undercapitalization or just a loser?

DT-waw · Oct 22, 2003

30-min charts, because they give the best results in backtesting. Going down below 15-min intervals produce too many trades and significantly worse performance. 15 sec bars? Pure noise. Well, maybe a guy like bone can successfully scalp it...

Regarding stops. The best thing you can do is to backtest them on historical data. You'll see whether they will improve performance and what size of stops tend to work better. More important, backtesting can show you what indicators, set-ups, parameters, time frames, etc. give the best results and what drawdowns you should expect. You may backtest ES, NQ not only estx. If you want to trade discretionary not with a system, then it's a different story, but one thing still remains valid - don't trade too frequently.

DT-waw · Oct 26, 2003

Quote from acrary:

I took my production systems and ran them against the DAX data I have (from 1998 - present) to see how it should be daytraded. It looks pretty clear that volatility breakouts work great on this market. My prod volatilty breakout system only had one losing month back in 1998. The average losing trade was 17-27 pts.Winning trades were 29-60 pts.

Here's the year by year summary for your info.

Are the numbers in your summary based on single-contract testing (without position size management)? Could you show performance with basic position size mgmt, compounding of profits? Profit factor ~3 is extremely good figure for a short term system.

nkhoi · Oct 26, 2003

Quote from flow_77:

.....
1) Is this drawdown normal for a newbie? Or am I just another animal for slaughter? ;-)
2) How do you know that one`s a good trader and what does it take (profit, timeframe, ...)?

I really would appreciate your answers - I think there are some professionals round here who really know how the job has to be done.

best regards,

flow

1)there is no such thing as normal drawdown unless is is part of your proven system.

2)good trade is the one that follow your plan win or loose

limit yourself to 1 trade a day with a fix point stop loss and force your self to do paper trade for the rest of the day. This will help you to build the discipline and slow down your bleeding until you figure out what will be the next step.

tbonds · Oct 26, 2003

Were you using a trading system while you were losing money?
Or were you trying to trade using your instincts?

acrary · Oct 26, 2003

Quote from DT-waw:

Are the numbers in your summary based on single-contract testing (without position size management)? Could you show performance with basic position size mgmt, compounding of profits? Profit factor ~3 is extremely good figure for a short term system.

The results were single contract testing using 1.16 Eur/Dollar exchange rate. I plugged in a conservative MMGT formula and the compounding pushed the ending equity past 73 mill. starting with 25k in 1998. Obviously the fluctuating exchange rate and taxation affect the "real world" results. Needless to say, I'm opening another account to trade the DAX.

DT-waw · Oct 27, 2003

Quote from acrary:

The results were single contract testing using 1.16 Eur/Dollar exchange rate. I plugged in a conservative MMGT formula and the compounding pushed the ending equity past 73 mill. starting with 25k in 1998.

Something is wrong with the results. Total net profit is $1.49M. With 1.16 exch rate it's 1.29M EUR for 6 years; 215k EUR avg / year. Divide it by 25 EUR/point multiplier = 8600 dax points per year...

Earlier on this thread you wrote that avg winning trade was ~29 to 60 pts = 45 pts avg. Total # trades 762; 45.7% winners = 348 winning trades * 45 pts = 15,660 pts. Deduct losing trades, 414 * 22 pts = 9,108 pts. Total net profit in points for the whole period: 6552, not 8.6k per year...

x-or · Oct 27, 2003

Quote from nkhoi:

limit yourself to 1 trade a day with a fix point stop loss and force your self to do paper trade for the rest of the day. This will help you to build the discipline and slow down your bleeding until you figure out what will be the next step.

I strongly recommend this.

flow_77 · Oct 27, 2003

sorry for the delay - I was out for a while...

@DT-waw
:-)

I held the futures seldom longer than 1 hour... how do you avoid large losses in between the 30min-bars?

@nkhoi and @x-or
yes, I will do that. Do you think 10 points would be okay as a max. loss?

@tbonds
I tried a mixture of patterns, instincts and very easy indicators... no high-tech or "real math" systems

@acrary
you told you will open antothre account to trade the dax... can you please tell me what happens? This really would be great!

nkhoi · Oct 27, 2003

Quote from flow_77:

@nkhoi and @x-or
yes, I will do that. Do you think 10 points would be okay as a max. loss?
...

risk 2% of your account or 8p which ever is less, the idea is you can take 10 lost in a row without getting wipe out. 10p, sound like you come from big spoos world, been there and have no t-shirt t show for it

edit (lost my shirt in case you miss it)

edit2: your 10p might work out, who know http://node.finam.ru/imcf3.asp?id=1...f=1&indval=&cat=4&cai=7&v=&idxf=&curr=0&mar=7

brokerboy · Oct 27, 2003

i trade stocks but rules are the same. new people need to lose to learn. the key is to trade small til you know how to takeout money. don't trade for a pay check when you start!!!!!!!