undercapitalization or just a loser?

BigPunkin · Nov 5, 2003

Flow 77 if you are still out there, I wonder how you are doing trading the DAX. I just joined this forum yest and have been fascinated by all of the input on DAX trading. I have been trading the Dax for just one month now and am getting my brains beat out. In Oct, I had 37% wins and 63% losses on the DAX while having 60% wins on the ES and my avg loss on the DAX was $107 while my avg gain was $63.
I like the DAX because I can get up at 530 CST and trade for a couple of hours before I head off to my real job, but the volitility is getting me. Have been setting my stops at 4 points and many times get stopped out in 1 min or less and then the mkt turns in my direction for 10-15 points. Tried trading with no stops and that worked great for couple of trades and then I made bad trade and chased it before I got out with 13 point loss, so learned my lesson there.
Anyway, enjoying all the commemts They are very helpful.

peg_leg_joe · Nov 6, 2003

Quote from BigPunkin:

Flow 77 if you are still out there, I wonder how you are doing trading the DAX. I just joined this forum yest and have been fascinated by all of the input on DAX trading. I have been trading the Dax for just one month now and am getting my brains beat out. In Oct, I had 37% wins and 63% losses on the DAX while having 60% wins on the ES and my avg loss on the DAX was $107 while my avg gain was $63.
I like the DAX because I can get up at 530 CST and trade for a couple of hours before I head off to my real job, but the volitility is getting me. Have been setting my stops at 4 points and many times get stopped out in 1 min or less and then the mkt turns in my direction for 10-15 points. Tried trading with no stops and that worked great for couple of trades and then I made bad trade and chased it before I got out with 13 point loss, so learned my lesson there.
Anyway, enjoying all the commemts They are very helpful.

Hey BigPunkin,

If you are using a 4-pt stop, which is similar to the usual stop I use, I think it's best to expect that you will get stopped out at least once (or twice) before you take that eventual 10-20 point move. DAX flutters around a lot, but most of the micro price moves are just noise. You have to realize that it is just the nature of the contract, but at the same time you have to guard against taking 13 point losses. That's why I think it's best to take a 3 or 4 point stop and get ready to enter again when a big move starts up. Good luck.

Joe

DT-waw · Nov 6, 2003

Quote from DT-waw:

Something is wrong with the results. Total net profit is $1.49M. With 1.16 exch rate it's 1.29M EUR for 6 years; 215k EUR avg / year. Divide it by 25 EUR/point multiplier = 8600 dax points per year...

Earlier on this thread you wrote that avg winning trade was ~29 to 60 pts = 45 pts avg. Total # trades 762; 45.7% winners = 348 winning trades * 45 pts = 15,660 pts. Deduct losing trades, 414 * 22 pts = 9,108 pts. Total net profit in points for the whole period: 6552, not 8.6k per year...

acrary, could you explain the above quoted concerns?
thanks

acrary · Nov 6, 2003

Quote from DT-waw:

acrary, could you explain the above quoted concerns?
thanks

I wasn't trying to post a performance summary of one of my models. Merely trying to provide some general observations.
The ranges I provided were not from statistical analysis but from looking at some of the trades. The average win/loss are much different than what you've assumed. If you look at the 2003 results you'll see the average trade made over 59 pts. I don't want to say anymore than the DAX is a very good market to trade.

DT-waw · Nov 6, 2003

Quote from acrary:

I plugged in a conservative MMGT formula and the compounding pushed the ending equity past 73 mill. starting with 25k in 1998.

:eek: And what was the worst drawdown figure?

Quote from acrary:

I don't want to say anymore than the DAX is a very good market to trade.

My historical dax database is much shorter than yours, but I came to the same conclusion. Did you tried to backtest your systems on a portfolio: Dax + Eurostoxx + Bund?

BigPunkin · Nov 6, 2003

Quote from acrary:

I wasn't trying to post a performance summary of one of my models. Merely trying to provide some general observations.
The ranges I provided were not from statistical analysis but from looking at some of the trades. The average win/loss are much different than what you've assumed. If you look at the 2003 results you'll see the average trade made over 59 pts. I don't want to say anymore than the DAX is a very good market to trade.

I am glad to hear you say that the DAX is a good market to trade because I am determined to learn how. It seems to be a very trending market and I find that I do worse when I try to day trade several times like I do the ES. I need a trending model I gues as my setup is designed for very precise entry and exit points. Any thoughts?

BigPunkin · Nov 6, 2003

Quote from peg_leg_joe:

Thanks Joe for the encouragement. Those 4 point hits are just frustrating especially when the market then goes my way. I just need to jump back in and trust my setups. Did much better this morning.

Hey BigPunkin,

If you are using a 4-pt stop, which is similar to the usual stop I use, I think it's best to expect that you will get stopped out at least once (or twice) before you take that eventual 10-20 point move. DAX flutters around a lot, but most of the micro price moves are just noise. You have to realize that it is just the nature of the contract, but at the same time you have to guard against taking 13 point losses. That's why I think it's best to take a 3 or 4 point stop and get ready to enter again when a big move starts up. Good luck.

Joe