Wallace Euro Trades

macroman, thanks for your questions

my analyses are of all timeframes; I've always used fibo levels so I could say I'm
a fibo trader - trading to and from the fibo levels regardless of the timeframe, since
for instance multi-week fibos are on my 1 and 5m charts as well as fibos specific to
the 1 and 5m charts

determining price direction is based on the same several timeframe independant
techniques, so a particular timeframe can be traded with or without reference to a
higher/lower tf; mini waves trading could be shorting a fibo correction I see in the
1m chart regardless that the overall price is rising, or via a 60m chart when trading
DtD based on the Daily chart

I added a new component to my system soon after I started this thread, but at
present not sure if it's a benefit or liability to me; in theory it was supposed to work
at 100% but it/me isn't functioning that way, so I won't post my trades until I've got
it/me worked out or dropped the component

I tend to short term/scalp trades because I want 'instant' results, even tho trades
may last for Many minutes. however it's better to short term/scalp using NinjaTrader
or similar because Market and Close order buttons only need to be clicked once to
enter/close trades, rather than 3 times as in fxt and mt, and nt has a Reverse button
which closes that trade and immediately opens a new trade in the opposite direction
with a single click
also trading fx is plus the cost of a variable spread, and futures is a fixed eg $4.50 rt
fee so a one pip gain trading the 6E yields a profit, but a loss when trading fx
as well the 500:1 leverage is no longer available from fx brokers in North America

no, never used the 'DAX/oil... divergences'
 
for Thur Dec 2

DaytoDays trading
M: new month, initial rally but continue Down
W: may see an up week now into next week but overall Down
D: should see a rally continue Up
4H: the H00:00 bar down ? and part of H04:00 ? then Up

get hit by the late S&P Portugal downgrade ? I did
what an ugly opening
ECB announcement 7:45amEST - don't expect anything

Analysis: 1:45pm
have an appointment so this has to be a bit early

rfibo raised to the hh 11/29 H09:00 bar, although it's easy to see the price is

heading
to the m61s, price has already penetrated the rf 61 and sitting on the 50 at this time
oh and the price is well out of the down secs
in ms I have a second rf drawn from the hh 11/25 H18:00 bar and the price has hit
its 50, 61 comes in just under the m61 and the 76 above the higher m61 -
a 61 too far ?

in mt I have a sdc on the D and today's bar has come up to the median line which
I expect to be crossed during Thursday's session. a vertical tl has the price hit the
outer sdc line at about 1.3290 and a parallel line I've drawn from the Nov 22 hh puts
the vtl intersection at about 1.3366 HowEver
there's no reason to believe either of those prices will be hit especially on Fri - NFP

gotta go
 
hey wallace ->

Inclined to agree with your long term euro count with is currenctly in a wave 3 down (monthly chart). Assuming major 2 is in and we are now in 1 down, I'm looking for a completion of 4 of 1 (of 3) somewhere around end of week / early next week. At that point we should be heading down to complete wave 5 of 1 of 3 and then pull back in wave 2 for a few weeks.

After the wave 2 pullback I am anticipating the 3 of 3 monster drop that would coincide with the stock market topping out.
 

Attachments

for Fri Dec 3 - good sleep )

DaytoDays trading
M: initial rally but continue Down
W: may see an up week now into next week but overall Down
D: a continue Up ? +/- ?
4H: hmmmm. ? wondering if there's going to be a sell off - Down; doesn't show on
the 4H but the 60 has the appearance of a reversal
60: Down range: 1.3175 - 1.3130

Analysis: 5:30pm
while penetrating the first rf's 76 , the 60m price has had one c above the line one
below and I think has begun a 'correction'
there'll probably be a lot of sideways, some decline, spike down at 5:30am IF the
NFP is close to Consensus - not some 200k+ number

...............................................Prior . . Consensus . . Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 151,000 . . 168,000 . . 100,000 to 200,000

a 200k+ number would likely see a low closer to 1.3100, some rally but ending as
a Down day
conversely a miss or close-to the Consensus might see a strong rally into the close
 
for Sun/Mon Dec 5/6

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: high then Down
4H: high then Down
60: high then Down

think I was the only one who believed that Consensus amount

Analysis: 2:35pm
whether or not the Irish budget is voted for or down, the euro should decline on the
old saw '. . . sell on news'. if passed, there may be a brief rally before an orderly
decline; if the vote fails it results in the dissolution of parliament and an election, re-
escalating the knock-on effect toward Portugal etc and possible price plunge since
theoretically the Irish haven't accepted the loans/terms. time not yet known

the price dinked the lower mrf 50 on Fri, passed the Nov 4-30 50 rf closing mid way
to that fibo's 61 - about 1.34735 and higher mrf 50 at 1.3464
an intersection of the price with secs and the 50/61s occurs on the chart at the new
session bar H04:00 which might be the bar beginning the decline, and while Friday
passed the Nov 22 h , the new 4H sec 'predicts' a new high while retaining a balance
that suggests this leg is a C , completing the correction for another wave Down
while the vote isn't until Tuesday, I'm thinking Monday's bar will duplicate the 22nd's
by making a new h but declining and closing down, although there's the possibility
the Daily bar will close up, and the decline doesn't begin until Tuesday - the vote

various scenarios . . .
the opening may see downside to the 1.340 area - 1m cf - possibly open down, or
possibly 1.3365 area of congestion - 60m - similar for the 4H , then rallying for a go
at the 50/61s , or, no rally, an up open then Down
 

Attachments

for Tue Dec 7

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: high then Down
4H: high then Down
60: high then Down

I emailed 4 Irish newspapers to ask what time the budget vote would be known and
2 replied with: 'by 8pm we believe' and 'estimate they will be out around 9pm at the
earliest' — noon/1pm PST - a lot later than I'd thought.

