US stock market in trouble? Discretionary traders post your charts with analysis

[PPC]

If you are too fragile to take criticism of your ideas then you should not post in the first place. I posted my bold analysis over 1.5 years ago. Bull market until fed reduces its balance sheet. As long as so much money is sloshing around nothing will break. It's really that simple. If that half assed correction kills you that occurred past October then that's your risk management or the lack thereof but in the grand scheme of things that was nothing at all. Look where we came from since 2011. Predicting a market correction based on 2 or 3 days of less than 2 percent declines is a joke. Whether you like it or not. And if you read my past posts as you claim you should know that I am currently 100% in tbills. No equity longs whatsoever. So not sure with what you refer to saying I am willing to bet the farm. So if anything, then I missed out on the delta between current levels and the highs post last year's mini correction. I currently take home an annualized 5.4% on 8 million usd. Virtually risk free. I can live with that.

I don’t mind criticism at all, as criticism focuses on pointing out flaws or shortcomings.

However, at the end of your in your second post you began to troll and switched to unwarranted contemptuous and dismissive language (you do have a bit of a history of trolling other forum members), that’s all.

Apart from that, constructive criticism is always welcomed, I’ve never learned anything from those who agreed with me all the time.


Anyway, back to trading:

 

[murray t turtle]

Some confuse ''Trouble'' with a downtrendLOL Or in some case an uptrend.With no plan that trader maybe in ''Trouble '', I would not confuse that with market.
SPY benchmark, SPXS +QQQ arent very connected ;
unless one watches them + adds up all the data.
Some could say well they go down sometimes on same dayLOL.
So does gasoline\ so that maybe another connection OIL + gas stocks in SPY .
QQQ has no oil stocks ; oops well oil doesn't even have earnings also\ an oil trader noted .
Feel free to have an opinion or trade-investment;
never confuse that opinion with SPY benchmark, SPXS or QQQ or DIA........

 

[Georpe]

MES

Price broke out of prior consolidation and formed a bull spike & channel with four pushes up. It then tested the other side of the channel but didn't find support. Now we're starting to form a trading range. Price likes to test the middle of ranges so I think we test down to around 4425ish before testing back up; target is 4370ish but I probably won't hold for it.

 

[PPC]

Weekend Update:

The stock market remains under pressure.

The 2023 stock market rally was mainly driven by gains in just a few mega-cap technology stocks such as AAPL MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, META, GOOGL, TSLA, GOOG, and the combined weight of these stocks is around 42% of the NASDAQ100.

I’ll continue to keep my eye on all the above individual stocks as right now they’re the ones moving the stock market around.

It's good to have some volatility in the market again.

Here are few charts:

 

[Laissez Faire]

Here are my daily and weekly SPX charts. I don't use this for any predictive purposes, but I like it for a big picture view of where the market's been, where it's at and where it might be going.

ES completely filled a gap from the 11th of July this Friday. SPX not quite, but might be close enough. Both trading at the 50 MA as of Friday's Close which historically isn't an uncommon spot for a bounce.

As of Friday's Close NQ is down -5,99 % from the current high. ES is down only -3,27 % from the current high. Seems fairly orderly and calm so far to me - especially with the VIX way below 20.

My basic big picture view for next week is simply if we'll rally back inside last week's range or not. Rejection could indicate further downside, but I'm sure there's a lot of trapped shorts now which could set up a very sweet rally if we get some up side momentum on Monday which could get legs into week end.

 

[themickey]

It seems like the correction in US stock market is not over. Sure, we can have just a pause and consolidation, but this time the “pullbacks” no longer seem to have the “expected” corrective characteristics of the previous pullbacks.
There seems to be lots of ‘rejection”, selling pressure and impulsive moves to the downside (on shorter timeframes).
What also worries me is extreme increase in volatility in number of stocks. Seems like the big players are getting more and more nervous.
Obviously, I don’t know what will happen next, but at least near term, I think there is more downside to come, and my watchlist is now full with setups for shorting.
I’m attaching few charts, and I’d like other discretionary traders to share their charts as well

Certain sectors are in trouble, not all.
Technology, short term is pulling back, long term it's still ok, same with Emerging markets, realestate, crypto, transport.

Strongish sectors atm are; banking, Energy including uranium & coal.

Weak sectors are; Metals & Mining which includes Lithium, iron ore, gold & silver.
Copper is weak too. Steel just a short term pullback atm.

I think Ukraine rebuild will require lots of steel, but they have an abundance of scrap steel thanks to the Orcs.

 

[nitrene]

Looks like the fake rally born of 3 regional banks collapsing is coming to an end. Because of the SVB & Signature bank collapses the Fed destroyed 6 months of Quantitative Tightening which meant liquidity for worthless companies like Carvana and those crappy fintech stocks.

 

[PPC]

Here are my daily and weekly SPX charts. I don't use this for any predictive purposes, but I like it for a big picture view of where the market's been, where it's at and where it might be going.

I do exactly the same for the big picture reason.

I find it very useful to “frame” the SPX (and other indices) to see where the potential risk might be (if one is trading stocks).

Obviously, the big picture is always relative to the TFs one is trading.


I see you’re trendlines (TLs). I used to use TLs is a lot in the past. These days I’m predominantly using Supply/Demand and PA. Here is a little tip if you want to take trendlines to the next level:

1) On Daily and higher timeframes, TLs seem to work much better on Log scale.

2) Check out Pitchforks (median Lines), they work very well on indices, FX and some futures markets. However, you’ll learn how to pick the correct pivot points, and then you should be able to see “slopping” S/Rs that other market participants are not even aware of.

I’m including a chart for the SPX (which I usually don’t share with others) so you can see how useful trendlines can be. If combined with the confluence of other tools, it helps with very high win rate and high R/R. Plus it can be very enjoyable to mark-up charts in advance.

 

[PPC]

Certain sectors are in trouble, not all.
Technology, short term is pulling back, long term it's still ok, same with Emerging markets, realestate, crypto, transport.

Strongish sectors atm are; banking, Energy including uranium & coal.

Weak sectors are; Metals & Mining which includes Lithium, iron ore, gold & silver.
Copper is weak too. Steel just a short term pullback atm.

Yes, there are so many opportunities.

The precious metals are fighting the USD, and the USD recently seems to be propped up by the Treasury 10 year note.

The USD is approaching overhead supply on D1 TF, so it will be interesting to watch if any setups will develop.

 

[PPC]

Looks like the fake rally born of 3 regional banks collapsing is coming to an end. Because of the SVB & Signature bank collapses the Fed destroyed 6 months of Quantitative Tightening which meant liquidity for worthless companies like Carvana and those crappy fintech stocks.

I don’t follow banking stocks, and I don’t follow fundamental news, so I cannot comment on fundamentals.

However, I’d tend to agrre with you that regional bank rally might be coming to end.

On the banking ETF, the price is now facing overhead 200EMA and 200SMA, and institutions play games around theses averages.

Also the rally seems to be ACB correction, and if that would be the case, then the impulsive up moves from A to B, and from C to D are an expected part of the correction.