I just shorted EUR/CAD at 1.4303. I think the EUR rise is looking tired, and the USD/CAD long ration at 79% is looking overdone. This might be a really good one. I'm going manual on the profit, but stop is over the 1.4350 mark, which incidently seems to be a nice head and shoulders formation on the 1 day chart.
Usd/cad
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
This pair is in the up trend.
who the ^&* knows what trend it's on. I longed at 1288, sold
at 1301, shorted at 1296 - we shall see. Personally I think we're in more or less a horizontal channel between 1200 and 1400. A least squares line for the last week shows it sinking at around 8 pips a day. I hedged by shorting GBPUSD at 1.9036, currently offside by about 24 pips, but it also looks to be in a horizontal channel between 1.8700 and 1.9100 or so.
Real interest rates are still higher in Canada than the USA, and
even though the trade deficit is down, a deficit is still a deficit
and means selling pressure on the dollar. Equity markets are
stronger in the US, so that might help push USD up, but I think
that may be a bubble. I've splurged on some dirt-cheap put
options on Petrochina, which is trading where it was when oil
was at $77, which is crazy. My theory: with the US housing market weak, mortgage money is going into equities and consumer credit. I read somewhere that consumer debt in the US is running at 120% of income, the highest ever. So you've got government debt and consumer debt at record levels and the balance of payments close to a record, major stock market indexes close to a record and the Nasdaq index at something like 60x earnings: same pattern as 1987. I'm watching for retailers to have a tough Christmas and maybe a hard landing next year.
JC Penney is trading at $70 vs $10 a year ago, more craziness. They should be getting clobbered by WalMart and e-bay. Sears was at $20 2 years ago, now pushing $180, after it absorbed K-Mart, which was broke. I have some puts on them as well.
If the souffle pops, what does it mean for USD? Who knows. The trade deficit should drop, which should push it up; on the other hand, the Fed might then drop rates, and less money going into US equities should push it down. I used to think we'd get to 1700 by Xmas. Now I don't think so.
at 1301, shorted at 1296 - we shall see. Personally I think we're in more or less a horizontal channel between 1200 and 1400. A least squares line for the last week shows it sinking at around 8 pips a day. I hedged by shorting GBPUSD at 1.9036, currently offside by about 24 pips, but it also looks to be in a horizontal channel between 1.8700 and 1.9100 or so.
Real interest rates are still higher in Canada than the USA, and
even though the trade deficit is down, a deficit is still a deficit
and means selling pressure on the dollar. Equity markets are
stronger in the US, so that might help push USD up, but I think
that may be a bubble. I've splurged on some dirt-cheap put
options on Petrochina, which is trading where it was when oil
was at $77, which is crazy. My theory: with the US housing market weak, mortgage money is going into equities and consumer credit. I read somewhere that consumer debt in the US is running at 120% of income, the highest ever. So you've got government debt and consumer debt at record levels and the balance of payments close to a record, major stock market indexes close to a record and the Nasdaq index at something like 60x earnings: same pattern as 1987. I'm watching for retailers to have a tough Christmas and maybe a hard landing next year.
JC Penney is trading at $70 vs $10 a year ago, more craziness. They should be getting clobbered by WalMart and e-bay. Sears was at $20 2 years ago, now pushing $180, after it absorbed K-Mart, which was broke. I have some puts on them as well.
If the souffle pops, what does it mean for USD? Who knows. The trade deficit should drop, which should push it up; on the other hand, the Fed might then drop rates, and less money going into US equities should push it down. I used to think we'd get to 1700 by Xmas. Now I don't think so.
