Usd/cad
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
At one point I bought a block of 2 million USDCAD at 1.1080. If I had had the gumption to hang on to it, I would at one point have been down $28,000, but I would now be $100,000 ahead.
I think with currencies it's like with the weather: nobody can tell if it's going to rain tomorrow, but any idiot know it's cold in the winter and hot in the summer. I lost a lot of money dodging the rain, where if I'd just played the fundamentals and trusted my judgment, in the long run I'd have done very well.
I still don't think we're getting to 1.17 by Xmas, but maybe in January. Long term, a slowing US economy is good for the dollar (something none of the pundits seem to realize, but historically it's been true and makes sense). When the Fed took its foot off the brake, the dollar's recovery slowed down. And that's really all that's happened.
I presently think USDCAD has plateaued for the time being; I'm shorting USDJPY. Also considering some put options: the oil stocks look really overheated.
I think with currencies it's like with the weather: nobody can tell if it's going to rain tomorrow, but any idiot know it's cold in the winter and hot in the summer. I lost a lot of money dodging the rain, where if I'd just played the fundamentals and trusted my judgment, in the long run I'd have done very well.
I still don't think we're getting to 1.17 by Xmas, but maybe in January. Long term, a slowing US economy is good for the dollar (something none of the pundits seem to realize, but historically it's been true and makes sense). When the Fed took its foot off the brake, the dollar's recovery slowed down. And that's really all that's happened.
I presently think USDCAD has plateaued for the time being; I'm shorting USDJPY. Also considering some put options: the oil stocks look really overheated.
Not that you would want to believe anyone who pulls down $40k a year as a financial journalist, but some guy in the Globe was predicting 1.33 over the next year. However since EUR and JPY are both predicted to go up against USD, maybe the place to be is EURCAD or CADJPY. I know GBPCAD has gone from 1.97 to 2.27 in the last 9 months - my ex put $1.5 million over there last November, at 2.00. Lucky her. Probably too late to jump on that one now.
