Understanding Probability

[loyek590]

Insurance premiums will also change depending on the past payouts. In the chart below, we can see the compensation paid for crops in different counties.

The future premiums (Cost per probability of loss), will be calculated based upon this data.

View attachment 153565

yeah, we get the idea, insurance companies take one side of the trade and speculators take the other

 

[loyek590]

yeah, we get the idea, insurance companies take one side of the trade and speculators take the other

I can think of a few good insurance companies, I can't think of that many good speculators

 

[WeToddDid2]

That "plenty" is the 1% that were lucky. BTW what do you mean by TA? Candlesticks?

Agree with the 1%. Well, most likely it is less than 1%. I don't think it is luck. No one that I know that is successful trading TA uses candlesticks.