U.S. Corn Acres

Here it is the Daily Commentary of 14-06-2019 for Corn from ADMIS:

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Traders are expecting Monday's planting progress to come in near 89% to 92% complete. A 92% planting estimate leaves 7.4 million acres unplanted and 89% will be 10.2 million acres left. If we assume that there will be no plantings after June 16th, a 7.4 million acre loss from March intentions (using USDA yield and usage) would leave ending stocks at just 1.016 billion bushel with a stocks/usage of 7.1% which would be the second lowest on record. If we lose 10.2 million acres, ending stocks slide to 589 million bushels with a stocks/usage of 4.1%, a record low (our records go back to 1960). The basis in the eastern corn-belt has surged to +20 to +30 cents over the board in some locations which gave the corn spreads a lift. The tightness in the eastern corn-belt is clearly due to producers who cannot get their corn planted and are now aggressive holders of old-crop supplies.

China, the world's largest consumer of corn after the U.S., is likely to slash state sales of the commodity this year in an effort to halt the rapid depletion of stockpiles that are used to temper food inflation. China sold 2.5 million tonnes of corn from the 4.0 million tonnes offered at auction. Since May 23rd, total sales at auction stand at 12.2 million tonnes. The auctions will likely end in September and will total 50 million tonnes according to China National Grain and Oils Information Center. Last year, the government auctioned 100 million tonnes from stockpiles. After the sales end, which will probably be in September, less than 50 million tons is expected to be left in the stockpiles, equivalent to about two months' consumption and the least since 2012.

The stockpile inventories are separate from state strategic reserves, which are only used in times of crisis. Still, now that the stockpiles have dropped to reasonable levels, the government authorities should become more open to imports. US exporters announced the sale of 175,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico. Weekly export sales were disappointing again this week coming in at 168,500 tonnes for the current marketing year and 94,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 262,600 tonnes. As of June 6, cumulative sales stand at 5.0% of the USDA forecast for the 2019/2020 (next) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 6.6%.

I have detect and these news:

https://www.russellgrain.com/news/story.php?id=2741175

George.
 
If so many acres are not being planted, would this that the price of corn might rise in the Fall?
Is it too late to plant anything else this year?
Fall and snow come early in the Dakotas, MN etc...

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How do they know how many acres have been planted?
Do farmers report to the USDA when they plant their crops and when they sprout and harvest them?
Is it a requirement or voluntary?
 
Hello.

Right now the Corn futures contract of July 2019 is in 461 cents/bushel in my ThinkOrSwim trading platform.

If exist the wet weather over the U.S.A Midwest the coming time period the price of Corn possibly will raise even more.

Another factor which i do not have data are the export FOB prices of Corn in other exporting countries like Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.

If it is near the U.S.A export FOB prices seems that the exporting business of U.S.A will not stop.

I believe that with current Corn crop conditions,

U.S.A must avoid a little their Corn exports.

For the second part of your message:

How do they know how many acres have been planted?
Do farmers report to the USDA when they plant their crops and when they sprout and harvest them?
Is it a requirement or voluntary?

I do not know how works to that matter the USDA.

It will be interesting from someone that knows these things to write down some comments over here.

George.
 
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