Val's Discretionary Trading Journal

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DE closed down\ red candle for month + down week, but up for year.
NOT many stocks or sectors up for 2022.DE did have plenty of red down weeks
I noticed my shorts+ close prices not making what i thought they may, excluding today.
For example, SH + related has not made month high since OCT;
same thing with SPY\ has not made a lower month low since OCT.
SH[short spy] makes $00.03 for one week, close to close.
VALE is up a bit for 2022, but plenty of ways to lose money in that VALE rally.
One of the better ways to make money in a bear market includes another business that the business owner can control hours. :D:D DDOG,DOCU up for week; DOG up a bit for week.
I still like to study some single stocks, even though i do ETFs;
an ETF never moVes as much as a single stock.
 
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murray t turtle said:
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DE closed down\ red candle for month + down week, but up for year.
NOT many stocks or sectors up for 2022.DE did have plenty of red down weeks
I noticed my shorts+ close prices not making what i thought they may, excluding today.
For example, SH + related has not made month high since OCT;
same thing with SPY\ has not made a lower month low since OCT.
SH[short spy] makes $00.03 for one week, close to close.
VALE is up a bit for 2022, but plenty of ways to lose money in that VALE rally.
One of the better ways to make money in a bear market includes another business that the business owner can control hours. :D:D DDOG,DOCU up for week; DOG up bit for week.
I still like to study some single stocks, even though i do ETFs;
an ETF never moVes as much as a single stock.
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Right, shorting is a bear market is not a sure way to make $. There is opportunity cost related to shorting the wrong stuff, namely exhibiting high relative strenght to the market. Conditions make it unlikely to lose a bunch unless the entry is entirely random and then stuck to a large unrealized loss. Might also end up sitting in something that doesn't move, like you mentioned. While seemingly everything else is selling off. It is beyond frustrating. Ideally weakening names breaking down from a meaninful area on a volume supported by short-term cycle in SPY. Eg long term trend is down, SPY rallied for a few weeks, a stock of choice was in a range or creeping up just a bit all that time and on a day SPY sells that stocks trades below multi-day support in a pre-open and there is some volume, then you short it is ends up deep into profits by EOD. Just one of many examples. It rarely is that perfect. ATH large caps offer great R:R but can cost other opportunities while capital is tied. Wouldn't short beaten up ones, those can rally violently for no reason. Eg yesterday, lots of about to be bankrupt companies at 95% DD did.

DDOG is not a bad bet on a rally, can easily make 20% over a few days. It is cashflow neutral leader in its' industry, so not a bad long term hold eventually, just not in the middle of a bear market. DOCU is similar but has an exceptional RS and a very high buying volume since last earnnings, it can run for awhile pausing during market declines. No point in keeping either if they won't show more profit the next day though. Both are at the points of either rally or waste time.

RS visually for DOCU and DDOG:
upload_2022-12-30_14-33-45.png

upload_2022-12-30_14-33-20.png


Been watching NINE for awhile and holding some, not much due to the general market. Exceptional RS, keeps going up without much news, low cap/float, potential turn in financials, leading group.
 
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ValeryN said:
Right, shorting is a bear market is not a sure way to make $. There is opportunity cost related to shorting the wrong stuff, namely exhibiting high relative strenght to the market. Conditions make it unlikely to lose a bunch unless the entry is entirely random and then stuck to a large unrealized loss. Might also end up sitting in something that doesn't move, like you mentioned. While seemingly everything else is selling off. It is beyond frustrating. Ideally weakening names breaking down from a meaninful area on a volume supported by short-term cycle in SPY. Eg long term trend is down, SPY rallied for a few weeks, a stock of choice was in a range or creeping up just a bit all that time and on a day SPY sells that stocks trades below multi-day support in a pre-open and there is some volume, then you short it is ends up deep into profits by EOD. Just one of many examples. It rarely is that perfect. ATH large caps offer great R:R but can cost other opportunities while capital is tied. Wouldn't short beaten up ones, those can rally violently for no reason. Eg yesterday, lots of about to be bankrupt companies at 95% DD did.

DDOG is not a bad bet on a rally, can easily make 20% over a few days. It is cashflow neutral leader in its' industry, so not a bad long term hold eventually, just not in the middle of a bear market. DOCU is similar but has an exceptional RS and a very high buying volume since last earnnings, it can run for awhile pausing during market declines. No point in keeping either if they won't show more profit the next day though. Both are at the points of either rally or waste time.

