Using Duckworth’s Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) system to trade binary options

[expiated]

From the perspective of my daily charts…

AUDJPY has been relatively range bound since the beginning of March, bobbing up and down between about 80.44 - 84.67

AUDUSD has been falling since the end of January. Theoretically it looks like it would be a nice prospect for a short position anywhere above 0.7615

CADJPY has been bearish since February and remains so, though it might (or might not) be heading into an upswing.

CHFJPY has also been bearish since February, but is currently more bearish than CADJPY

EURAUD has been climbing ever since April of 2017. It fell during virtually the entire month of May and looks to be due for a significant upswing.

EURGBP has been on a southbound trajectory ever since October of last year, but the angle downward is ever so slight as to hardly be noticeable.

EURJPY turned south in February, but looks like it’s currently in an upswing.

EURUSD turned south on April 20th, but I’m going to be watching closely for at least a temporary swing north.

GBPJPY is headed south, but it’s at the bottom of a cycle that might send it climbing north for a few days.

GBPUSD has been heading north since mid April of last year, but has been bearish ever since the middle of April 2018, so I’m watching closely to see if it will turn north again on at least a temporary basis.

NZDJPY has been registering lower highs since September of last year, but keeps oscillating up and down. Its current structure suggests that perhaps a temporary swing north is on the way.

NZDUSD turned bearish shortly after mid April, but looks like it’s currently in the midst of a temporary upswing.

USDCAD is bullish at present.

USDCHF is also bullish, but has been falling the past couple of weeks or so. I’m therefore watching closely for what might be an inevitable turn to the north.

USDJPY needs to decide if it’s going to head higher or continue on a southbound trajectory. At the moment, it looks like it might be initiating at least a temporary swing north.

 

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NZDJPY has been registering lower highs since September of last year, but keeps oscillating up and down. Its current structure suggests that perhaps a temporary swing north is on the way.

A pretty good start...

 

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GBPUSD has been heading north since mid April of last year, but has been bearish ever since the middle of April 2018, so I’m watching closely to see if it will turn north again on at least a temporary basis.

Here we go! (Maybe...)

 

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EURAUD has been climbing ever since April of 2017. However, it fell during virtually the entire month of May and looks to be due for a significant upswing.

Looking over the conclusions I drew from my daily charts as compared with price action over the last 24 hours, I’d have to say that the only thing that really matters (pretty much) from an intraday perspective are the daily charts’ short-term (day-to-day) trends.

But even then, EURAUD’s turn south was somewhat of a surprise. However, it was NOT a surprise to the 5-minute Numerical Price Prediction chart, so I now want to evaluate what might be the outcome of executing trades ONLY when these two distinct time frames are in agreement.

 

[expiated]

AUDJPY has been relatively range bound since the beginning of March, bobbing up and down between about 80.44 - 84.67

AUDUSD has been falling since the end of January. Theoretically it looks like it would be a nice prospect for a short position anywhere above 0.7615

The Aussie pairs have made quite a hefty amount of progress for a single day. This is typically followed by a reversal over the next 24 hours. Given that their current upswings are not yet extremely pronounced, I will be watching for whether or not the pairs now form red daily candlesticks over the next 24-hour market cycle.

 

[expiated]

The Aussie pairs have made quite a hefty amount of progress for a single day. This is typically followed by a reversal over the next 24 hours. Given that their current upswings are not yet extremely pronounced, I will be watching for whether or not the pairs now form red daily candlesticks over the next 24-hour market cycle.

...as anticipated

 

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EURUSD turned south on April 20th, but I’m going to be watching closely for at least a temporary swing north.

Its structure suggests to me that it might spend a few hours heading south, so I just sorted EURUSD from 1.1721.

USDCHF is bullish, but has been falling the past couple of weeks or so. I’m therefore watching closely for what might be an inevitable turn to the north.

The structure of USDCHF leads me to believe it might spend a few hours heading north, so I’m long this pair from 0.9838.

 

[expiated]

To this point, inventing a strategy that enabled me to reap 30- to 100-pip gains on a regular basis without experiencing significant losses in the process has eluded me. But over the past week or two I believe I have begun to see how I can expand the Numerical Price Prediction model to include longer time frames so that this will now be possible, despite the fact that one of the system’s intrinsic predictability limitations is error growth with time.

Buying GBPUSD at approximately 1.3389 is an example of such a trade...



In the past, I would have already exited this position with a nice little profit that I could then add to a number of other 5- to 10-pip returns for a respectable (in my eyes) total sum. But in this case, given that the NPP forecast model “assures” me that the exchange rate will ultimately head higher as opposed to turning around and biting my behind, erasing any possibility of my ever exiting the position with a win, I am going to try remaining in the trade until I reap a return in excess of 30 pips (kind of—since I am likely to also lock in some of my gains along the way).

UPDATE: Together GBPJPY and GBPUSD just handed me a total of more than 60 pips worth of profit.