Val's Discretionary Trading Journal

[murray t turtle]

It did look like a special occasion and staying up thru Asian/London session paid off thru aversion of losses on big short positions. When that intra-day 10$ gap up happened in ES after selling off - closed remainig shorts and loaded up on beaten up big names that's been selling off hard last couple of months. Bull rallies lift all boats. Next news check is Power spekas pre-open on Tue then inflation and consumer confidence on Thu/Fri. I doubt anything short of Fed doing an unexpected rate increase will stop this rally. Unemployment is down significantly, market called bluff on a recession for the time being. Might be painful to stay short into Feb. Just a speculation of course, no matter what I think - keeping an eye on a price action.

While was waiting for London - put together some scripts to visualize session breaks and stats in TradeView. Mostly not needed but once in a while, around key pivotal point - increadibly helpful to gauge probabilities and typical ranges while keeping key players separate.

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200dma still up on DIA/DOW/UDOW/VALE;
took profits on CAT /XOM....... Had planned on buying some gold miners+ had a good list;
but actually it got too confusing to try to keep up with all that /\the way i like.,
Easy to keep up with 14 positions like SPY/SH/UPRO............................Stayed up doing research in WSJ + old IBD neWspaper$
So bought GDX ,[gold miners cash ETF ]which had most of what i wanted anyway\ may cut a loss on SH+ get back in. SH.
SH above 200dma \SPY is not, yet anyway.
Actually amazing how many markets+ nations closed up FRI\
TSLA+ AMZN + DDOGmade the 52 week lows again+ again.
PSQ[Proshares short qqq] has some good move with 200dma , but noticed i averaged better with SH, swing trading...........................Thanks

 

[ValeryN]

Good video on what makes an "average good institutional trader"

 

[murray t turtle]

Good video on what makes an "average good institutional trader"

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WATCHING it,another stainless pattern >10% in it+ found out why few females do it=LOL
BUT , never forget what LBR noted ''NEVER bring a stinking $176 can of stinking sardines home!!'' [Retail price of sardines \$ $00.99; helpful joke]
Like the 7 year old female said, she looked @ my work + said ''looking good''
MOST US homes are sold by female REALTORS; land or farms+ commercial prop may differ. Thanks.

 

[ValeryN]

Took 50-100% profits on a few longs into strength, closed couple at b/e, if they don't get lifted up in this market - no point in keeping. Keeping a few that took off exactly as expected but didn't hit their targets yet. Also long TMF and SOXL.

 

[murray t turtle]

Took 50-100% profits on a few longs into strength, closed couple at b/e, if they don't get lifted up in this market - no point in keeping. Keeping a few that took off exactly as expected but didn't hit their targets yet. Also long TMF and SOXL.

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TMF has a super %year to date\
i took all profits on UPRO, even though i felt this JAN maybe a major trend change/up for SPY. NOT a prediction; especially since 3rd FRi, SPY week tends to be down
EVEN if SPY does not start an uptrending bull in JAN/amazing number of markets + nations closed up last week, WSJ page with all the nations +SPY objective price+ volume section.
I cut small part% loss on ING bank= worst %in my account.
but i always did like thier ad/Orange orderly big CAT/ Lion/LOL.,
No point keeping even an b/e [brake even, or brake evenLOL] or ultra small loss if uptrends like UPRO.
Dr Suess orange cover book, has smaller green eggs; past the mid point green ham.[subjectiveLOL]

 

[ValeryN]

Do not keep a trade that is at a loss. Just admit you’re wrong, at least for now, and cut it.

Either original premise of a trade or time of operating is wrong. This is what creates even bigger losses or turns you into involuntary long term investor. Neither are good for account growth or mental health.

I’m sure we haven’t seen the bottom in US equities but my opinion is shit if market disagrees.

 

[Overnight]

...
I’m sure we haven’t seen the bottom in US equities but my opinion is shit if market disagrees.

You have GOT to be kidding. You think this market is going to retest, and possibly break, the October 2022 low, as inflation is easing up? You gonna' take it even further and call for the COVID low retest of March 23, 2020?

 

[murray t turtle]

Do not keep a trade that is at a loss. Just admit you’re wrong, at least for now, and cut it.

Either original premise of a trade or time of operating is wrong. This is what creates even bigger losses or turns you into involuntary long term investor. Neither are good for account growth or mental health.

I’m sure we haven’t seen the bottom in US equities but my opinion is sh*t if market disagrees.

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I seldom say this\ but i'm sure SPY has not seen\hit the bottom,2023; why??
I did not put a time limit on it+ 200dma more than OCT 2020 low$
As far as 2023. DIA/DOW could easy have put in a bottom. Its above 200dma
IF SPY has a positive% close in JAN; SPY may have a uptrend bull market year??
I cut a loss on SH\ but glad i got back in SH yesterday.Took Profits on UDOW.........
I value market close+ closes more than my opinion,
43 ETFs with VALE in them, many of them are doing better than SPY.
I was listening to old time Fed Alan Greenspan+ he said he got a dime , for work \when he was kid\[ i laughed a little] ; i got more than that when i was kid
The he said/ it was silver dime!!!!!!,!!!!

 

[ValeryN]

TSLA is pretty exceptional R:R here. 156 and 176 are two profit targets. Stop below todays low. Increased my position.

 

[murray t turtle]

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BUYING stuff up YTD/ up for week/up for month/TSLA is like that.
Barchart has a 100% sell on TSLA, but they're buying it off weeklies+ YTD/and month[I thought you were shorting TSLA, must be long with those profit targets LOL]
Most of my ETFs are also up YTD/month/50dma/200dma.
SH is closing below 50dma\200dma, but that's logical with all the other SPY+ ETFs buying.
UDOW making some nice weekly gains but many cash ETFs are doing almost as good\
With 3rd Fri week maybe pulls back a bit historically/cash ETFs could easy do better.
I also meant Alan Greenspan said his dime he got as a kid, for work= better than i thought/it was a silver dime,