Wallace Euro Trades

Analysis for Dec 24 session: 6:45am

my bet is for an up close rather than down.

maybe the high to 1.3150 or 1.3160 , maybe only 1.3140 , closing under 1.3150

if the price closes up it may turn the Daily bar to Up and breaks the downtrend, but
maybe for one day only, however I'll have more analysis about this on Sunday.


Merry Christmas
 
We are I believe at another inflection point that during this week and next month
will see a major move in the US$ and US$ pairs - whether or not the $ breaks thru
and above the 81.50 level and continues Up, or stops there and reverses direction
the same scenario for the eurusd, but Down

for the euro there's a 140+ pip decline to the 1.2970 level which if broken would see
the euro travel down to the 1.26 area
quite how fast this first decline will be I'm not sure, last week was a slow roll but this
new week should be business as usual


Mon Dec 27 session 1:45pm
how long will it take to top out ? at what price ?
after a couple of hours around 1.3130 ?
the possibility of the price staying up till the European open

upside potential is 1: 1.3170 2: 1.3205 3: 1.3240 and a case for 1.3330 also exists
but a turn down from 1.3130 or thereabouts might be the indication the top has been
reached and the downside's begun
 
Mon Dec 27 session: 07:00am

not sure if the price is going to a new high, in a bit of a no-man's land right here
wondering if bar H17:00 will start to bring some clarity
 
you may have realized that the inconsistent updates is a result of my Not having
switched over to a 4am wake-up and start, and having to take crash naps which
is resulting in the posts being made at the times they are
will see now the holidays are passed if I can stabalize my hours, otherwise for the
present updates will just have to be as and when

Tuesday Dec 28 session: 10:00pm

a top or higher ?
a correction ? or turn ? completes ? at H7:00/8 ? (maybe H7:30 ?)
a tidge higher to 1.3281 ? also: 1: 1.3336 - 2: 1.3365 - 3: 1.3378 and
while the Daily could see a h of 1.3297 ? if rising to the Dec 3 h would see 1.3430s ?
and tomorrow's session may be a top, a trend change day
 
Tuesday Dec 28 session: 6:00am

topped ?
certainly could have, strong sell-off, doesn't need to go higher, could if it wanted to
let's see where the close goes
 
Wednesday Dec 29 session: 8:00pm

I'm expecting more downside, when will it begin ?

the shortest period I have is the 4H04:00 bar, maybe starting at H05:15
but I could be underestimating the price/trading and it could take a lot longer
to go up before reversing

if the price were to duplicate the 27th it could take 12 hours, putting it into the
US session before a decline starts, lots of boring sideways

the key is the price target of 1.3150 area, topside 1.3160s - 27th's highs

but
could the day close Up ?
 
Wednesday Dec 29 session: 7:30am

I can see a small drift sell-off maybe down to 1.3090 or so area or only down to the
1.3110 by H18:00 , then a rally into the close to 1.3160s, maybe 1.3180s

there is too the possibility the price has completed a reversal formation and is now
on its way Down; the possibility is the price dropping again to the 1.3080/70 area
and stop, or drop thru that level to 1.3050s , tho breaking that level particularly when
there's nothing fundamental going on seems a bit too much for today
 
Thursday Dec 30 session: 6:40pm

the Daily chart suggests to me a rally continuing till Wednesday next week with the
price going to 1.3434-1.3462 . the Dec 14 HH was 1.3497 and higher resistance is
at 1.3534-1.3459 - - not to say Wednesday will be the top. more longterm review on
the weekend update

the 4H is providing a different picture - a reversal formation - price now near topping

while the price is above the 1.3234 S/R level it's possible the price will drop below it
to 1.3225-15 ? area until 04:30 ? before resuming the rally - if that's what the price is
going to do
breaking 1.3204 might indicate the top has occurred and it's Down from here on

previous HH 1.3273 - HC 1.3265 from Dec 28 12:00 was a penetration of a 1.3270
S/R level, so if the price breaks thru there's no 'formal' resistance until 1.3335 but
there's a possible top - possibly intermediate top at 1.3287
 
Thursday Dec 30 session: 1:30am

Jobless Claims - 8:30am EST
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . . . Consensus . . Consensus Range
New Claims - Level . . . 420k . . . . . 415k . . . . . . . 414k - 425k
this week's 'seasonally adjusted initial claims' may be low since they're between the
holidays, and there may or may not be some 'adjustment' to last week's figures

the price hasn't broken up so will it just move sideways until the above - bar 14:30
some lower downside targets: 1.3217 - 1.3208 - 1.3200 these prices are somewhat
arbitrary, the price may not go to them, or may drop below them
if the price rallies to the JC announcement up around 1.3270 , I'm tempted to think
the trade would be a Sell
 
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