Val's Discretionary Trading Journal

[ValeryN]

2 positions closed today - long China and short SPY. When I say long or short I mean directionally. Almost always a combination of options and / or underlying. Eg SPY was done thu shares in SPXS, protective puts and short far OOM calls. China was via LEAPs on FXI.

1. SPY - plan was to accumulate large short position around potential pivotal point, those offer ability to do tight stop. Didn't work out, I'm out at a much less than expected loss of 1611$, active exit management helped.
2. China - it hit my PT1 much faster than anticipate hence I'm out. Good time weighted return, +25,363$. It has plenty of upside but might correct and meander for some time after a strong rally.

 

[ValeryN]

How do you connect the dots ?
Beside screening and finding commonalities ...

What I do is - study and continuously collect information, once in a while a seemingly unrelated cluster of data points alligns then can make a thesis. Talk to people, see what others think. Try to find an expression of it in a good R:R trade.

China cought my attention in Oct as they've been selling off for over a year, major indexes lost 60-80%, P/E was around long term lows. Enough people got fucked there long enough ago.. Lots of bad news out, everyone is acting like production will move elsewhere overnight, Taiwan invasion. And yet they are 2nd largest economy with 3rd being 1/3 of it's size. Seemed like a high reward bet if can keep risk low. Had to go in pretty conservative on size since delisting is a real risk in case of war and escalated relations with G7 fraternity. Those who held Russian ETFs/stocks a year ago know.

A thesis is evolving overtime or might be invalidated. All contingent upon what market does and continious flow of new information.

 

[ValeryN]

Will you stop the automated trading and only do discretionary trading going forward? Or will both run in parallel?

Parallel for now with automated having less allocation.

 

[ValeryN]

Jumped on board. Bought XPEV at open.

Congrats on that trade

 

[felix_arb]

Are you expecting to beat the Automated Trades in terms of risk adjusted return?

 

[ValeryN]

Are you expecting to beat the Automated Trades in terms of risk adjusted return?

Yes, over the next 5y. I went from discretionary trading to automated systematic and shifting towards a hybrid now using the best of both. Automation takes all trades fitting under a "one size fits all" model and can't spot changing environments, but is winning on consistency, sometimes speed and emotions. If systems are broken into enough "sizes to fit into" you will do ok. The whole world is in a trending mode right now and this is where big money are made. Have no intention to day trade so to speak, but using day trading experience to accumulate meaningful positions that I can leave alone for awhile.

 

[ValeryN]

SPY looks like it wants to keep going up. As little as lack of unexpected bad news during Powel's speech is enough. This is hardly a bear market behaviour unless a quick violent reversal follows. Might just keep going up into Dec 13. Wouldn't go long big into it though, R:R is bad. A great time to get PUTs if someone stll believes in a possibilty of recession next year. Let's see reaction to tomorrow's unemployemnt data.

 

[ValeryN]

Swing short position in SPY is back on via shares in 3x inverse, long short term puts and calls over different strikes to limit losses or increase upside if market moves from here. Some premium collected on far OOM calls as I'm willing to hold shares till then if makret moves in my direction. If it doesn't, I can cover at profit to finance some risk taken. Planning to collect move premium if volatility keeps increasing and position is in my favour.

 

[ValeryN]

10:26am PST: Good enough move for a day so far. Market might very well go lower into EOD as price action suggests, but betting on much more downside by the close is betting on the unusual now. Was carrying a large shares position in the leveredged inverse and market offered quick opportunity to convert majority of shares into profits to enjoy today + finance carry similar exposure via options at a fraction of the cost. Now long near-term SPXS via options, short long term OOM, with 1/3 positions in shares remaining.

 

[ValeryN]

Got sucked into timing a bit too much. Out of large portion of short SPY position yesterday, still some long term short stuff on. Went long with a tripple today, it made enough for 1d move in first 30mins, out for now. Made money on both sides this week.