For a long term investments we’re getting into some deals territory. DOCU, DDOG in tech are leaders in their industries, down 80-90%, running cash flow neutral at this point. TSLA is profitable at more down to earth valuation now than ever, being essentially the only EV company. I gotten some for retirement account today while still carrying a large short position in a bunch of other stuff.
Val's Discretionary Trading Journal
- Thread starter ValeryN
- Start date
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SOME of those Tech leaders make some amazing %% gains
[+ lossesLOL
IBD founding father liked to short those leaders in a bear market @proper time;
i prefer shorting, sort of\ with SH \ [SPY inverse+ related ]. Super liquid, proven downtrend\200dma\SPY.............................................
This 2022 bear , in OCT-DEC, only\ reminds me of 2018 bear OCT down/NOV up a bit\DEC down\ in SPX [SPY] anyway.
DOW[DIA could easy finish up this week. I was amazed by my mediocre skills in stock selection, over the years, especially with my proven profits in metals business + some others.
NO wonder fund manager Paul Tudor Jones bought a farm + hunts ducks for food
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SOME of those Tech leaders make some amazing %% gains
IBD founding father liked to short those leaders in a bear market @proper time;
i prefer shorting, sort of\ with SH \ [SPY inverse+ related ]. Super liquid, proven downtrend\200dma\SPY.............................................
This 2022 bear , in OCT-DEC, only\ reminds me of 2018 bear OCT down/NOV up a bit\DEC down\ in SPX [SPY] anyway.
DOW[DIA could easy finish up this week. I was amazed by my mediocre skills in stock selection, over the years, especially with my proven profits in metals business + some others.
NO wonder fund manager Paul Tudor Jones bought a farm + hunts ducks for food
There is time for everything. Including the farm.
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Good tech D+D points+ farm points.
I'm still trying to figure out why an above average fund manager+ worker like IBD Newspaper founding father , ''never liked last week of the year''??
It did get ultra cool[polar bear cool] in temp this week
, but he was meaning something else. Because he did some NYSE work , but did most of his work in sunny CA,%%
CAT is making a topping tail on weekly charts.[BIG cats, i found out \use their tail as a balance when deer hunting, or getting impala steaks
]SDOW [short dow etrf] looking good, if i had known it was going to trend like that/ i would have taken more profit. LOL.
WOW, speaking of carols , music ,last SAT/SUN \ WSJ had a career clairenetist that died + gave away >$100,000,000 net. Made it on average salary /single stocks, MSFT.............................
[He Liked IBD 24 Lessons book]Scaling out of DOW\DIA related loss . US markets close mon. Good SPY\SPY downtrend
CAT is making a topping tail on weekly charts.[BIG cats, i found out \use their tail as a balance when deer hunting, or getting impala steaks
I ended up putting ~1/3 mil short on industrials yesterday via DE (weaker one of those 2). Their tape started looking weak and not buying into their bull story. Who will want them ~ATH when there are plenty of bargains 90% down to fuel bull rallies, which is exactly the kinda stuff that went up most yesterday. Optimal outcome would be that position having enough PL to keep thru CAT's earnings end of Jan. That could trigger a big sell off in the industry. This is my second largest short position after semiconductors atm. Right now shorting industrials seems optimal for multiple reasons. (a) they are "safety" and if market rallies they will under-perform (b) leaders are near ATH and that creates hesitance in buying them, no one assumes they are high growth and ATH doesn't seem like a bragain for large caps (c) they are still priced on a bullish thesis, lots of news came out, revisions up, seemed like a pump at the end of the cycle (d) if demand slows even a bit they will be high beta short on low margin. They lost 74% in 2008 after making new highs when market was down 20%. I wouldn't be too stubborn though, if they suddently show a lot of RS and start looking like a base breakout again I'd step aside and re-allocate for something weaker, let them run it off.
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My favorite forward indicator may not help like some moving averages, but its Hi % [about88%]
JAN forecaster, noted in Stock Traders Almanac. It worked well on SH, SPY+ related + DE today thru 2;00 CST anyway\today.[May not work as well on single stocks, since not all companies got fined+ sold as much as META-FB-LOL]
DOWN JAn, SPY\=down year.
[UP JAN 88% chance of up SPY year]
NOT a prediction + when it fails\ it can fail big timeLOL
[As in 1987 + 2009, SPY]Few individual stocks I've been short of, including DE didn't look like they supposed to look to confirm bearish case coming into next week so closed them. Still keeping a sizable short of semis and a general market, those would need either (a) fundamental conditions to change to trigger exits (b) hit PL target (c) have market capitulation. Ready to increase short exposure in stocks if I see their price behaves accordingly with my thesis again. Monitoring many names and have favorites ready. Meanwhile picked up couple of longs for retirement account mid day, they had best relative strenght over last month, company+price+financials made sense to me, high beta, will do very well is we see a rally. Nothing big though. Not the right market to do big size on a long side.