Wallace Euro Trades

for Dec 10 session

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: Down
4H: Down
60: Down

anyone seen a trend ?
when the Germany data was released the price was bouncing up and down like a
kid being told they were going to Disney World - should have first checked to see
what news/economic reports were to be released.
after another look, am back on the idea of trading the 1m

Analysis: 3:00pm
attow the price is sitting on the 4H lower m61 and lower rising sec line intersected
by falling sec line and I expect the price to now continue Down.
the white cf 50 at 1.3203 is a first resistance then low of 1.3164 sitting on a rising
outer sec line - to 1.3194 - 1.3176 is the black pf 1.38 - which once passed through
should see some free fall, the white 61 cf is around 1.3149
next week's low target is first the Nov 30 1.30 area, then we'll see

the only alternate I have to add is if the price stops around 1.32 then rallies back up
to the 1.33+ area creating an unnecessary reversal formation, no fundamentals to
suggest it happening, unless 'they' want a clear run at the Sell to start next week
 
for Dec 13 session

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Up
D: Down ?
4H: Down ?
60: Down ?

Week Ahead
basically an Up week

Analysis: noon
this is an either or call, the price can go either way, nothing to bias one direction or
the other - except the Tuesday FOMC meeting
so what I'll guess is the Mon session will see the price rally, Tue close down then
after the release - 11:15am PST the price rallies to close an up week, then down
next week which will be Christmas week on the Saturday
if the price were to close up on Tue I'd have to think the Fed were going to raise the
FFR, except most don't expect a rise till late next year, even 2012, although if this
is a w 4 , it's going on a lot longer than I expected
so . but . or
as I look at the charts and write this I'm beginning to wonder if it's a w 1 2 and this
week will see the start of w 3 of a B leg reversal that's going back up to the 1.40s .
that Nov 16-22 correction was very sleek and there's no more PIIGS crises at hand -
that would make the $ rally w 4 or A of a base that drops into the 74s
on the Weekly I was thinking the MA 1 C of the last 3 weeks was b of c to come -
this week which would complete w4; it could still, but now I'm thinking it's a base
and thus why the price will go Up
let's say the price goes up to the lower m50 , around 1.3270 or cf 23 of 1.3310 ?
then begins to fall after the European open, or will it hold till the Tuesday session ?
the Nov 30-Dec 3 cf has the 61 around 1.3140 and 76 at 1.3074 as possible lows for
the price to travel to on Tuesday, $ to the 81 area ? 81.5 ?

chart: partial 4H - Many lines !!
 

Attachments

hi Wallace, according to my own analysis, Weekly and 4H, 1H are clearly down as is monthly. If we close below 1.3249 by tomorrow that would make daily down too (this one is still up for me) That would make everything down and means we would be heading for new lows. We did make a bearish engulfing last week on the weekly so the big trend for me is still down. Just my point of view.
 
for Dec 14 session

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Up ?
D: Down
4H: Down
60: Down

aaah the curse of sleep and 24 hour markets - stay awake M-F and sleep the 48 hr
weekend ?

what method exists that would tell you that the price would move 250 points during
the next session ? I don't mean some educated guess, but set of rules, algorithm
exact method. I can get so far with a couple of methods that say 'up', and a couple
of fibos that provide exact levels, but nothing that predicts/states that there Will be a
250 point movement.
I do though have a B/S method that ignores 'predictive analysis', where one simply
holds a position until the opposite signal appears and one enters a new trade in the
opposite direction.
yesterday's session has really got me thinking about composing 'absolute system
rules' which don't yet exist with my new system. have you got yours ?

Analysis: 2:50pm
the best I can say is Down.
yesterday's hc forms what could be a reversal formation, and a complex alternate
correction after the Nov 16-22 , suggesting an eventual new low past the Nov month
end 1.29
 
the move this morning was impressive. I missed this trade but looking back 32ish was holding teu-wed-thurs-friday-sun. im calling it pretty strong support for now.
 
it was a tricky move. in my short session anticipated direction correctly and buying only but still 3 small losers. thats when i wish i was trading off 5 min or more ....

also predicted strong move due to congestion, gap, strong china closing and DAX congestion.
 
for Dec 15 session

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: Down
4H: Down
60: Down

obvious I've been well out of synch again with what's going on with the price
on the 4H, the formation that began on Dec 3 H20:00 continuing down gave me a lot
of trouble interpreting, which in fact I didn't. what I missed was the Dec 6 H10:00 bar
to Dec 13 H00:00 which was a w 0-1-2 , and makes the Dec 3-13 five waves down.

I just re-labeled my system 4H chart correctly and it all adds up now - of course it
would - wouldn't it.

a major problem shows its face here because my system eliminates Elliott Wave.

the conflict I have is that I've used EW for about 30 years, it's programmed into my
sub-conciousness and operates automatically as soon as I look at Any chart.
my system and what may be the final component of it - aside from learning how to
trade with it and 'rules' - only came into being after starting this thread.
so far as the 4H is concerned, the down changed to up at bar H08:00 , bar H07:00
on the 60m, H03:45 on the 15m , althought the smaller timeframes have of course
several waves within the higher timeframes before a B/S signal appears there.

