US stock market in trouble? Discretionary traders post your charts with analysis

[Laissez Faire]

I do exactly the same for the big picture reason.

I find it very useful to “frame” the SPX (and other indices) to see where the potential risk might be (if one is trading stocks).

Obviously, the big picture is always relative to the TFs one is trading.

I see you’re trendlines (TLs). I used to use TLs is a lot in the past. These days I’m predominantly using Supply/Demand and PA. Here is a little tip if you want to take trendlines to the next level:

1) On Daily and higher timeframes, TLs seem to work much better on Log scale.

2) Check out Pitchforks (median Lines), they work very well on indices, FX and some futures markets. However, you’ll learn how to pick the correct pivot points, and then you should be able to see “slopping” S/Rs that other market participants are not even aware of.

I’m including a chart for the SPX (which I usually don’t share with others) so you can see how useful trendlines can be. If combined with the confluence of other tools, it helps with very high win rate and high R/R. Plus it can be very enjoyable to mark-up charts in advance.

Thanks for those suggestions re: trend lines. I'll add it to my research folder.

I don't really put a lot of stock into trend lines to be honest, but I do like to draw them in on my daily charts whenever I can in case I can see something I won't without. Fact of the matter is that the market does oscillates and trend lines can help illustrate those oscillations, although they may not be precise always.

I day trade mostly based on statistical patterns and biases. So, for ES today, we should see at least 4495 and most likely put in the LOD now. We might even have put in the weekly low today.

 

[Overnight]

...We might even have put in the weekly low today.

Well that won't happen, because I'm still long in it. It still wants to tease me like the siren song it has been singing.

 

[Laissez Faire]

So, for ES today, we should see at least 4495 and most likely put in the LOD now.

Voila. Main bias for the day exploited here, so probably done playing unless we get a deep pullback in the afternoon as the LOD should be in.

Well that won't happen, because I'm still long in it. It still wants to tease me like the siren song it has been singing.

Could be your lucky week.

If the Week Low was put in today, I'd say we're looking at 4550 or more by week end. In fact, I'll say that's in effect as long as last week's low is not broken.

 

[Overnight]

Voila. Main bias for the day exploited here, so probably done playing unless we get a deep pullback in the afternoon as the LOD should be in...

When it comes to this month's action, especially it's intraday PA, it's siren song has been Anything Goes. (No, not the version you are thinking of...)

 

[PPC]

We’re oversold on short-term (EOD) basis, so a bounce up would be OK, but to me the market still looks weak on daily charts.

For intraday traders it doesn’t matter that much what the daily charts are doing. These days I'm staying away from intraday trading because I'm on strong painkillers and cannot concentrate.

Right now, I don’t trust the market, so I’m not holding any long positions in stocks overnight.

Currently I’m left with only option spreads leaning towards the downside, and swing trading the subcomponent legs with the market movements.

I’m a chicken in current market conditions

 

[themickey]

.....I’m a chicken in current market conditions

For some reason, year after year, May through to October the markets go weak.
That's 6 months usually where volatility ramps up and we get more chop and downside.
Any rallies get beaten back down pretty smartly.

 

[PPC]

For some reason, year after year, May through to October the markets go weak.
That's 6 months usually where volatility ramps up and we get more chop and downside.
Any rallies get beaten back down pretty smartly.

I haven't noticed, i was mainly focused on FX back then, I'll have a look.

On a side note, today the USD is getting rejected from supply, and Gold and Silver seem to be bottoming. It will be interesting to watch if it will start forming reversal over the next few days.

 

[PPC]

One of the tech mega-caps is running into resistance.

 

[PPC]

I’m still seeing weakness in the markettand the logical bounce lacks conviction.

Mark Minervini seems to have similar worries about the market eventhogh he sees the market from a different perspective then I do. Here is his tweet from this morning:

 

[Jamalx]

I think the next few months will be very tough.