Analysis: 2:30pm
the secs on that 4H chart changed to 5 and 2 hit the Fri H20:00 bar which as said
hit the lower mcf 50 , so the white rf didn't come into play; and the price dropping to
mid 61s illustrates how strong those 50/61 levels are

on the 60m I wonder if the price might drop to the 1.3250 area again, then rally in a
couple of waves overnight until the vote release - 1.3335 - 1.3400 area forming a
reversal formation. attow there's at least 20 odd hours before the vote news is known
otherwise maybe it'll wander, not decline but eventually go up

I don't know the vote is a play unless you've got someone listening at the door to
hear the result of the vote and is on the phone to you at the same time. think the
price will react before the news gets on the wires. whatever the result should affect
all the eur pairs and all the gbp pairs, maybe some reaction with the chf
 
Quote from Wallace:

for Tue Dec 7

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: high then Down
4H: high then Down
60: high then Down

I emailed 4 Irish newspapers to ask what time the budget vote would be known and
2 replied with: 'by 8pm we believe' and 'estimate they will be out around 9pm at the
earliest' — noon/1pm PST - a lot later than I'd thought.

Analysis: 2:30pm
the secs on that 4H chart changed to 5 and 2 hit the Fri H20:00 bar which as said
hit the lower mcf 50 , so the white rf didn't come into play; and the price dropping to
mid 61s illustrates how strong those 50/61 levels are

on the 60m I wonder if the price might drop to the 1.3250 area again, then rally in a
couple of waves overnight until the vote release - 1.3335 - 1.3400 area forming a
reversal formation. attow there's at least 20 odd hours before the vote news is known
otherwise maybe it'll wander, not decline but eventually go up

I don't know the vote is a play unless you've got someone listening at the door to
hear the result of the vote and is on the phone to you at the same time. think the
price will react before the news gets on the wires. whatever the result should affect
all the eur pairs and all the gbp pairs, maybe some reaction with the chf
More...

vote is essentially a shoe in from what i hear, mate.
 
for Wed Dec 8

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: Down
4H: Down ?
60: Down ?

I started demo trading my new system. I have a tendancy to Buy at the high and
Sell at the low which usually goes away after a while. I did that with my first couple
of trades and discovered the MetaQuotes mt demo I've got is actually from Alpari,
and unlike the previous demo I'd used that had a $50k starting balance, Alpari's is a
more modest $5k, so I couldn't 'rogue trade' as I call it and short again from a higher
high - default trade is 1 lot. 4 losses $635 and 8 wins $500 net -$135
My system is subjective and interpretive, but the most difficult part is only trading
what the system is 'telling me' - which is what it is supposed to do and does - rather
than me continuing to 'interpret the chart'. So it's taking some time getting used to a
system telling what to do rather than me telling myself what to do.
The 5m and up timeframes are relatively easy to trade but I'm concentrating on the
1m chart, and while the timeframe is small and more potential trades available, most
of the trades I've made so far have lasted for many minutes.
If by the week end the wins have become consistent I'll live trade the Oanada account
beginning next week.

Analysis: 2:40pm
I usually only look at the ms charts for this analysis and never gave a thought to the
'other side' of those secs, and they've been perfect, crossing on the c of the H12:00
bar - accidentally or otherwise.

I've placed ?s on the 4H and 60m as I'm unsure of the 4H formation, is it a reversal
formation or correction that will see a new high ?
I don't know of any reason for a new high so will think Down, particularly once the
price breaks the lower m61 ? ? around 1.32345 - bar H04:00 ?
 
for Thur Dec 9

DaytoDays trading
M: Down
W: Down
D: Down ?
4H: Down ?
60: Down ?

"The Irish budget narrowly passed a key initial vote through the lower house of
parliament. Given the structure of the budget votes in 'packages', three more votes
are to follow in the next few days, which if approved, will allow the release of the first
tranche of the €67.5B aid package by the EU/IMF.
The IMF has scheduled a Friday meeting to discuss the approval of the first loan
disbursement of €22.5B." via: actionforex.com

I tried some trades in nt last night but found the ticks in nt and mt were not synch-
ronizing, which was a bit off-putting. nt has imo many charting short comings and I
realized last night there's no way to enter start/end points on the fibo tool, so major
fibos can't be drawn on lower timeframes. think nt v 7 does collect daily data so in
theory the problem may not exist there.
have to also say the mt order entry is crap.
the current price machinations are tough to trade, I'll try trading the 5m chart tonight
which means a trade lasting up to a couple of hours, but I may try and exit a rally
during a correction then re-enter at a lower price - just to have something to do

Analysis: 2:45pm
?s continue, obviously the 60/4h have risen most of the day and reaching a make-or-
break point.
currently there's a choice on the 4H of: a reversal formation, reversal w 1 - 2, w 1
abc, a weak diagonal down H&S, w 1 abc 2 w 3 started. on the ms 4h there's an
intersection of secs about 1.33065 and using the cf of Dec 2 H15:00 LL - Dec 3 HH
the 38.2 is about 1.3293 - the other cf is the full Nov 30 LL - Dec 3 HH rally
for a top, then decline, I'll be looking for a peak during the H04:00 4H bar - maybe
the H00:00 bar, but if the rally continues it may top around the 1.3388 area and then
resemble a more balanced H&S
 
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