US dollar 'will keep falling'
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
The fed will not sit back and watch the dollar collapse, they will put on their hawk uniforms and talk tough, but do nothing.
JPY is a prime example of how it can't work in the long term. However I believe there is some room for improvement of US deficit from USD depreciation if only because the current USDCCY rate is not in equilibrium - and that is largely because of fx intervention/policies in place in Asia.
Housing getting killed, Auto sales LMAO.....no thanks lets not bring this into conversation, trade deficit, save rate of -1.9%
Ok einstein what are your back ups???
Hum stock market hitting all time highs, unemployment 4.8% gas prices down 20% in 6 months.
RATE CUT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN PEOPLE.
RATE CUT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN PEOPLE.
seems unreal but in this game it is best to expect the unexpected.....like in `98 & jan `01 where the shorts were decimated in a logically bearish market where it was best to be short,they pulled the rug out from under with cuts.
i`m as bearish now as i`ve ever been on the usd & equity markets......what i do know is that i`ll have my stops (mit) tight on any short position with buy stops above to put me long if/when they sodomize the sellers once again when/if history repeats itself in jan/feb......which will be short lived at best.
imho,does`nt matter what they do,the usd will be on par with the peso in the near future & this once great empire will fall just like rome did because of greed,political corruption at the highest level & record level debt that has brought down every great society in history.
Just some data from the latest trade defict report:
deficit 71B
Asia 33.2B -------------- China 22.96B
Japan 6.72B
Eurozone 5.24B
Opec 9.24B
UK 0.44B
And somebody here think you could rebalance the deficit with a dollar devaluation?????????
Dollar has just loss 35-40% vs euro
What's the result??? Nothing.
I heard people talking about "J effect" .... but this is not the case. If this was the right way to go results would be just here.
The real problem is China, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Opec countries.
Yuan is pratically fix rated vs USD.
BoJ doesn't allow yen to gain vs USD and now also vs Euro.
All the asian country is playing a dirty game.
There is no way. China has to allow yuan to go up vs usd .... and japan has to do the same for the yen.
A stronger USD would help vs Opec country deficit.
China, Japan & Asia is the real problem.
deficit 71B
Asia 33.2B -------------- China 22.96B
Japan 6.72B
Eurozone 5.24B
Opec 9.24B
UK 0.44B
And somebody here think you could rebalance the deficit with a dollar devaluation?????????
Dollar has just loss 35-40% vs euro
What's the result??? Nothing.
I heard people talking about "J effect" .... but this is not the case. If this was the right way to go results would be just here.
The real problem is China, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Opec countries.
Yuan is pratically fix rated vs USD.
BoJ doesn't allow yen to gain vs USD and now also vs Euro.
All the asian country is playing a dirty game.
There is no way. China has to allow yuan to go up vs usd .... and japan has to do the same for the yen.
A stronger USD would help vs Opec country deficit.
China, Japan & Asia is the real problem.