the conflict, problem is that You wouldn't of course have any idea what I was talking
about if I used my system terminology for B/S signals, so I'm still using EW interp-
retation/language here and elsewhere, and while I still use fibos, since my system is
basically a green light Buy, red light Sell system, don't use price/time targeting, or
perhaps should say don't Need to use p/t targeting, although it's available, though
superfluous ? redundant ? haven't been using it that way so not sure, but here's an
example:
one component of my system that can be used for targeting indicates the Daily will
go Down - is a Sell, or perhaps I should say, I interpret the component as a possible
Sell on Wed, actually there's 3 components. marvellous. don't even know how many
components I'm using, anyway
we already know the price is off the 1.42+ h and can presume it'll continue down for
some time.
but the Daily signal will remain a Buy/Up for this Wed session unless it drops low
enough to change the signal - the weekly for instance hasn't had a B/U signal since
Oct 31 and the 60 for instance didn't change to a D/S until the H16:00 bar, while the
component I'm referring to indicated a change prior to the hh, and the B/U on the 4H
was at bar H04:00 although the green light didn't come on until the next bar
individual bars can and do change from bar to bar, so it IS useful to know if there'll
be a trend change so one can trade the trend not the individual bars, as well as an
indication of the price continuing in that direction for xxx price/time

so my inability to interpret the 4H formation was trying to EW the formation instead
of just using my system, it's going to take a while . . .

Analysis: 3:10pm
EW wise I'd be saying 'abc w 4 complete, Down'

while the Daily penetrated the upper 50 it closed close to the lower one inside a sec
and the open has straddled back across it just above the 50 . presuming the price
drops there may be some resistance around 1.3335, then 1.3280-1.33 ? - not exact
as it's a median line, then the first of the 61s around 1.3270 , the lower about 1.3237

if a major drop, could see the price hit intersecting secs around 1.3150 , though not
expected to drop that low in this session. see cfs from Dec 9-14 and Nov 30-14

otherwise, unless there's a reversal formation retry of the high, Down
 
for Dec 16 session

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: Down
4H: Down
60: Down

as I was saying yesterday about the quantity of components in my system, that's in
fact what was causing me the problem of trading the 1m - Too many components

when I said I eliminated EW, I did, and in its place use 'Wallace Waves'

earlier this year I discovered something that completely changed my perception of
EW, completely disappearing the complications of linear EW theory and all those
variables and attendant multiple interpretations, abcs, xyds, extentions and so on

Wallace Waves have simplified wave analysis to the nth degree, but, were still just
a little tooooo difficult to work with, then, 'hey presto !'
my discovery of a few weeks ago which simplified Wallace Waves into an 'absolute'
wave analysis method

simple or not, there's just too many waves in the 1m chart to keep up with, to bother
with wave analysis, so I have dropped the wave component from the 1m chart which
has freed up a lot concentration, space and time to just look at the price and follow
what is basically a single component method

I do actually use the second component occasionally which is easily applied and as
said, I still use fibos, but don't consider them a time sensitive issue since they only
need be placed on the chart once, likewise applying channels isn't an issue

I'm not sure yet whether or not I'll keep Wallace Waves in the higher timeframes,
they're much easier of course to use there, 5m and up, but I've not as yet done
any research to determine the benefit or not of wave analysis - even Wallace Waves ;


unfortunately the tools I'm using in mt aren't available in fxt, which would better allow
trading the 10sec chart, but the tools are available in nt and a couple of demo trades
there have satisfied me of the tradeability of the 6E with my system on sub minute
timeframes


have to say how glad I am of that 4H formation, it Really cleared away the cobwebs


Analysis: 3:30pm
the last session closed the 60m on intersecting rising and falling secs, as well as cf
and pfs - exact - and dropped thru the lower m60 (mislabeled on that last 4h chart)

I don't see there's any reason for the price to stay up, unless it were to form the right
shoulder of an H&S that may be a very large base completing on the 76s
at any rate while the price may go back up above the lower 61 I don't expect it to
hold there or rally higher - actually I've just cfed the 15m H16:15-H22:30 wave and
the higher 61 is only a couple of pips higher than the 38 rf, so it's likely the price will
go up to the 1.3270 area, as early as bar H03:00 ? or later into the 4H 04:00 ? then
start Down ? overall I'm still with Down

the only news now the Irish vote's passed is the US Unemployment claims later in
the session
 
for Dec 16 session

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: Down changing to Up ?
4H: Up ?
60: Up ?

I made a couple of real trades last night for a total loss of 7 pips. the first based on
the idea the price could be completing c of an abc and would rally to the m61 , it did
not so I cut the loss -6 . - how come EW has stomped back into the room ?
about 80ms later I entered a short, the price fell but then came back up and I closed
at -1 , after which the price fell. - do I have a 'fear of loss' - a 'fear of trading' ?
about an hour later I closed fxt and mt within minutes of the price beginning its rally
and spike up to the higher m61 and within a pip of the 15m rf 38 - HC.

the above taught me a few things and probably requires me to start at school grade 7
'Introduction to Trading' rather than 'Trading 101'. I won't start a running analysis of
each trade I make but just say changing from 'head' trading to 'system' trading is
requiring a lot more work than I first realised, and requires for me at least a written
'pre-trade analysis' before my itchy figure gets anywhere near clicking a B/S
I may also switch to NY hours, Oh gawd, 5am start and do a lot more demo trading
the 1m chart before real money trading

Analysis: 4:45pm
another either U or D session for me, although I'm seeing more up clues ? than down
Daily - the Dec 15 close was just above the Jun 29 LL-Nov 4 HH cf 50 , the Nov 30 L
was on the 61 , and yesterday's close and today's price so far is above that 50 and
above the Nov 30-Dec 14 cf 50 also crossing above a major sec median line and now
travelling between the 61s. WWs Down
on the 4h the price may have broken out of a sec, although this can be re-positioned
so that the price would have to break about 1.3255 to be clear of that sec - if only on
a temporary basis, then it would be a matter of breaking the upper 61 then 1.3345
and should say that a base may have formed based on the LCs of yesterday's bars
H00:00 and H16:00 . WWs Up
the 60 doesn't provide any additional information. WWs Up
 
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