Understanding Probability

[loyek590]

let's bet on a coin toss
you bet on what the coin will flip
I'll bet on what you will bet

 

[Tavurth]

better party trick would be to have 24 people stare at a chart and guess what it will do next. They have one like that where everybody guesses how many jelly beans are in a jar. And usually the general consensus averaged out is most accurate.

It's an interesting point: That on average, collective probability will be more accurate than individual.
I believe that the market is built so as to directly oppose the collective average, skewed rather in favour of the individual.

Going back to the party, predicting the chart; We must also take into account the groups collective and individual involvement. Here is a nice TED talk on motivation, from which we can see that monetary involvement can actually decrease the performance of participants.

let's bet on a coin toss
I'll bet on what you will bet

Imagine we took this idea further:
We have a website where participants can bet on 10 coin tosses.
We then analyse statistically, the logic trains of human thought, and bring up a system where the website beats the player (p > 50%).

How would you beat such a website?

 

[Handle123]

They have one like that where everybody guesses how many jelly beans are in a jar. And usually the general consensus averaged out is most accurate.

This is just like the 95% who lose at trading, they all guess. Those who work hard at it will take out all the beans and count them out, or count beans at bottom of jar, then try to find how many bean levels up. It is also like those who can't trade buy the most trading systems and fail cause only the few know when they have to adapt the system cause of different volatility.
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So how many other than me will take the trades outside of the orange oral?

 

[loyek590]

This is just like the 95% who lose at trading, they all guess. Those who work hard at it will take out all the beans and count them out, or count beans at bottom of jar, then try to find how many bean levels up. It is also like those who can't trade buy the most trading systems and fail cause only the few know when they have to adapt the system cause of different volatility.
**********************************************************************

So how many other than me will take the trades outside of the orange oral?

my comment was in reference that the most accurate guess of where the market should be valued is an average of everybody that is guessing.

 

[loyek590]

unlike jelly beans in a jar which have a defined number, in the market, the true accurate price is just an average of all the guessers

 

[loyek590]

This is just like the 95% who lose at trading, they all guess. Those who work hard at it will take out all the beans and count them out, or count beans at bottom of jar, then try to find how many bean levels up. It is also like those who can't trade buy the most trading systems and fail cause only the few know when they have to adapt the system cause of different volatility.
**********************************************************************

So how many other than me will take the trades outside of the orange oral?

otherwise, How did an old man like you turn trading into a 3d video game these kids today would love?

 

[loyek590]

This is just like the 95% who lose at trading, they all guess. Those who work hard at it will take out all the beans and count them out, or count beans at bottom of jar, then try to find how many bean levels up. It is also like those who can't trade buy the most trading systems and fail cause only the few know when they have to adapt the system cause of different volatility.
**********************************************************************

So how many other than me will take the trades outside of the orange oral?

I'll take everything out of the oral, and go broke, because I think I am smarter than everybody else. (It just comes natural to me.) Or, if I can get some kind of edge on my expenses, I will be right in there in the middle with everybody else.

 

[Handle123]

unlike jelly beans in a jar which have a defined number, in the market, the true accurate price is just an average of all the guessers

LOL, you get a trader who don't have a clear understanding of price and does revenge trading, I have seen traders actually flip a coin to buy/sell and have no clear money management rules doing so. They use their accounts in very destructive ways, I don't think his guesses should count.

I don't design video games, I leave that up to smart guys who are natural at it. Being smart often times works against you. I thought I was pretty smart when I started and now this old man just rocks on the porch watching sunset with his old dog. "Hey, get out of those flowers".

 

[Sergio77]

That is simply your opinion. Plenty of people make money using TA.

That "plenty" is the 1% that were lucky. BTW what do you mean by TA? Candlesticks?

 

[Redneck]

most accurate guess of where the market should be valued is an average of everybody that is guessing.

in the market, the true accurate price is just an average of all the guessers

All traders..., and things being equal - then your statements could hold water

But..., in the real trading world;

1: Not all are equal

2: Not everyone is guessing - though the one's not guessing do, at times, get surprised


RN