US dollar 'will keep falling'

Quote from Ivanovich:

I understood what you meant. Perhaps you did not get what I meant...I was not saying they won't hike in 10 days, I know they will. But if the EUR continues it's insane trajectory, expect the press conference to stress more "Caution on FX rates" perhaps even a "Undesired volatility..." comment.
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still in a state of deniail concerning the dollar?
 
Fundamentally I agree the greenback should tank more. But, the EU ain't going to let it get too high, otherwise their exports and tourism will be trashed, plain and simple. Me thinks we are do for a pullback, this went up too fast too quick. Disclaimer :D I don't trade off of my opinions just what the chart says.
 
Quote from Mup:

I think "joe public main stream america " who don't travel outside the USA don't realise what happening to their currency and the wider implications it will have on their lives over the long term...?
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sounds almost surreal. I hope that the solution to Joe PPP problem and/or external deficit is not going to be either through high US inflation or increased protectionism. Amen :)
 
Quote from zdreg:

still in a state of deniail concerning the dollar?
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Not talking about the dollar at all here. But I should have known the guy from two years ago shouting "US will be a banana republic!" madly on the forums would show right about now. Funny thing about predicting doomsday, you can say it's coming for decades and then all of a sudden be right (by chance). Then you can jump up and down saying "I told you so!"

I'm not in a state of denial at all. All of my positions are cross pairs, I've been neutral USD for a while now (unless you consider being long silver and gold as short USD).

So zip off unless you've got something to add that's valuable!
 
we are surely not going to hear anything valuable from someone like you who has been wearing blinders for years. take your own advice and zip.. off.
 
Just a thought, US economy is tanking....fast......GDp was over 5% in the 1st Q but now it is 2.1%. Expectations are more over on US economy to tank in 2007. Thats my reasoning behind the cuts. For EUR on the other hand, I believe that the 1.30 is above the rate they want. I agree with the fact that it may climb higher with EUR rates and all but it to high for their satisfaction rate. Well, maybe then US imports actually will do good in Europe, me ponders........Maybe the greenback down is a good thing?


Eureka, greenback down is awesome for the gov.
WE CAN FINALLY CUT THE TRADE DEFICIT!!!!!!!
YUPPPIE, YUPIIEEEEEEE>>>>>>>>:p
 
Quote from rateesquad:

Just a thought, US economy is tanking....fast......GDp was over 5% in the 1st Q but now it is 2.1%. Expectations are more over on US economy to tank in 2007. Thats my reasoning behind the cuts.
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are you on drugs?

can you support you hypothesis by any single piece of data? e.g. retail, construction ex autos, labor markets, liquidity etc.?

you compare apples and oranges when it comes to your 5% vs 2% - both were heavily influenced by housing - when you strip that off you get much smoother path.
On top of that (unsustainable) 1Q 5% GDP growth was partly due to redistribution effect between quarters due to Katrina - note that growth in the previous quarter was 1.8% I believe.
 
Quote from zdreg:

we are surely not going to hear anything valuable from someone like you who has been wearing blinders for years. take your own advice and zip.. off.
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Not gonna contribute a thing other than snide commentary, right? Begone, chicken little! I banish thee!
 
Quote from rateesquad:

Just a thought, US economy is tanking....fast......GDp was over 5% in the 1st Q but now it is 2.1%. Expectations are more over on US economy to tank in 2007. Thats my reasoning behind the cuts. For EUR on the other hand, I believe that the 1.30 is above the rate they want. I agree with the fact that it may climb higher with EUR rates and all but it to high for their satisfaction rate. Well, maybe then US imports actually will do good in Europe, me ponders........Maybe the greenback down is a good thing?


Eureka, greenback down is awesome for the gov.
WE CAN FINALLY CUT THE TRADE DEFICIT!!!!!!!
YUPPPIE, YUPIIEEEEEEE>>>>>>>>:p

it won't help.

it was one of milton friedman's tenets that you can never devalue your way to prosperity or to a sound currency.

you will end up either with competitive devaluations which led to the 1929 depression or the currency will simply disappear as inflation reappears driving it out of existence. only fundemental changes in the structure of the economy can create conditions for a stable currency.
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