Understanding Probability

On what level do you understand probability?

  • I have a little knowledge of probability

    Votes: 2 10.5%

  • I know how probability works

    Votes: 1 5.3%

  • I understand how probability works

    Votes: 8 42.1%

  • My life is constructed on probablility

    Votes: 4 21.1%

  • Everything is probability

    Votes: 8 42.1%
  • Total voters
    19
marketsurfer said:
No, elynt is correct. There are questions that can't be bs'd.

However, he is wrong about probabilities andTA going together. You need to be able to measure to determine probabilities. Ever try to measure or even define TA enough to test it and determine probabilities?

TA is feel-- intuitive at best-- and has nothing to do with probsbilities. If it did, you would not be staring at charts but rather programming strategies. surf
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what question do they ask I can't bullshit?
 
marketsurfer said:
Any math question or any other question that has a defined answer.
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then I'm cool, any math or mutiple choice I can bullshit. If it's essay like, "What's more important, money or happiness and why?" Then I am screwed, unless I want to bullshit so bad I'm willing to say anything to get a job I will be totally miserable with.
 
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marketsurfer said:
No, elynt is correct. There are questions that can't be bs'd.

However, he is wrong about probabilities and TA going together. You need to be able to measure to determine probabilities. Ever try to measure or even define TA enough to test it and determine probabilities?

TA is feel-- intuitive at best-- and has nothing to do with probsbilities. If it did, you would not be staring at charts but rather programming strategies. surf
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That is simply your opinion. Plenty of people make money using TA. Just because you can't that doesn't mean other people can't.

Why in the hell do you care so much about being right?

That is most likely why you exhibit such a dislike for TA. You wan't to be right all the time. You need a system that takes the emotion out. You clearly cannot control you emotion of having to be right all the time.

Furthermore, when you refer to TA as "feel", I have no idea what you are talking about. What is your definition of TA? Are you the foremost expert of TA in the world? Are you an expert of everything that is referred to as TA?

I can't bench 500 lbs therefore no one can do it!

I can't get a perfect score on the SAT test therefore no one can do it!

You can't put probabilities to your TA because your TA clearly sucks.

Just because you must have failed at trading TA that doesn't mean everyone will fail.

Trading is extremely hard. Most people will fail that try it.

How many people trade exactly the way the you do? If you can't demonstrate at least 25,000 people that successfully trade exactly the way you do, I do not believe it works or can be done successfully by anyone. Also, please delineate all of the people that have tried your system and have been successful at it. Have at least 90% of the people who have tried it been successful?

Also, you state all the time that there are no trends. Do you only trade chop? Do you only trade the market when it goes sideways?
 
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The Birthday Problem is a nice party trick, and depending on your sample size (24+ people), you have an edge in betting that two people in the room have the same birthday.

(May also alienate you as someone who spends too much time staring at charts)
 
Tavurth said:
The Birthday Problem is a nice party trick, and depending on your sample size (24+ people), you have an edge in betting that two people in the room have the same birthday.

(May also alienate you as someone who spends too much time staring at charts)
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better party trick would be to have 24 people stare at a chart and guess what it will do next. They have one like that where everybody guesses how many jelly beans are in a jar. And usually the general consensus averaged out is most accurate.
 
loyek590 said:
getting a job at a quant is one thing, making money in the market is another. You may be really good at recognizing "significant patterns" in the simple questions they ask on your interview and may be really great at bullshitting employers and getting hired. But all that means is you can make it as an employee. If they were making money trading they wouldn't need you.
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Yeah, and? I never said quant firms are able to screen for candidates perfectly. There's no such thing as a perfect method for determining who would make a good trader. What their process shows us is that they place a huge value on understanding probability. Obviously these firms find probability of some significance.

marketsurfer said:
No, elynt is correct. There are questions that can't be bs'd.

However, he is wrong about probabilities andTA going together. You need to be able to measure to determine probabilities. Ever try to measure or even define TA enough to test it and determine probabilities?

TA is feel-- intuitive at best-- and has nothing to do with probsbilities. If it did, you would not be staring at charts but rather programming strategies. surf
More...

MS, look up the definition of TA. From investopedia (although you can find this definition anywhere) "A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. "

I can very easily compare hard numbers (volume per 15 mins for example) and get probabilities from those numbers. Sure, there are ways TA "is feel", but it doesn't have to be.

P.S. Are you the same marketsurfer from forexfactory?
 
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