USO Roll

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xyannix

Tomorrow USO is going to start rolling from April into May.

The last 3 times they made the spread go up to $6 - $8

How high will it go this time?

Right now the spread is in the low $2 range.

Gotta love contango.
 
Quote from xyannix:

Tomorrow USO is going to start rolling from April into May.

The last 3 times they made the spread go up to $6 - $8

How high will it go this time?

Right now the spread is in the low $2 range.

Gotta love contango.
More...

March/April contract spread (the one that closed FEB 20 th) touched $8 and then with good govt EIA stock pile report showing 'reducing stock piles ' finally March/April spread closed around $2 on FEB 20 th.

If you look at last 2 reports the OPEC 4.5 million barrels cut is working and the $8 spread days are gone atleast for next few months.
It seems this April/May contract spread ( as of now $2 ) may close on March 20 th in the range $2 - $4
 
At this time I feel , the MAY/JUNE spread offer less risk and more return ( than APR/MAY ) . If one can buy now and wait on MAY/JUNE spread by the time around March 25 th , this will easily increase to $1.50

APR/MAY spread $2.10
MAY/JUNE spread $1.10


Quote from InvestVision:

March/April contract spread (the one that closed FEB 20 th) touched $8 and then with good govt EIA stock pile report showing 'reducing stock piles ' finally March/April spread closed around $2 on FEB 20 th.

If you look at last 2 reports the OPEC 4.5 million barrels cut is working and the $8 spread days are gone atleast for next few months.
It seems this April/May contract spread ( as of now $2 ) may close on March 20 th in the range $2 - $4
More...
 
Quote from InvestVision:

March/April contract spread (the one that closed FEB 20 th) touched $8 and then with good govt EIA stock pile report showing 'reducing stock piles ' finally March/April spread closed around $2 on FEB 20 th.

If you look at last 2 reports the OPEC 4.5 million barrels cut is working and the $8 spread days are gone atleast for next few months.
It seems this April/May contract spread ( as of now $2 ) may close on March 20 th in the range $2 - $4
More...

Question is, will there be a crazy spike over the next few days while USO & the other guys roll.

I am long @ $2.20.

$6.00 will help pay the kids college tuition, $4.00 will be good for a new car.

:-)
 
Quote from InvestVision:

At this time I feel , the MAY/JUNE spread offer less risk and more return ( than APR/MAY ) . If one can buy now and wait on MAY/JUNE spread by the time around March 25 th , this will easily increase to $1.50

APR/MAY spread $2.10
MAY/JUNE spread $1.10
More...

See attached chart.

The problem is we can just as easily go into backwardation as we near May and then we are in the negatives again.

I plan on being out of this trade Wednesday the latest.
 

Attachments

Quote from xyannix:

Question is, will there be a crazy spike over the next few days while USO & the other guys roll.

I am long @ $2.20.

$6.00 will help pay the kids college tuition, $4.00 will be good for a new car.

:-)
More...

hmm.. we have to be careful as the contango nature changed in last few weeks with 'less stock piles'.

instead of out right keeping spread , one of the strategies I am playing for last one week is get in and out of the APR/MAY spread in the range 1.90 to 2.15 , buying around 1.90 and selling and 2.15 range.
to our surprise , the range is changing at least 2 times a day ( including Asian market time nymex 24 hour ) . espcially when the current APR contract goes crazy high the spread will reduce , today spread was as high as 2.20 , came down to 1.90 , some time ago 2.00 etc..

Let us continue having more discussions so that we all can get better understanding hence better profits
 
Quote from xyannix:

Question is, will there be a crazy spike over the next few days while USO & the other guys roll.

I am long @ $2.20.

$6.00 will help pay the kids college tuition, $4.00 will be good for a new car.

:-)
More...


$2.20 is ok price, but you can get real bargain $2.00 range if you put a limit order and leave it . do not buy these spreads out right , put limit and leave it GTC , in asian time or other APR contract spikes/downs it get filled
you know $0.20 cents make huge difference as we buy lots of lots with these spreads
by the way who is your broker
 
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