Mississippi,considered the most consecutive state in the country, was only won by 5 points.
The last Governors race in 2015 (prior to Trump) was won by 34 points
Uh-Oh
- Thread starter vanzandt
- Start date
This is correct. Bevin was down in a big way and Trump almost got him to win. A lot of people forget that state races are close to being local races and it is more closely tied to how much the person is liked rather than party. We've got a lot of idiots touting that these races are a reflection on how the country will vote for president next year. -----news flash-----they're not.
Yes and no. Bevin was very unpopular going into the election about ~40% approval in Kentucky, similar to Trump approval.
Now Kentucky is red/red but what we saw was a sizable shift in suburban voters and a lot of ballot splitting. That is very concerning if you are a trump supporter.
What is helpful if you are a trump supporter and thinking about implications for the presidential elections, Beshear is avery much a moderate and a very different kind of democrat from Elizabeth Warren but no so much from Joe Biden.
The thing that folks don't want to acknowledge is that Trump brought him up close to winning. Bevin's opponent, was Beshear who was the son of a former governor of Kentucky and Beshear is a huge name in Kentucky politics. This is what won the race for the Dems---name recognition and Bevin unpopularity. You'll notice that the rest of the state went Republican including the first black attorney general who was all in with Trump. By the way, the new Republican attorney general replaces the Dem Beshear who was just elected Gubner.
That was an under-discussed factor in the midterm gains for the dems as well.
They gained some seats (less than normal midterm gains, so not as predictive as the dems would like to make it out to be) but the dems who won in districts that were truly in play had to swing to the middle/moderate to win.
So that is not an easy play for Poco in those districts, so don't nominate Warren.
Of course, you would be nuts to nominate Biden either.
What a mess.
What to do?
Biden/Abrams will steamroll Trump. If Joe can make it that long.
Joe don't be winning anything, anywhere.
So if Abrams wants to go to the dance she better find someone else.
Her best shot is with Biden as you suggest.
You know if I buy two lottery tickets, I guess that doubles my chance of winning. So agreeing that Joe is her best shot does not make it a good shot.
My advice to her would be to sit this dance out. She is young and can go again when the normal rotation of parties occurs. If Trump wins then people will be ready for a rotation at the end of his second term, if not already. If she runs now and links her fate to Biden or some other loser then she is damaged goods. If on the other hand, Trump loses in 2020 she will still be young and in favor with a lefty administration so her star and fate will still continue to rise.
She could do herself some real harm by teaming up with Biden and having to defend him. You know these progressives are a vicious crew and it is hard to keep up with the speed of their leftward movement. Just look at the effort that is being put into tamping down flare-ups of assertions that Obama was not woke enough and had bad policies on immigration and was Deporter-in-Chief, etc. Just imagine Abrams running with Biden, losing and then trying to go again down the road, having been tied to Biden. She would be worse off than if she had just decided to sit this one out. I get that Joe needs her. Just not sure she is going to let herself be taken down off the shelf even if Joe is the nominee.
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