've had a tendency to expect the price to correct a lot lower than it has in
fact done, so higher levels are 1.3365 and 1.3334
this decline may or may not complete until bar 4H00:00 or end of it - into 4:00 , and
this may then be a correction prior to a new high

there's also the possibility of the completion of a reversal formation, with this current
leg going Up for a few hours rather than declining, so Buys are still in place
 
Wednesday Jan 5 session: 8:15pm

not surprisingly the Daily is registering as a down day

the 4H04:00 bar is on the edge of adjusted support; will the price hold the 1.3269
support level or drop thru it, probably drop. the next level is 1.3234 where there's
also prices support, then the vacuum down to 1.3149 , although there is as you
know a lot of price support throughout that band, but who knows before hand if the
price will step down primly or plunge

the 60 is out of support but could rally a bit for the next couple of hours, but it's the
4H08:00 bar that'll have the tale to tell if a new rally's to begin

needless to say the $ continues to rally off major support


the Dec 31-Jan 4 formation is quite symetrical with yesterday's HH almost touching
the 1.3434 level, but that's all it did
the decline so far could still be a correction leg; however the formation could also be
The top of the Nov 30-Jan 4 formation, and as such, means a Major Sell
 
Wednesday Jan 5 session: 5:45am

the price has now dropped thru the 60 and, 4H support lines, is into the void, close
to the first support ? level of 1.3149 , the second 1.3110 , a band which has quite a
lot of prices support ? and too below the lower level

the ADP was a massive 297,000 gain for December - definition and chart:
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://anasdaq.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=nasdaq
so Friday's NFP Consensus of 140,000 - previous 39,000 is a strong possibility


I should think the price will continue down to 1.3110 and pick some buying into the
Thursday session
 
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