RS visually for DOCU and DDOG:
View attachment 302720
View attachment 302719

Been watching NINE for awhile and holding some, not much due to the general market. Exceptional RS, keeps going up without much news, low cap/float, potential turn in financials, leading group.
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DOCU is doing better than MSFT;
interesting , Vanguard Group owns 9.19% 0f DOCU. VALE is still nice + above 50dma.
Amazing what VALE has done in metals business; may or may not help their stock,LOL:D:D
SH is still nicely above 200 day moving average\ no wonder\SPY is still nicely below 200dma.
I do more ETFs than single stocks.

CAT has done strangely well in past bear markets\1973\1974.........:caution::caution:
Another CAT pattern, did a speed read on another CAT-IN-The HAT book;
the Green Eggs & Ham book [8 million sold,LOL:D:D].Some eggs are green , white , brown, pink; green ham may not be real popular.:D:D
They get on a rail road+ after the rail road tracks top\ multi page downtrend, on rail road tracks.
NOT a stock tip\ but good reads.
 
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Good/ did the same thing on UDOW;
almost took profits on DOCU/ and ALL[not a stock tip]but i dont like taking all profits small. Nor do i want ALL my stocks or ETFs with low EPS like ALL/LOL
I told the metals dealer ,today \ they pay in cash unless its copper or they get cash low-''thanks that's better than lottery.'' Metals dealer says as he handed me cash '' that's right'':caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution:,:cool::cool::cool:[Edit, delayed i was shocked @ something Dave ramsey said in JAN ''im not really against single stocks but most make 7.5% \cant even beat benchmark >SPY average of 12%''
But then he sort of snarled + said dont risk more than 10%, most likely for the whole account ??]:D:D
 
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General market chart formed an unusual pattern. Whichever way it breaks out of last two weeks range it will be a big move. Don’t think I’ve seen both VIX and SPY simultaneously form triangles on a daily in a long time. Dan Zanger thinks it’s a bear flag.. Employment data comes out tomorrow 1h before open. That might hint a direction before the next interest decision in Feb. ADP report already hinted today that employment will be much better that expected, more formal version plus wages tomorrow. Those are 2 things Fed wanna see down not up, employment and wages. And neither are going that way so far. Will be interesting to see how long that China rally lasts. Lots of big breakouts, many held. Took profits there, a bit too fast too much, timing doesn’t seem to be right too.

Price action stopped me me out of individual stocks and gotten into a net short position again. Both stocks and index. Anyone’s guess which way from here. Market does what it wants to do.

Depending on which way a break will be, it will be either a lot of sitting on hands or a lot of fucking around with positions for the next month, as no rally will be supported by fundamental conditions, hence in/out a lot. Hopefully not the later. Might just vacation thru a rally if that happens. Stocks look as strong as ever during those and then poooof, it’s gone before you know it.
 
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ValeryN said:
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MUSIC can help a lot. Carol + Bells.
May take me longer\
but i'll get there\
Eskimo needs a Frigidaire\
like i need your Medicare\
Song = I dont Need No Rockin'Chair
Patty Loveless, vocals \ Pig Robbins on piano LOL + G Jones/ 3,599,999 video views.Album Walls can fall. Cut a loss on DUCU, profits on ETFs. Wanted to buy YANG\ not bearish enough as for mid morn..................................
Building a SH position FRI for next week/ not a prediction. Another good kids book besides Turtle+ Rabbit Race book ; Three Little Javelinas, by Susan Lowell\bilingual book:caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution:,:D:D:D
 
It did look like a special occasion and staying up thru Asian/London session paid off thru aversion of losses on big short positions. When that intra-day 10$ gap up happened in ES after selling off - closed remainig shorts and loaded up on beaten up big names that's been selling off hard last cuple of months. Bull rallies lift all boats. Next news check is Power spekas pre-open on Tue then inflation and consumer confidence on Thu/Fri. I doubt anything short of Fed doing an unexpected rate increase will stop this rally. Unemployment is down significantly, market called bluff on a recession for the time being. Might be painful to stay short into Feb. Just a speculation of course, no matter what I think - keeping an eye on a price action.

While was waiting for London - put together some scripts to visualize session breaks and stats in TradeView. Mostly not needed but once in a while, around key pivotal point - increadibly helpful to gauge probabilities and typical ranges while keeping key players separate.
 
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