U.S. Corn Acres

Here they are the daily comments for Corn for the date of 24-06-2019 from ADMIS.

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market remains in a short-term consolidation but the fundamentals look very bullish. As of June 16th, the 8% left unplanted implied a 7.42 million-acre reduction from the March USDA Prospective Plantings report. However, many traders believe the acreage loss could be even greater. A 7.4 million-acre loss (with yield and usage from the June USDA supply/demand report) would leave ending stocks at just 985 million bushels and the stocks/usage ratio at 6.9%. This would be the second tightest season on record. If yield slips to 160 bushels per acre, ending stocks would slide to 515 million bushels and result in a stocks/usage ratio of 3.6%. This would be a record low going back to at least 1960. The trade should now shift their attention to the weekly crop conditions reports, as the cool and wet weather so far has not made an ideal start to the growing season. As of June 16th, 59% of the US corn crop rated was good/excellent from 78% a year ago. Corn emergence had reached just 79% versus 97% last year. China imported 750,000 tonnes of corn in May, down 1.1% from last year but cumulative imports for the year reached 2.39 million tonnes, up 41.5% from last year's pace.

A study from Iowa State University has suggested that corn planted after June 20th would see a 40% drop in yield. University of Illinois analysts agreed with the June 1st assessment from the USDA that the late-planted crop should see the average yield slide to 166 bushels per acre. With so many high-yielding acres still unplanted as of June 16th, that same analyst now sees the possibility of a 153 bushel per acre average yield this year. If that happens, the total US supply would come in 33 million bushels BELOW the current USDA usage forecast. Keep in mind that if US ending stocks slide to 985 million bushels, this would equate to an additional drawdown of 17.5 million tonnes in 2019/20 world ending stocks (on top of the 34.9 million forecast in the June USDA supply/demand report). The market so far has not given much attention to the arrival of fall armyworms to Asia. These insects originated in the Western Hemisphere and were first reported in Africa in 2016. They have been discovered in Southeast Asia for the first time ever this year and are moving north into China. In their first year of arrival, they can have a devastating impact, as they are difficult to control and can eat through a crop in just a few days.

Armyworms have are already been reported in 18 of the 33 provinces in China, and the concern is that the infestation will spread to the high-producing province in the north. Producers in Thailand have also reported losses. Southeast Asia's 2019/20 corn production (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam) is currently estimated at 31.7 million tonnes, and China's is estimated at 254 million. If the infestation were to result in a 5% decline in production in those regions, this would mean a drop of 1.6 million tonnes for Southeast Asia and 12.7 million tonnes for China. December corn settled down 10 cents on the week. July option expiration was Friday with July corn settling at 442 1/4 with 22,342 contracts of 450 calls open to start the day and 7,667 contracts of 450 puts open. The forecast is wet for the Midwest for the next few days, but turns warmer and drier mid-week.

Traders are expecting corn plantings to come in near 94%-96% with the prevent plant acres the unknown. Crop conditions are expected to come in near 58%-61% G/EX. Cash market strength continues in the eastern corn-belt which helped calendar spreads close higher. The Andersons Greenville location was quoted at +40 cents over and Cargill Dayton at +7 cents over. The June 18th Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money traders net long 143,515 contracts after net buying 32,303 contracts for the week. CIT traders are net long 296,140 contracts after net buying 12,784 contracts for the week. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 51,563 contracts and are now net long 337,253 contracts.

George.
 
Here's the cow folks' take on this, from the Agcenter...

"PRIORITIES AND GOVERNMENT REPORTING

First, it is important to understand the priorities of the hard working government employees who publish the various ag reports concerning the status of our farm crops and cattle inventories. Waiting until 2 pm CST, when the grain trading concludes for the week, to release the report would mean missing out on leaving early Friday afternoon. Releasing the crop report at 11 am in the midst of daily trading leaves the afternoon free for an early shutdown for the week. Priorities are important.

The pre-release guess of corn acres were around 86 million acres. The report Friday estimated 91 million acres of corn on June 1st -- a shock to the market. It is common knowledge May planting was pushed into June, but June 1st provided insufficient information about planted acres to make a meaningful information. As of June 1st 15 million of those intended acres still had not been planted.

In a normal year, planting delays for corn would trigger a switch to soybeans but this year it was the other way around. Rain delays in the crop planting moved in favor of corn. There is something suspicious about this data point.

The shape of the crop and the harvest this fall will be meaningful to the future of cattle prices. Sharply higher corn prices will shorten the days on feed and possibly the harvest weights. It also will devalue feeder prices. With cost of gain estimates topping a dollar a pound in the southern plains, there will be harm to rolling back the cost of a $130 feeder steer. One option, not always available, will be longer periods of grazing making use of abundant forage this year. This will raise the in weights into the nation's feedyards and shorten the time on feed.

In the background looms the ethanol industry. The insanity of using corn for fuel continues under attack from all rational minds. Those arguments will fall on deaf ears in an election year when Iowa plays a prominent role in early primaries. No one will dare attack ethanol in an election year that would provoke farmers already suffering low prices from the trade wars.

The June 1 crop report probably should never have been release due to insufficient information. USDA has promised to resurvey 14 states and release the new information in August. Prevent acres are turned into the FSA offices and those reports will be available at the same time in August. This year will be forever an outlier as to knowledge of the crops on Independence Day."
 
https://www.agprofessional.com/article/48-farmers-say-their-corn-crop-below-average
http://pulse.farmjournalmobile.com/index.php?campaign_id=492

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