I took the data from
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm
And then worked up the charts in Excel from the data.
USO Roll
- Thread starter xyannix
- Start date
I took the data from
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm
And then worked up the charts in Excel from the data.
Just to add my introduction , I am individual trader , I trade Nymex CL contracts and calender spreads and I am based in US California.
currently I have load of LONG "JUNE buy /MAY sell " calender spread , my avg. price is at $0.95 and I am expecting this to trade around 1.50 on March 20 th . I am going to hold it till then .
I use IB as broker, the default convention in IB on spread entry screen is first entry is 'Buy' contract and second entry is 'Sell ' contract in this case it works as 'JUNE/MAY' .
I never traded USO , need to study this more how this reacts with CL contract prices.
On Friday last 1 hour , CL contract peaked to 46.30 I think for reasons
a) weekend risk premium, nobody wanted to be on short side on weekend for oil , geo political risks etc.
b) OPEC cut new risk
c) Friday short squeeze ( coz most of the people many money on short , so market makers wanted a take some profits back with squeeze )
I expect on mondy crude comes back to around 45.0
Quote from xyannix:
Looks like my spread is getting killed.
Down to $1.45!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sorry to hear that.
I am not saying I said so , I am partly lucky and partly intutive.
I had this feeling MAY/JUNE spread is more safer than APR/MAY spread for last one week with this OPEC cut anxiety, and mentioned same in the 5 th post on this page.
I traded APR/MAY spread in and out for last 2 weeks and finally had only LONGs on MAY/JUNE spread last Thursday
Everybody and his Mom was in the "USO free lunch".
I did not do it this time, because I somewhat anticipated what happens now.
It's not gonna work again. Maybe one month, getting killed in the next.
I did not do it this time, because I somewhat anticipated what happens now.
It's not gonna work again. Maybe one month, getting killed in the next.
Donât worry, I am a big boy and I can handle getting my ass kicked on a trade.
The risk still remains that the market can go into backwardation at the blink of an eye.
Answering the previous poster, if everyone were actually in the USO trade it would never have tanked this morning. They would have waited for a nice spike from the roll to get out. It looks like the USO roll is really not as big of a deal as everyone thought it was and it has to do more with market "fundamentals".
now spread MAY/JUNE is trading higher than APR/MAY
I am planning to sell MAY/JUNE ( previously bought around 1.00 ) for 1.07 , any advise.
I am planning to sell MAY/JUNE ( previously bought around 1.00 ) for 1.07 , any advise.
closed all MAY/JUNE spreads around 1.07 , all in cash now , it feels great relief after seeing this spread at 68 cents yesterday . I wait in cash for good entry again for MAY/JUNE spread around 95 cents
All the locals I know are mythed by this one.
Doesn't seem to be working this time - Can't quite figure it out.
It's got nothing to do with all this China / US navy crap.
Doesn't seem to be working this time - Can't quite figure it out.
It's got nothing to do with all this China / US navy crap.